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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket US / Novig / Polymarket / ProphetX

Miami Marlins Wins: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins (4:10 PM ET)

MLB·Resolved 2026-09-12

This market resolved on 2026-09-12. Miami Marlins was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 93%.

Final Closing Odds

5 platforms

Candidate
Graham Pauley Over 0.5 Home Runs	99%	—	—	—	—
Griffin Conine Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	99%	—	—	—	—
Heriberto Hernandez Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	99%	—	—	—	—
Mookie Betts Over 0.5 Hits	99%	—	—	—	—
Mookie Betts Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	99%	—	—	—	—
Mookie Betts Over 0.5 RBIs	99%	—	—	—	—
Mookie Betts Over 1.5 Total Bases	99%	—	—	—	—
Mookie Betts Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	99%	—	—	—	—
Mookie Betts Over 2.5 Total Bases	99%	—	—	—	—
Mookie Betts Over 3.5 Total Bases	99%	—	—	—	—
Tyler Glasnow Over 0.5 Earned Runs	99%	—	—	—	—
Tyler Glasnow Over 1.5 Earned Runs	99%	—	—	—	—
Tyler Glasnow Over 2.5 Earned Runs	99%	—	—	—	—
Tyler Glasnow Over 3.5 Strikeouts	99%	—	—	—	—
Tyler Glasnow Over 4.5 Strikeouts	99%	—	—	—	—
Tyler Glasnow Over 5.5 Strikeouts	99%	—	—	—	—
Tyler Phillips Over 0.5 Earned Runs	99%	—	—	—	—
Tyler Phillips Over 1.5 Earned Runs	99%	—	—	—	—
Tyler Phillips Over 1.5 Strikeouts	99%	—	—	—	—
Tyler Phillips Over 2.5 Strikeouts	99%	—	—	—	—
Josue De Paula Under 0.5 Home Runs	—	—	—	—	97%
Owen Caissie Under 0.5 Home Runs	—	—	—	—	97%
Miami Marlins spread plus 4.5	—	—	—	—	96%
Teoscar Hernandez Under 0.5 Home Runs	—	—	—	—	96%
Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 Home Runs	—	—	—	—	95%
Griffin Conine Under 0.5 Home Runs	—	—	—	—	94%
Mookie Betts Under 0.5 Home Runs	—	—	—	—	93%
Alex Freeland Under 0.5 Home Runs	—	—	—	—	92%
Tommy Edman Under 0.5 Home Runs	—	—	—	—	90%
Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 Home Runs	—	—	—	—	88%
Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 Home Runs	—	—	—	—	87%
Kyle Stowers Under 0.5 Home Runs	—	—	—	—	87%
Los Angeles Dodgers spread plus 2.5	—	—	—	78%	91%
Miami Marlins spread plus 1.5	—	—	65%	84%	93%
Max Muncy Under 0.5 Home Runs	—	—	—	—	83%
Los Angeles Dodgers spread plus 4.5	—	—	—	—	83%
Total under 10.5	—	—	—	—	77%
Los Angeles Dodgers spread plus 1.0	—	—	—	—	73%
Jakob Marsee Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	—	71%
Los Angeles Dodgers spread plus 3.5	—	—	—	—	71%
Total under 9.5	—	—	55%	94%	69%
Heriberto Hernandez Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	—	66%
Alex Freeland Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	—	66%
Kyle Stowers Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	65%	—	—	—	—
Tyler Glasnow Under 7.5 Strikeouts	—	—	—	—	65%
Total under 11.5	—	—	—	—	65%
Kyle Stowers Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	—	64%
Miami Marlins spread plus 3.5	—	—	—	—	64%
Total under 12.5	—	—	—	—	64%
Total under 9.0	—	—	—	—	64%
Alex Freeland Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	99%	—	—	—	63%
Tommy Edman Under 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	—	63%
Jakob Marsee Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	62%	—	—	—	64%
Griffin Conine Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	99%	—	—	—	62%
Freddie Freeman Under 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	—	61%
Hunter Feduccia Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	—	61%
Javier Sanoja Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	—	61%
Josue De Paula Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	—	60%
Otto Lopez Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	—	60%
Total over 7.0	—	—	—	—	60%
Tommy Edman Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	—	60%
Tyler Glasnow Over 6.5 Strikeouts	99%	—	—	—	60%
Miami Marlins spread minus 1.5	1%	—	40%	1%	77%
Owen Caissie Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	—	57%
Graham Pauley Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	—	57%
Tyler Phillips Over 3.5 Strikeouts	1%	—	—	—	57%
Mookie Betts Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	99%	—	—	—	56%
Total over 8.5	1%	—	68%	6%	56%
Total under 7.5	—	—	48%	96%	56%
Los Angeles Dodgers spread minus 1.0	—	—	—	—	56%
Will Smith Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	—	55%
Max Muncy Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	—	55%
Total over 6.5	100%	—	25%	—	83%
Miami MarlinsWINNER	100%	31%	54%	100%	93%
Joe Mack Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	—	53%
Kyle Tucker Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	—	53%
Teoscar Hernandez Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	—	53%
Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	—	53%
Mookie Betts Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	53%	—	—	—	—
Total under 8.0	—	—	—	—	53%
Total under 8.5	—	—	32%	94%	53%
Max Muncy Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	—	53%
Miami Marlins spread plus 2.5	—	—	48%	53%	52%
Will Smith Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	—	52%
Joe Mack Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	51%	—	—	—	53%
Graham Pauley Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	99%	—	—	—	52%
Mookie Betts Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	—	51%
Owen Caissie Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	—	51%
Total over 8.0	—	—	—	—	49%
Tyler Glasnow Under 6.5 Strikeouts	—	—	—	—	49%
Total under 6.5	—	—	76%	—	21%
Tyler Phillips Under 3.5 Strikeouts	—	—	—	—	48%
Otto Lopez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	—	48%
Freddie Freeman Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	—	48%
Tommy Edman Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	—	48%
Josue De Paula Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	—	47%
Tommy Edman Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	—	47%
Los Angeles Dodgers	1%	70%	47%	0%	9%
Hunter Feduccia Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	99%	—	—	—	46%
Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	41%	—	—	—	51%
Miami Marlins spread plus 1.0	—	—	—	—	46%
Griffin Conine Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	—	46%
Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	30%	—	—	—	60%
Alex Freeland Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	—	45%
Los Angeles Dodgers spread minus 2.5	8%	—	52%	37%	51%
Los Angeles Dodgers spread plus 1.5	—	—	60%	99%	27%
Jakob Marsee Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	—	44%
Heriberto Hernandez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	99%	—	—	—	43%
Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	41%	—	—	—	44%
Total under 7.0	—	—	—	—	42%
Tyler Glasnow Over 7.5 Strikeouts	1%	—	—	—	42%
Javier Sanoja Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	33%	—	—	—	47%
Alex Freeland Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	38%	—	—	—	41%
Jakob Marsee Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	38%	—	—	—	40%
Los Angeles D wins by over 3.5 runs	1%	—	—	—	39%
Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 Total Bases	39%	—	—	—	—
Total over 9.0	—	—	—	—	38%
Freddie Freeman Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	37%	—	—	—	—
Miami Marlins spread minus 3.5	1%	—	—	—	33%
Freddie Freeman Over 0.5 RBIs	32%	—	—	—	—
Freddie Freeman Over 0.5 Home Runs	49%	—	—	—	14%
Total over 7.5	11%	—	52%	4%	63%
Freddie Freeman Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	13%	—	—	—	49%
Kyle Stowers Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	30%	—	—	—	—
Miami Marlins spread minus 1.0	—	—	—	—	29%
Mookie Betts Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	28%	—	—	—	—
Kyle Stowers Over 0.5 RBIs	26%	—	—	—	—
Mookie Betts Over 1.5 Hits	26%	—	—	—	—
Mookie Betts Over 4.5 Total Bases	26%	—	—	—	—
Total over 11.5	8%	—	—	—	41%
Freddie Freeman Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	24%	—	—	—	—
Total over 12.5	3%	—	—	—	45%
Miami Marlins spread minus 2.5	1%	—	—	22%	24%
Miami Marlins spread minus 4.5	—	—	—	—	22%
Kyle Tucker Over 0.5 Home Runs	30%	—	—	—	14%
Kyle Stowers Over 2.5 Total Bases	20%	—	—	—	—
Total under 5.5	—	—	—	—	19%
Kyle Stowers Over 0.5 Hits	18%	—	—	—	—
Max Muncy Over 0.5 Home Runs	—	—	—	—	18%
Kyle Stowers Over 0.5 Stolen Bases	18%	—	—	—	—
Freddie Freeman Over 2.5 Total Bases	17%	—	—	—	—
Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 Hits	17%	—	—	—	—
Kyle Stowers Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	17%	—	—	—	—
Mookie Betts Over 0.5 Stolen Bases	17%	—	—	—	—
Total under 3.5	—	—	—	—	16%
Total over 10.5	4%	—	—	—	27%
Total under 4.5	—	—	—	—	15%
Total over 9.5	2%	—	45%	6%	23%
Los Angeles Dodgers spread minus 1.5	5%	—	36%	16%	11%
Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 RBIs	13%	—	—	—	—
Freddie Freeman Over 3.5 Total Bases	13%	—	—	—	—
Freddie Freeman Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	13%	—	—	—	—
Mookie Betts Over 1.5 RBIs	13%	—	—	—	—
Mookie Betts Over 0.5 Home Runs	99%	—	—	—	11%
Kyle Stowers Over 0.5 Home Runs	4%	—	—	—	17%
Owen Caissie Over 0.5 Home Runs	1%	—	—	—	10%
Josue De Paula Over 0.5 Home Runs	—	—	—	—	10%
Heriberto Hernandez Over 0.5 Home Runs	4%	—	—	—	14%
Freddie Freeman Over 4.5 Total Bases	9%	—	—	—	—
Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 RBIs	9%	—	—	—	—
Kyle Stowers Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	9%	—	—	—	—
Kyle Stowers Over 4.5 Total Bases	9%	—	—	—	—
Griffin Conine Over 0.5 Home Runs	2%	—	—	—	14%
Teoscar Hernandez Over 0.5 Home Runs	4%	—	—	—	12%
Freddie Freeman Over 0.5 Hits	8%	—	—	—	—
Mookie Betts Over 2.5 Hits	8%	—	—	—	—
Los Angeles Dodgers spread minus 4.5	—	—	—	—	8%
Alex Freeland Over 0.5 Home Runs	7%	—	—	—	8%
Tommy Edman Over 0.5 Home Runs	2%	—	—	—	11%
Freddie Freeman Over 0.5 Stolen Bases	7%	—	—	—	—
Otto Lopez Over 0.5 Home Runs	3%	—	—	—	8%
Freddie Freeman Over 2.5 Hits	5%	—	—	—	—
Joe Mack Over 0.5 Home Runs	5%	—	—	—	—
Kyle Stowers Over 3.5 Total Bases	5%	—	—	—	—
Mookie Betts Over 3.5 Hits	4%	—	—	—	—
Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Hits	3%	—	—	—	—
Jakob Marsee Over 0.5 Home Runs	3%	—	—	—	—
Kyle Stowers Over 2.5 Hits	3%	—	—	—	—
Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases	2%	—	—	—	—
Javier Sanoja Over 0.5 Home Runs	2%	—	—	—	—
Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 Home Runs	2%	—	—	—	—
Mookie Betts Over 1.5 Home Runs	2%	—	—	—	—
Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Home Runs	1%	—	—	—	—
Freddie Freeman Over 3.5 Hits	1%	—	—	—	—
Tyler Glasnow Over 17.5 Pitcher Outs	1%	—	—	—	—
Tyler Phillips Over 13.5 Pitcher Outs	1%	—	—	—	—
Tyler Phillips Over 4.5 Strikeouts	1%	—	—	—	—
Tyler Phillips Over 5.5 Strikeouts	1%	—	—	—	—
Tyler Phillips Over 6.5 Strikeouts	1%	—	—	—	—
Tyler Glasnow Over 10.5 Strikeouts	1%	—	—	—	—
Tyler Glasnow Over 8.5 Strikeouts	1%	—	—	—	—
Tyler Glasnow Over 9.5 Strikeouts	1%	—	—	—	—
Tyler Glasnow Over 3.5 Earned Runs	0%	—	—	—	—
Tyler Phillips Over 2.5 Earned Runs	0%	—	—	—	—
Tyler Phillips Over 3.5 Earned Runs	0%	—	—	—	—
Tyler Phillips Over 4.5 Earned Runs	0%	—	—	—	—
Over 2.5 runs scored	—	—	—	—	—
Total over 3.5	—	—	—	—	—
Total over 4.5	—	—	—	—	—
Total over 5.5	—	—	—	—	—

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Novig and Polymarket and Polymarket US and ProphetX.

Rules for Candidate:

Kalshi

Primary Rule

If Miami wins the Los Angeles D vs Miami professional baseball game originally scheduled for Sep 12, 2026 at 4:10 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The following market refers to the Los Angeles D vs Miami professional baseball game originally scheduled for Sep 12, 2026 at 4:10 PM EDT. If this game is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled game has finished (within two days). If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over two days away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Resolution Oracles

Kalshi Rules

Novig

Primary Rule

Miami Marlins in Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins (MLB); settled by Novig.

Edge Cases

If the contract cannot be settled on the stated outcome, Novig settles it at fair market value (FMV) instead of refunding it.

Polymarket

Primary Rule

In the upcoming MLB game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Miami Marlins, scheduled for September 12 at 4:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Los Angeles Dodgers" if the Los Angeles Dodgers win the game. This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Resolution Oracles

UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources

Polymarket US

Primary Rule

This market will settle to the winner of the Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins MLB game scheduled for 2026-09-12 at 4:10PM ET. Extra innings are included if played. If the game is delayed, postponed, or suspended and not rescheduled to a date within two weeks of the originally scheduled date, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from MLB.

ProphetX

Primary Rule

Sports moneyline - resolves based on official game outcome per ProphetX Prediction Rules

Resolution Oracles

ProphetX Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins (4:10 PM ET) prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Novig, Polymarket, ProphetX in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.

What were the last available Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins (4:10 PM ET) odds?

The last available prices are Miami Marlins: 99.5¢ on Kalshi, 99.9¢ on Polymarket, 93.2¢ on ProphetX, 30.5¢ on Polymarket US, 53.5¢ on Novig; Los Angeles Dodgers: 0.5¢ on Kalshi, 0.1¢ on Polymarket, 9.3¢ on ProphetX, 69.5¢ on Polymarket US, 46.5¢ on Novig. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.

Why do Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins (4:10 PM ET) odds vary across prediction markets?

The largest price difference shown across venues is 69.4 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.

How do Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins (4:10 PM ET) prediction market payouts work?

For example, Miami Marlins at 75.3¢ implies about a 75.3% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading. Historical prices alone do not identify the winning outcome.

Miami Marlins Wins: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins (4:10 PM ET)

Miami Marlins Wins: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins (4:10 PM ET)

About This Market

Price History

Final Closing Odds

Resolution Oracles

Frequently Asked Questions

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Miami Marlins Wins: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins (4:10 PM ET)

Miami Marlins Wins: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins (4:10 PM ET)

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Price History

Final Closing Odds

Resolution Oracles

Market Rulebook: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins (4:10 PM ET)

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