What is the resolution date for this market?

The market resolves based on the official inflation rate reported on January 8, 2027. This date is crucial for determining the final outcome of the predictions.

What factors influence the odds in this market?

Odds in this market are influenced by economic indicators such as GDP growth, monetary policy decisions, and global economic conditions. Changes in these factors can lead to significant shifts in market predictions.

How is Brazil's inflation measured?

Brazil's inflation is measured using the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which tracks the price changes of a basket of goods and services. This measurement is published by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).

How high will Brazil inflation get this year: what does this prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

How high will Brazil inflation get this year: what are the current odds?

The latest available prices are Above 4.75%: 90.5¢ on Kalshi; Above 5.00%: 21.5¢ on Kalshi; 7.00%+: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 5.5¢ on Polymarket; Above 5.50%: 5.0¢ on Kalshi. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

How high will Brazil inflation get this year: why do odds differ between prediction markets?

The largest price difference shown across venues is 4.5 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.

How high will Brazil inflation get this year: how do prices and payouts work?

For example, Above 4.75% at 90.5¢ implies about a 90.5% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading.