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Live prediction market odds for Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 PM ET). Compare prices across Kalshi and Novig and Polymarket and ProphetX.

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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Novig / Polymarket / ProphetX

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Miami Marlins Wins: Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 PM ET)

MLB·Resolved 2026-09-16

This market resolved on 2026-09-16. Miami Marlins was the officially declared outcome.

About This Market

Miami Marlins vs.

Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 PM ET): MLB game held on 2026-09-16. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Final Closing Odds

4 platforms
Candidate
Kalshi
Novig
Polymarket
ProphetX
Merrill Kelly Over 6.5 Strikeouts
100%—100%—
Merrill Kelly Over 7.5 Strikeouts
100%—100%—
Ryan Gusto Over 1.5 Strikeouts
100%—100%—
Ryan Gusto Over 2.5 Strikeouts
100%—100%—
Ketel Marte Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———
Kyle Stowers Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———
Miami Marlins spread plus 4.5
———95%
Miami Marlins spread plus 2.5
——0%94%
Total under 12.5
———93%
Miami Marlins spread plus 3.5
———93%
Arizona Diamondbacks spread plus 3.5
———88%
Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 Home Runs
——82%91%
Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 Home Runs
——81%89%
Ketel Marte Under 0.5 Home Runs
——81%85%
Miami Marlins spread plus 1.5
—74%1%90%
Ryan Gusto Under 6.5 Strikeouts
——82%—
Ryan Gusto Under 7.5 Strikeouts
——82%—
Kyle Stowers Under 0.5 Home Runs
——81%83%
Total under 11.5
———82%
Lars Nootbaar Under 1.5 Home Runs
——81%—
Merrill Kelly Over 1.5 Strikeouts
99%—81%—
Merrill Kelly Over 2.5 Strikeouts
99%—81%—
Agustin Ramirez Under 1.5 Home Runs
——81%—
Geraldo Perdomo Under 0.5 Home Runs
——81%—
Otto Lopez Under 0.5 Home Runs
——81%—
Xavier Edwards Under 1.5 Home Runs
——81%—
Agustin Ramirez Under 0.5 Home Runs
——80%—
Gabriel Moreno Under 1.5 Home Runs
——80%—
Geraldo Perdomo Under 1.5 Home Runs
——80%—
Heriberto Hernandez Under 1.5 Home Runs
——80%—
Jakob Marsee Under 1.5 Home Runs
——80%—
Otto Lopez Under 1.5 Home Runs
——80%—
Xavier Edwards Under 0.5 Home Runs
——80%—
Jose Fernandez Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———79%
Ryan Waldschmidt Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———79%
Arizona Diamondbacks spread plus 4.5
———78%
Jose Fernandez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———76%
Merrill Kelly Over 3.5 Strikeouts
100%—81%68%
Total under 10.5
—66%100%81%
Otto Lopez Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——95%50%
Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——81%61%
Otto Lopez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——81%58%
Total under 9.5
—62%100%72%
Geraldo Perdomo Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——81%51%
Lars Nootbaar Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——81%51%
Arizona Diamondbacks spread plus 2.5
—61%100%71%
Xavier Edwards Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——81%51%
Corbin Carroll Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——81%50%
Jakob Marsee Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——81%50%
Pavin Smith Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———65%
Ketel Marte Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——81%48%
Agustin Ramirez Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———64%
Joe Mack Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———64%
Arizona Diamondbacks spread plus 1.0
———63%
James McCann Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———60%
Miami Marlins spread plus 1.0
———58%
Miami Marlins spread minus 1.5
1%59%100%57%
Corbin Carroll Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
18%—95%—
Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
33%—95%56%
Griffin Conine Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———55%
Javier Sanoja Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———55%
Nolan Arenado Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———55%
Kyle Stowers Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
14%—95%—
Total over 8.5
1%57%100%51%
Ketel Marte Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
13%—95%—
Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
65%—19%54%
Nolan Arenado Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———53%
Ryan Gusto Over 3.5 Strikeouts
100%—100%53%
Griffin Conine Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———52%
Javier Sanoja Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———52%
Kyle Stowers Over 0.5 Home Runs
1%—81%23%
Total under 9.0
———51%
Total over 9.0
———50%
James McCann Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———50%
Ryan Gusto Under 3.5 Strikeouts
——0%50%
Merrill Kelly Over 4.5 Strikeouts
100%—100%49%
Ketel Marte Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
48%—19%61%
Joe Mack Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———48%
Total under 8.5
—43%100%51%
Ryan Waldschmidt Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———46%
Arizona Diamondbacks spread minus 1.0
———46%
Arizona Diamondbacks spread plus 1.5
—41%100%46%
Agustin Ramirez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———43%
Total under 5.5
———42%
Total under 7.5
———41%
Lars Nootbaar Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——19%59%
Pavin Smith Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———39%
Corbin Carroll Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
58%—19%—
Miami Marlins spread minus 1.0
———38%
Geraldo Perdomo Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——19%57%
Jakob Marsee Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——19%56%
Heriberto Hernandez Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——19%53%
Xavier Edwards Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——19%52%
Miami Marlins spread minus 2.5
1%39%100%27%
Kyle Stowers Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
44%—19%—
Total over 9.5
1%38%100%25%
Heriberto Hernandez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——5%57%
Gabriel Moreno Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——19%42%
Total over 10.5
1%35%100%23%
Kyle Stowers Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
——5%51%
Merrill Kelly Under 3.5 Strikeouts
——19%37%
Corbin Carroll Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
37%—19%—
Ketel Marte Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
37%—19%—
Miami Marlins spread minus 4.5
———25%
Total under 6.5
———22%
Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 Home Runs
1%—20%—
Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 Home Runs
——20%—
Geraldo Perdomo Over 1.5 Home Runs
——20%—
Heriberto Hernandez Over 1.5 Home Runs
——20%—
Jakob Marsee Over 1.5 Home Runs
——20%—
Ketel Marte Over 1.5 Home Runs
1%—20%—
Otto Lopez Over 1.5 Home Runs
——20%—
Xavier Edwards Over 0.5 Home Runs
——20%—
Ketel Marte Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
20%—19%—
Arizona Diamondbacks spread minus 1.5
1%26%1%13%
Agustin Ramirez Over 1.5 Home Runs
——19%—
Ketel Marte Over 0.5 Home Runs
20%—19%19%
Xavier Edwards Over 1.5 Home Runs
——19%—
Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 Home Runs
1%—19%—
Lars Nootbaar Over 1.5 Home Runs
——19%—
Merrill Kelly Under 1.5 Strikeouts
——19%—
Merrill Kelly Under 2.5 Strikeouts
——19%—
Heriberto Hernandez Over 0.5 Home Runs
——19%18%
Ryan Gusto Over 6.5 Strikeouts
1%—18%—
Ryan Gusto Over 7.5 Strikeouts
——18%—
Corbin Carroll Over 0.5 Home Runs
1%—19%16%
Lars Nootbaar Over 0.5 Home Runs
——18%17%
Griffin Conine Over 0.5 Home Runs
———17%
Kyle Stowers Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
14%—19%—
Agustin Ramirez Over 0.5 Home Runs
——20%10%
Nolan Arenado Over 0.5 Home Runs
———14%
Otto Lopez Over 0.5 Home Runs
——19%10%
Geraldo Perdomo Over 0.5 Home Runs
——19%9%
James McCann Over 0.5 Home Runs
———12%
Joe Mack Over 0.5 Home Runs
———12%
Corbin Carroll Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
3%—19%—
Arizona Diamondbacks spread minus 2.5
1%—0%10%
Gabriel Moreno Over 0.5 Home Runs
——100%10%
Jakob Marsee Over 0.5 Home Runs
——100%10%
Arizona Diamondbacks spread minus 4.5
———8%
Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 Home Runs
——0%—
Jakob Marsee Under 0.5 Home Runs
——0%—
Merrill Kelly Under 6.5 Strikeouts
——0%—
Merrill Kelly Under 7.5 Strikeouts
——0%—
Ryan Gusto Under 1.5 Strikeouts
——0%—
Ryan Gusto Under 2.5 Strikeouts
——0%—
Arizona Diamondbacks
————
Arizona wins by over 3.5 runs
————
Corbin Carroll Over 0.5 Hits
————
Corbin Carroll Over 0.5 RBIs
————
Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 Hits
————
Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 RBIs
————
Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 Total Bases
————
Corbin Carroll Over 2.5 Hits
————
Corbin Carroll Over 2.5 RBIs
————
Corbin Carroll Over 2.5 Total Bases
————
Corbin Carroll Over 3.5 Hits
————
Corbin Carroll Over 3.5 Total Bases
————
Corbin Carroll Over 4.5 Total Bases
————
Corbin Carroll Over 5.5 Total Bases
————
Ketel Marte Over 0.5 Hits
————
Ketel Marte Over 0.5 RBIs
————
Ketel Marte Over 1.5 Hits
————
Ketel Marte Over 1.5 RBIs
————
Ketel Marte Over 1.5 Total Bases
————
Ketel Marte Over 2.5 Hits
————
Ketel Marte Over 2.5 Total Bases
————
Ketel Marte Over 3.5 Hits
————
Ketel Marte Over 3.5 Total Bases
————
Ketel Marte Over 4.5 Total Bases
————
Ketel Marte Over 5.5 Total Bases
————
Kyle Stowers Over 0.5 Hits
————
Kyle Stowers Over 0.5 RBIs
————
Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 Hits
————
Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 RBIs
————
Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 Total Bases
————
Kyle Stowers Over 2.5 Hits
————
Kyle Stowers Over 2.5 Total Bases
————
Kyle Stowers Over 3.5 Total Bases
————
Kyle Stowers Over 4.5 Total Bases
————
Merrill Kelly Over 15.5 Pitcher Outs
————
Merrill Kelly Over 5.5 Strikeouts
————
Miami MarlinsWINNER
————
Miami Marlins spread minus 3.5
————
Over 13.5 runs scored
————
Over 3.5 runs scored
————
Over 4.5 runs scored
————
Ryan Gusto Over 14.5 Pitcher Outs
————
Ryan Gusto Over 4.5 Strikeouts
————
Ryan Gusto Over 5.5 Strikeouts
————
Total over 11.5
————
Total over 12.5
————
Total over 5.5
————
Total over 6.5
————
Total over 7.5
————

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
ProphetXProphetX
ProphetX Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread0.0%
Platforms0
Candidates2
Winner

Arizona Diamondbacks

0.0% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 PM ET)

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Novig and Polymarket and Polymarket US and ProphetX.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Arizona wins the Miami vs Arizona professional baseball game originally scheduled for Sep 16, 2026 at 9:40 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The following market refers to the Miami vs Arizona professional baseball game originally scheduled for Sep 16, 2026 at 9:40 PM EDT. If this game is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled game has finished (within two days). If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over two days away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
NovigNovig
Primary Rule

Arizona Diamondbacks in Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks (MLB); settled by Novig.

Edge Cases

If the contract cannot be settled on the stated outcome, Novig settles it at fair market value (FMV) instead of refunding it.

PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

In the upcoming MLB game between the Miami Marlins and Arizona Diamondbacks, scheduled for September 16 at 9:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins win the game. This market will resolve to "Arizona Diamondbacks" if the Arizona Diamondbacks win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to the winner of the Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks MLB game scheduled for 2026-09-16 at 9:40PM ET. Extra innings are included if played. If the game is delayed, postponed, or suspended and not rescheduled to a date within two weeks of the originally scheduled date, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from MLB.

ProphetXProphetX
Primary Rule

Sports moneyline - resolves based on official game outcome per ProphetX Prediction Rules

Resolution Oracles
ProphetX Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 PM ET) prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Venue prices are not currently available on this page. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.

What were the last available Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 PM ET) odds?

No historical prices are available on this page. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.

Why do Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 PM ET) odds vary across prediction markets?

Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A cross-platform comparison needs available prices for the same outcome on at least two venues.

How do Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 PM ET) prediction market payouts work?

For example, a 40¢ price implies about a 40% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading. Historical prices alone do not identify the winning outcome.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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