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Minnesota Twins vs.
Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres (8:40 PM ET) — MLB game held on 2026-08-22. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Live prediction market odds for Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres (8:40 PM ET). Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket and ProphetX.
MLB·Resolved 2026-08-22
This market resolved on 2026-08-22. San Diego Padres was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 98%.
Minnesota Twins vs.
Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres (8:40 PM ET) — MLB game held on 2026-08-22. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate | ![]() | ![]() | ![]() | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Casey Mize Over 0.5 Earned Runs | 99% | — | — | — |
Casey Mize Over 1.5 Earned Runs | 99% | — | — | — |
Casey Mize Over 2.5 Earned Runs | 99% | — | — | — |
Casey Mize Over 3.5 Earned Runs | 99% | — | — | — |
Dean Kremer Over 0.5 Earned Runs | 99% | — | — | — |
Dean Kremer Over 1.5 Earned Runs | 99% | — | — | — |
Dean Kremer Over 1.5 Strikeouts | 99% | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 Hits | 99% | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 RBIs | 99% | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Hits | 99% | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases | 99% | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 Hits | 99% | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 RBIs | 99% | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Hits | 99% | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 RBIs | 99% | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | — |
Over 2.5 runs scored | 99% | — | — | — |
Over 3.5 runs scored | 99% | — | — | — |
Casey Mize Under 4.5 Strikeouts | — | — | 1% | 98% |
Total over 6.5 | 99% | — | — | 98% |
San Diego PadresWINNER | 99% | 99% | 10% | 98% |
Kaelen Culpepper Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | 96% |
Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | 96% |
Luis Campusano Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | 95% |
San Diego Padres spread plus 1.5 | — | — | 96% | 94% |
Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 92% | 96% |
Total over 5.5 | 99% | — | — | 93% |
Brooks Lee Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | 93% |
Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 99% | 93% |
Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | 92% |
Trevor Larnach Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 90% | 91% |
Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 99% | 90% |
Minnesota Twins spread plus 4.5 | — | — | — | 90% |
San Diego Padres spread plus 4.5 | — | — | — | 89% |
Josh Bell Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 90% | 88% |
Ty France Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 88% | 90% |
San Diego Padres spread plus 3.5 | — | — | — | 88% |
Total over 4.5 | 99% | — | — | 88% |
Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 87% | 89% |
Royce Lewis Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 99% | 86% |
Minnesota Twins spread plus 3.5 | — | — | — | 85% |
Manny Machado Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 99% | 85% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 99% | 84% |
Minnesota Twins spread plus 2.5 | — | — | 87% | 80% |
Byron Buxton Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 77% | 80% |
San Diego Padres spread minus 1.5 | 99% | — | 62% | 90% |
Total over 7.5 | 99% | — | 74% | 77% |
Total over 10.5 | 99% | — | — | 74% |
San Diego Padres spread plus 2.5 | — | — | 96% | 47% |
Total over 8.0 | — | — | — | 70% |
Byron Buxton Over 1.5 Hits | 69% | — | — | — |
San Diego Padres spread plus 1.0 | — | — | — | 68% |
Brooks Lee Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 66% |
Gavin Sheets Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 65% |
Victor Caratini Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 65% |
Brooks Lee Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 64% |
Sung-Mun Song Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 63% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 62% |
Luis Campusano Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 61% |
Royce Lewis Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 61% |
Luis Rengifo Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 60% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | 60% |
Byron Buxton Over 0.5 Home Runs | 1% | — | 77% | 42% |
Jake Cronenworth Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 60% |
Ryan Jeffers Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 60% |
Total over 11.5 | 99% | — | — | 59% |
Trevor Larnach Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 59% |
Xander Bogaerts Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 59% |
Kaelen Culpepper Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 58% |
Josh Bell Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 58% |
Kody Clemens Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 58% |
Total over 9.5 | 99% | — | 33% | 81% |
Total under 11.5 | — | — | — | 56% |
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | 55% |
Jackson Merrill Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 55% |
Luke Keaschall Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 55% |
Minnesota Twins spread plus 1.0 | — | — | — | 54% |
Trevor Larnach Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 90% | 18% |
Manny Machado Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 54% |
Byron Buxton Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 53% |
Ty France Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 53% |
Total under 8.5 | — | — | 100% | 52% |
Ty France Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 52% |
Josh Bell Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 90% | 13% |
Total over 8.5 | 99% | — | 100% | 51% |
Dean Kremer Under 4.5 Strikeouts | — | — | 99% | 50% |
Luke Keaschall Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 50% |
Xander Bogaerts Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 49% |
Trevor Larnach Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 49% |
Byron Buxton Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 46% | — | — | 51% |
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 46% | — | — | 51% |
Kaelen Culpepper Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 49% |
Jake Cronenworth Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 48% |
Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 48% |
San Diego Padres spread minus 1.0 | — | — | — | 48% |
Luis Rengifo Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 47% |
Kody Clemens Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 47% |
Luis Campusano Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 47% |
Sung-Mun Song Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 47% |
Josh Bell Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 46% |
Victor Caratini Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 45% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | 44% |
Royce Lewis Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 44% |
Gavin Sheets Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 42% |
Brooks Lee Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 41% |
Total under 8.0 | — | — | — | 38% |
Minnesota Twins spread plus 1.5 | — | — | 58% | 17% |
Minnesota Twins spread minus 1.0 | — | — | — | 36% |
Total under 10.5 | — | — | — | 35% |
Minnesota Twins spread minus 2.5 | 1% | — | 4% | 65% |
Byron Buxton Over 0.5 RBIs | 34% | — | — | — |
Dean Kremer Over 3.5 Strikeouts | 99% | — | 34% | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 Home Runs | 1% | — | 1% | 31% |
Royce Lewis Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 1% | 31% |
Total under 7.5 | — | — | 99% | 31% |
Dean Kremer Over 4.5 Strikeouts | 99% | — | 3% | 58% |
Jackson Merrill Over 2.5 Hits | 30% | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 0.5 Hits | 29% | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 28% | — | — | — |
Total under 9.5 | — | — | 100% | 28% |
San Diego Padres spread minus 2.5 | 1% | — | 20% | 29% |
Byron Buxton Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 24% | — | — | — |
Casey Mize Over 4.5 Strikeouts | 12% | — | 99% | 33% |
Byron Buxton Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 22% | — | — | — |
San Diego Padres spread minus 3.5 | 1% | — | — | 21% |
Total under 4.5 | — | — | — | 20% |
Ryan Jeffers Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 13% | 26% |
Casey Mize Over 2.5 Strikeouts | 1% | — | 19% | — |
Manny Machado Over 0.5 RBIs | 19% | — | — | — |
Brooks Lee Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | 17% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 Stolen Bases | 17% | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 0.5 Home Runs | 1% | — | 3% | 30% |
Minnesota Twins spread minus 3.5 | 1% | — | — | 16% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 4.5 Total Bases | 16% | — | — | — |
San Diego Padres spread minus 4.5 | — | — | — | 16% |
Minnesota Twins spread minus 4.5 | — | — | — | 15% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 15% | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 Home Runs | 99% | — | 1% | 15% |
Ty France Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 12% | 17% |
Byron Buxton Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 14% | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 2.5 Hits | 14% | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 1.5 RBIs | 14% | — | — | — |
Total under 5.5 | — | — | — | 13% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 RBIs | 13% | — | — | — |
Luis Campusano Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | 12% |
Casey Mize Over 5.5 Strikeouts | 12% | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 12% | — | — | — |
Total under 6.5 | — | — | — | 12% |
Xander Bogaerts Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | 10% |
Luke Keaschall Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | 10% |
Kaelen Culpepper Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | 9% |
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 Stolen Bases | 9% | — | — | — |
Jake Cronenworth Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 1% | 8% |
Byron Buxton Over 0.5 Hits | 8% | — | — | — |
Casey Mize Over 6.5 Strikeouts | 8% | — | — | — |
Luis Rengifo Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 8% | 7% |
Minnesota Twins spread minus 1.5 | 1% | — | 4% | 10% |
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Hits | 7% | — | — | — |
Byron Buxton Over 2.5 Total Bases | 6% | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 2.5 Total Bases | 6% | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 3.5 Total Bases | 6% | — | — | — |
Casey Mize Over 3.5 Strikeouts | 3% | — | 99% | — |
Casey Mize Over 7.5 Strikeouts | 3% | — | — | — |
Casey Mize Over 8.5 Strikeouts | 3% | — | — | — |
Dean Kremer Over 6.5 Strikeouts | 3% | — | — | — |
Dean Kremer Over 7.5 Strikeouts | 3% | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 3.5 Hits | 3% | — | — | — |
Minnesota Twins | 1% | 2% | 91% | 3% |
Byron Buxton Over 1.5 Home Runs | 4% | — | 1% | — |
Byron Buxton Over 1.5 Total Bases | 2% | — | — | — |
Byron Buxton Over 2.5 Hits | 2% | — | — | — |
Byron Buxton Over 3.5 Total Bases | 2% | — | — | — |
Byron Buxton Over 4.5 Total Bases | 2% | — | — | — |
Byron Buxton Over 5.5 Total Bases | 2% | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Home Runs | 1% | — | 2% | — |
Manny Machado Over 2.5 Hits | 2% | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Home Runs | 1% | — | 2% | — |
Byron Buxton Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 1% | — | — | — |
Byron Buxton Over 0.5 Stolen Bases | 1% | — | — | — |
Casey Mize Over 17.5 Pitcher Outs | 1% | — | — | — |
Dean Kremer Over 16.5 Pitcher Outs | 1% | — | — | — |
Dean Kremer Over 5.5 Strikeouts | 1% | — | — | — |
Over 12.5 runs scored | 1% | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Home Runs | 1% | — | 1% | — |
Byron Buxton Over 1.5 RBIs | 0% | — | — | — |
Byron Buxton Over 2.5 RBIs | 0% | — | — | — |
Casey Mize Over 4.5 Earned Runs | 0% | — | — | — |
Dean Kremer Over 2.5 Earned Runs | 0% | — | — | — |
Dean Kremer Over 3.5 Earned Runs | 0% | — | — | — |
Dean Kremer Over 4.5 Earned Runs | 0% | — | — | — |
Dean Kremer Over 5.5 Earned Runs | 0% | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 0.5 Stolen Bases | 0% | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 0% | — | — | — |
Dean Kremer Over 2.5 Strikeouts | 99% | — | 1% | — |
San Diego Padres
76.1% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Polymarket US and ProphetX.
KalshiIf Minnesota wins the Minnesota vs San Diego professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 22, 2026 at 8:40 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Minnesota vs San Diego professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 22, 2026 at 8:40 PM EDT. If this game is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled game has finished (within two days). If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over two days away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
PolymarketIn the upcoming MLB game between the Minnesota Twins and San Diego Padres, scheduled for August 22 at 8:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Minnesota Twins" if the Minnesota Twins win the game. This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Polymarket USThis market will settle to the winner of the Minnesota Twins vs San Diego Padres MLB game scheduled for 2026-08-22 at 8:40PM ET. Extra innings are included if played. If the game is delayed, postponed, or suspended and not rescheduled to a date within two weeks of the originally scheduled date, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from MLB.
Sports moneyline - resolves based on official game outcome per ProphetX Prediction Rules
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, ProphetX in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
The last available prices are San Diego Padres: 99.0¢ on Kalshi, 9.5¢ on Polymarket, 97.5¢ on ProphetX, 98.5¢ on Polymarket US; Minnesota Twins: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 91.0¢ on Polymarket, 2.8¢ on ProphetX, 1.5¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
The largest price difference shown across venues is 90.0 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.
For example, San Diego Padres at 76.1¢ implies about a 76.1% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading. Historical prices alone do not identify the winning outcome.