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Live prediction market odds for Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies (6:40 PM ET). Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket and ProphetX.

Browse historical results
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket / ProphetX

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Philadelphia Phillies Wins: Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies (6:40 PM ET)

MLB·Resolved 2026-08-18

This market resolved on 2026-08-18. Philadelphia Phillies was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.

About This Market

Miami Marlins vs.

Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies (6:40 PM ET) — MLB game held on 2026-08-18. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Final Closing Odds

4 platforms
Candidate
Kalshi
Polymarket US
Polymarket
ProphetX
Griffin Conine Under 1.5 Home Runs
——100%—
Philadelphia Phillies spread plus 4.5
———99%
Agustin Ramirez Under 0.5 Home Runs
———99%
Brian Navarreto Under 0.5 Home Runs
———99%
Bryce Harper Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———
Bryson Stott Under 0.5 Home Runs
———99%
Jakob Marsee Under 0.5 Home Runs
———99%
Javier Sanoja Under 0.5 Home Runs
———99%
Justin Crawford Under 0.5 Home Runs
———99%
Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———
Over 2.5 runs scored
99%———
Over 3.5 runs scored
99%———
Trea Turner Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———
Zack Wheeler Over 3.5 Strikeouts
99%———
Zack Wheeler Over 4.5 Strikeouts
99%———
Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 Home Runs
———99%
Esteury Ruiz Under 0.5 Home Runs
———99%
Miami Marlins spread minus 4.5
———99%
Philadelphia PhilliesWINNER
99%98%100%100%
Joe Mack Under 0.5 Home Runs
———95%
Kyle Schwarber Under 0.5 Home Runs
——0%95%
Griffin Conine Under 0.5 Home Runs
——0%92%
Philadelphia Phillies spread plus 1.5
——0%92%
Bryce Harper Under 0.5 Home Runs
——83%99%
Total under 10.5
———91%
J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 Home Runs
——81%99%
Owen Caissie Under 0.5 Home Runs
——81%99%
Philadelphia Phillies spread plus 2.5
——0%90%
Alec Bohm Under 0.5 Home Runs
——80%99%
Xavier Edwards Under 0.5 Home Runs
——80%99%
Miami Marlins spread plus 4.5
———89%
Total over 4.5
99%——88%
Miami Marlins spread plus 2.5
——0%86%
Total under 11.5
———85%
Philadelphia Phillies spread minus 1.5
99%—1%84%
Miami Marlins spread plus 3.5
———83%
Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 Home Runs
——81%99%
Otto Lopez Under 0.5 Home Runs
——81%99%
Trea Turner Under 0.5 Home Runs
——81%99%
Philadelphia Phillies spread plus 3.5
———80%
Total over 5.5
99%——80%
Alec Bohm Under 1.5 Home Runs
——80%—
Bryce Harper Under 1.5 Home Runs
——80%—
Heriberto Hernandez Under 1.5 Home Runs
——80%—
J.T. Realmuto Under 1.5 Home Runs
——80%—
Kyle Schwarber Under 1.5 Home Runs
——80%—
Luis Arraez Under 0.5 Home Runs
——80%99%
Luis Arraez Under 1.5 Home Runs
——80%—
Otto Lopez Under 1.5 Home Runs
——80%—
Trea Turner Under 1.5 Home Runs
——80%—
Xavier Edwards Under 1.5 Home Runs
——80%—
Agustin Ramirez Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———79%
Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———78%
Owen Caissie Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———74%
Brian Navarreto Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———72%
Bryce Harper Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———72%
Otto Lopez Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———71%
Total over 6.5
99%——71%
Trea Turner Under 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———71%
Trea Turner Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———70%
Justin Crawford Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———68%
Xavier Edwards Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———68%
Agustin Ramirez Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———68%
Javier Sanoja Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———67%
Heriberto Hernandez Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———64%
Zack Wheeler Over 7.5 Strikeouts
1%—42%84%
Griffin Conine Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———62%
Zack Wheeler Under 7.5 Strikeouts
——42%82%
Zack Wheeler Over 6.5 Strikeouts
99%—0%62%
Kyle Schwarber Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———61%
J.T. Realmuto Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———60%
Jakob Marsee Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———60%
Miami Marlins spread plus 1.0
———60%
Luis Arraez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———57%
Total over 9.5
99%—0%57%
Total over 7.5
99%—43%70%
Alec Bohm Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———56%
Brandon Marsh Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———56%
Bryson Stott Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———56%
Joe Mack Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———56%
Miami Marlins spread minus 1.0
———56%
Alec Bohm Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———55%
Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———55%
Bryson Stott Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———55%
Luis Arraez Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———54%
Philadelphia Phillies spread plus 1.0
———54%
Esteury Ruiz Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———53%
Total over 8.5
99%—100%53%
Total over 8.0
———53%
Esteury Ruiz Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———52%
Total under 8.0
———52%
J.T. Realmuto Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———51%
Joe Mack Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———51%
Total under 8.5
——100%51%
Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%——50%
Griffin Conine Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———50%
Javier Sanoja Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———48%
Luis Arraez Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———48%
Jakob Marsee Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———47%
Total under 9.5
——0%47%
Philadelphia Phillies spread minus 1.0
———46%
Total under 7.5
——57%34%
Javier Sanoja Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———45%
Justin Crawford Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———44%
Xavier Edwards Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———44%
Heriberto Hernandez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———43%
Trea Turner Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
1%——41%
Agustin Ramirez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———41%
Zack Wheeler Under 6.5 Strikeouts
——0%41%
Otto Lopez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———40%
Kyle Schwarber Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
1%——40%
Brian Navarreto Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———40%
Trea Turner Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
1%——39%
Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
1%——39%
Jakob Marsee Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———36%
Owen Caissie Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———36%
Heriberto Hernandez Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———33%
Total under 6.5
———33%
Agustin Ramirez Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———32%
Total under 5.5
———25%
Miami Marlins spread minus 3.5
1%——24%
Miami Marlins spread plus 1.5
——1%21%
Alec Bohm Over 1.5 Home Runs
——20%—
Griffin Conine Over 1.5 Home Runs
——20%—
Heriberto Hernandez Over 1.5 Home Runs
——20%—
J.T. Realmuto Over 1.5 Home Runs
——20%—
Luis Arraez Over 1.5 Home Runs
——20%—
Trea Turner Over 1.5 Home Runs
1%—20%—
Philadelphia Phillies spread minus 2.5
1%—0%19%
Total over 11.5
1%——19%
Griffin Conine Over 0.5 Home Runs
——0%18%
Philadelphia Phillies spread minus 3.5
11%——22%
Total under 4.5
———16%
Miami Marlins spread minus 2.5
1%—0%15%
Luis Arraez Over 0.5 Home Runs
——20%9%
Xavier Edwards Over 0.5 Home Runs
——20%9%
Philadelphia Phillies spread minus 4.5
———14%
Alec Bohm Over 0.5 Home Runs
——20%8%
Owen Caissie Over 0.5 Home Runs
——19%9%
Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 Home Runs
1%—0%13%
Joe Mack Over 0.5 Home Runs
———13%
J.T. Realmuto Over 0.5 Home Runs
——19%7%
Bryce Harper Over 0.5 Home Runs
1%—17%9%
Heriberto Hernandez Over 0.5 Home Runs
——19%7%
Otto Lopez Over 0.5 Home Runs
——19%7%
Total over 10.5
1%——13%
Miami Marlins spread minus 1.5
1%—0%12%
Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Home Runs
2%—20%—
Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 Home Runs
2%—20%—
Brandon Marsh Over 0.5 Home Runs
———9%
Javier Sanoja Over 0.5 Home Runs
———9%
Esteury Ruiz Over 0.5 Home Runs
———8%
Trea Turner Over 0.5 Home Runs
2%—19%8%
Bryson Stott Over 0.5 Home Runs
———7%
Jakob Marsee Over 0.5 Home Runs
———7%
Agustin Ramirez Over 0.5 Home Runs
———7%
Justin Crawford Over 0.5 Home Runs
———6%
Brian Navarreto Over 0.5 Home Runs
———6%
Miami Marlins
1%2%1%4%
Bryce Harper Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
1%———
Bryce Harper Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
1%———
Bryce Harper Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
1%———
Kyle Schwarber Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
1%———
Kyle Schwarber Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
1%———
Over 12.5 runs scored
1%———
Trea Turner Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
1%———
Trea Turner Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
1%———
Zack Wheeler Over 10.5 Strikeouts
1%———
Zack Wheeler Over 11.5 Strikeouts
1%———
Zack Wheeler Over 8.5 Strikeouts
1%———
Zack Wheeler Over 9.5 Strikeouts
1%———
Otto Lopez Over 1.5 Home Runs
——0%—
Owen Caissie Over 1.5 Home Runs
——0%—
Owen Caissie Under 1.5 Home Runs
——0%—
Xavier Edwards Over 1.5 Home Runs
——0%—
Zack Wheeler Under 5.5 Strikeouts
——0%—
Zack Wheeler Over 5.5 Strikeouts
99%—0%—

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
ProphetXProphetX
ProphetX Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread2.6%
Platforms4
Candidates2
Winner

Philadelphia Phillies

99.1% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies (6:40 PM ET)

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Polymarket US and ProphetX.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Philadelphia wins the Miami vs Philadelphia professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 18, 2026 at 6:40 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The following market refers to the Miami vs Philadelphia professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 18, 2026 at 6:40 PM EDT. If this game is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled game has finished (within two days). If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over two days away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

In the upcoming MLB game between the Miami Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies, scheduled for August 18 at 6:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins win the game. This market will resolve to "Philadelphia Phillies" if the Philadelphia Phillies win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to the winner of the Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies MLB game scheduled for 2026-08-18 at 6:40PM ET. Extra innings are included if played. If the game is delayed, postponed, or suspended and not rescheduled to a date within two weeks of the originally scheduled date, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from MLB.

ProphetXProphetX
Primary Rule

Sports moneyline - resolves based on official game outcome per ProphetX Prediction Rules

Resolution Oracles
ProphetX Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies (6:40 PM ET) prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, ProphetX in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.

What were the last available Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies (6:40 PM ET) odds?

The last available prices are Philadelphia Phillies: 99.0¢ on Kalshi, 99.9¢ on Polymarket, 99.5¢ on ProphetX, 98.0¢ on Polymarket US; Miami Marlins: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 1.1¢ on Polymarket, 3.6¢ on ProphetX, 2.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.

Why do Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies (6:40 PM ET) odds vary across prediction markets?

The largest price difference shown across venues is 2.6 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.

How do Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies (6:40 PM ET) prediction market payouts work?

For example, Philadelphia Phillies at 99.1¢ implies about a 99.1% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading. Historical prices alone do not identify the winning outcome.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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