New Zealand rate decision in December
Live prediction market odds for New Zealand rate decision in December. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Listed Expected to settle by
Traders give 25 bps increase about a 88.0% chance. No change follows at 12.8%, 25 bps decrease follows at 1.1%, and 50+ bps increase follows at 1.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.8 percentage points.
Kalshi
PolymarketKalshiPolymarketBest price among US-regulated venues.
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf the Reserve Bank of New Zealand takes the action of cut 1-25bps at its December Monetary Policy Review meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "Maintain current rate" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 9, 2026, as listed on the official RBNZ calendar (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Factors include inflation rates, employment data, and overall economic growth. The Reserve Bank analyzes these indicators to determine the appropriate interest rate.
Scheduled trading close for this market is on December 9, 2026. This deadline marks the last opportunity for traders to place bets before the rate decision is announced.
The market resolves based on the official interest rate set by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Traders will react to economic data and forecasts leading up to the announcement.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are 25 bps increase: 88.5¢ on Kalshi, 87.5¢ on Polymarket; No change: 13.0¢ on Kalshi, 12.5¢ on Polymarket; 25 bps decrease: 2.0¢ on Kalshi, 0.3¢ on Polymarket; 50+ bps increase: 1.5¢ on Kalshi, 0.5¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
