Live prediction market odds for Lost Weekend: First Week Album Equivalent Units. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Resolved 2026-08-21
This market resolved on 2026-08-21. Above 90K was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the first week album equivalent units for Lost Weekend, set to release on August 21, 2026.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the first week album equivalent units for Lost Weekend, set to release on August 21, 2026. This event matters as initial sales figures can indicate the album's commercial success and influence future projects and artist visibility in the music industry.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Above 90KWINNER | 99% | 100% |
<30k | — | 0% |
45-60k | — | 0% |
60-75k | — | 0% |
75-90k | — | 0% |
Above 100K | 99% | — |
Above 110K | 99% | — |
Above 120K | 97% | — |
Above 15K | 99% | — |
Above 35K | 99% | — |
Above 40K | 99% | — |
Above 45K | 99% | — |
Above 50K | 99% | — |
Above 55K | 99% | — |
Above 60K | 99% | — |
Above 6K | 99% | — |
Above 70K | 99% | — |
Above 80K | 99% | — |
Above 9K | 99% | — |
Above 90K
99.9% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Lost Weekend by Phoebe Bridgers has above 6K Album Equivalent Units during the August 14, 2026 - August 20, 2026, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes.
IMPORTANT INFORMATION: This market pertains to the U.S. and will resolve on the Sunday immediately following the August 14, 2026 - August 20, 2026 tracking week. Luminate Data, LLC is a neutral provider of market metrics which does not endorse, verify or participate in any way in the outcomes of any prediction market.
Album equivalent units measure the total consumption of an album, including traditional sales, streaming, and track downloads. This metric helps gauge the overall popularity and reach of a music release.
First week sales are crucial as they often determine chart positions and can influence an artist's future opportunities. High initial sales can lead to increased media attention and promotional opportunities.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of an event's outcome, such as album sales. Prices fluctuate based on market sentiment and available information, reflecting collective predictions.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
The last available prices are Above 90K: 99.0¢ on Kalshi, 99.9¢ on Polymarket; <30k: 0.1¢ on Polymarket; 45-60k: 0.1¢ on Polymarket; 60-75k: 0.1¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
