Will a pneumonic plague case be reported in the U.S. this year?
Live prediction market odds for Will a pneumonic plague case be reported in the U.S. this year?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Traders give Before January 1, 2027 about a 7.5% chance. Before December 1, 2026 follows at 1.6%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 0.1 percentage points.
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague in the United States is officially reported by a Source Agency after Issuance and before December 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The disease is human pneumonic plague specifically. Bubonic or septicemic plague without pneumonic involvement, unspecified plague, and animal cases do not qualify. A case must be confirmed in the United States; a U.S. citizen diagnosed elsewhere does not count. Imported cases diagnosed and reported in the United States qualify and need not be linked to the Russian outbreak. The first initial official confirmation must occur after Issuance and before midnight ET at the start of December 1, 2026. Symptom onset or infection before the deadline is insufficient if confirmation occurs later.
PolymarketThis market will resolve to "Yes" if a confirmed case of pneumonic plague in a human is reported in the United States at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "confirmed case" is a case explicitly identified by a qualifying source as laboratory-confirmed Yersinia pestis infection with pneumonic (pulmonary) involvement, or explicitly announced as a confirmed pneumonic plague case. Publication of the underlying laboratory results is not required. A bubonic or septicemic case that progresses to pneumonic plague qualifies. A case reported only as "plague" with no form specified, and a case described only as suspected or probable, do not qualify. For the purposes of this market, the United States includes the 50 states and the District of Columbia. A case qualifies if the patient is diagnosed in the United States, regardless of where the infection was acquired. Cases diagnosed outside the United States, including in U.S. citizens abroad, do not qualify. The case does not need to be epidemiologically linked to the Irkutsk outbreak or any other specific outbreak to qualify. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation, not the date of exposure, symptom onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), U.S. state or local public health authorities, and the WHO; however a consensus of credible sources will also suffice.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Before January 1, 2027: 7.5¢ on Kalshi; Before December 1, 2026: 1.5¢ on Kalshi, 1.6¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
The largest price difference shown across venues is 0.1 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.
For example, Before January 1, 2027 at 7.5¢ implies about a 7.5% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading.
