Tiago Cacao vs. Goncalo Marques
Live prediction market odds for Tiago Cacao vs. Goncalo Marques. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.
ITF Men Game starts Listed
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Traders give Goncalo Marques about a 50.0% chance. Tiago Cacao follows at 49.7%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.5 percentage points.
Kalshi
Polymarket US
PolymarketKalshiPolymarket USPolymarketBest price among US-regulated venues.
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Polymarket US.
Polymarket USThis market will settle to the winner of the Goncalo Marques vs Tiago Cacao ITF match scheduled for November 13, 2026 at 6:00AM ET (as of the listing of the event's first instrument). If the match does not begin due to a walkover, withdrawal, or cancellation, the market will settle to $0.50. If a player retires or is disqualified during the match, the market will settle to the official winner of the match. If the match is delayed, postponed, suspended or otherwise rescheduled to a date and time not within two days of the originally scheduled date and time, the market will settle to $0.50. Outcome sourced from ITF.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Goncalo Marques: 50.0¢ on Kalshi, 49.5¢ on Polymarket, 50.5¢ on Polymarket US; Tiago Cacao: 49.0¢ on Kalshi, 50.5¢ on Polymarket, 49.5¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
The largest price difference shown across venues is 1.5 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.
For example, Goncalo Marques at 50.0¢ implies about a 50.0% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading.
