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Live prediction market odds for Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres (4:10 PM ET). Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket and ProphetX.

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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket / ProphetX

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San Diego Padres Wins: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres (4:10 PM ET)

MLB·Resolved 2026-08-26

This market resolved on 2026-08-26. San Diego Padres was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.

About This Market

Pittsburgh Pirates vs.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres (4:10 PM ET) — MLB game held on 2026-08-26. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Final Closing Odds

4 platforms
Candidate
Kalshi
Polymarket US
Polymarket
ProphetX
Bubba Chandler Over 2.5 Strikeouts
99%—100%—
Randy Vasquez Over 1.5 Strikeouts
99%—100%—
San Diego PadresWINNER
99%100%100%99%
Bubba Chandler Over 0.5 Earned Runs
99%———
Bubba Chandler Over 1.5 Strikeouts
99%———
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 Hits
99%———
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Hits
99%———
Jackson Merrill Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———
Jackson Merrill Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———
Jake Cronenworth Under 1.5 Home Runs
——99%—
Jake Mangum Under 1.5 Home Runs
——99%—
Manny Machado Over 0.5 Hits
99%———
Manny Machado Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———
Manny Machado Under 1.5 Home Runs
——99%—
Over 2.5 runs scored
99%———
Spencer Horwitz Under 1.5 Home Runs
——99%—
Total under 12.5
———99%
San Diego Padres spread plus 3.5
———99%
Bryan Reynolds Under 1.5 Home Runs
——99%—
Ty France Under 1.5 Home Runs
——99%—
Brandon Lowe Under 1.5 Home Runs
——98%—
Jackson Merrill Under 1.5 Home Runs
——98%—
Esmerlyn Valdez Under 1.5 Home Runs
——97%—
Jacob Gonzalez Under 0.5 Home Runs
——1%97%
Oneil Cruz Under 1.5 Home Runs
——97%—
Jake Mangum Under 0.5 Home Runs
——95%99%
Total under 8.5
——97%95%
Total under 7.5
——95%96%
Nick Gonzales Under 0.5 Home Runs
——92%99%
Total under 9.5
——98%93%
Total under 10.5
———95%
Freddy Fermin Under 0.5 Home Runs
——92%98%
Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 Home Runs
——91%97%
Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 Home Runs
——93%92%
Total under 6.5
———92%
San Diego Padres spread plus 1.5
——87%98%
Total under 9.0
———92%
Total under 11.5
———91%
Total under 7.0
———91%
Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 Home Runs
——82%99%
Gavin Sheets Under 0.5 Home Runs
——86%94%
Pittsburgh Pirates spread plus 4.5
———90%
San Diego Padres spread plus 4.5
———90%
San Diego Padres spread minus 1.5
99%—99%90%
Spencer Horwitz Under 0.5 Home Runs
——89%90%
Rafael Flores Jr. Under 0.5 Home Runs
——87%91%
Total under 5.5
———89%
Ty France Under 0.5 Home Runs
——88%89%
Total under 8.0
———88%
Bryan Reynolds Under 0.5 Home Runs
——87%99%
San Diego Padres spread minus 2.5
99%—99%86%
Manny Machado Under 0.5 Home Runs
——86%85%
Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 Home Runs
——84%85%
Esmerlyn Valdez Under 0.5 Home Runs
——82%85%
Rafael Flores Jr. Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———82%
Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 Home Runs
——81%83%
Oneil Cruz Under 0.5 Home Runs
——82%82%
Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 Home Runs
——81%82%
Manny Machado Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———81%
San Diego Padres spread plus 2.5
——75%87%
Freddy Fermin Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———80%
Jacob Gonzalez Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———80%
Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 1.5 Home Runs
——80%—
Pittsburgh Pirates spread plus 3.5
———76%
Total under 4.5
———73%
Jackson Merrill Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
68%———
Bryan Reynolds Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———67%
Xander Bogaerts Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———66%
Luis Rengifo Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———65%
Esmerlyn Valdez Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———64%
Jake Mangum Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———64%
San Diego Padres spread minus 1.0
———64%
San Diego Padres spread plus 1.0
———64%
Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———63%
Gavin Sheets Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———61%
Rafael Flores Jr. Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———61%
Bubba Chandler Over 3.5 Strikeouts
1%—62%57%
Nick Gonzales Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———58%
Bubba Chandler Under 4.5 Strikeouts
——58%57%
Jackson Merrill Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———57%
Jake Cronenworth Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———57%
Oneil Cruz Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———57%
Spencer Horwitz Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———56%
Randy Vasquez Under 3.5 Strikeouts
——48%63%
Brandon Lowe Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———54%
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%——54%
Ty France Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———54%
Esmerlyn Valdez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
46%——58%
Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%——51%
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
54%——49%
Ty France Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
50%——52%
Spencer Horwitz Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%——50%
Oneil Cruz Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
48%——52%
Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
48%——50%
Jake Cronenworth Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%——49%
Randy Vasquez Over 3.5 Strikeouts
1%—52%46%
Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
48%——48%
Jake Mangum Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
43%——52%
Gavin Sheets Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
44%——50%
Total over 5.5
1%——47%
Luis Rengifo Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%——47%
Bubba Chandler Over 2.5 Earned Runs
46%———
Bubba Chandler Under 3.5 Strikeouts
——38%54%
Jacob Gonzalez Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
1%——46%
Randy Vasquez Over 2.5 Earned Runs
45%———
Xander Bogaerts Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
42%——48%
Rafael Flores Jr. Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
0%——45%
Bubba Chandler Over 4.5 Strikeouts
1%—42%46%
Rafael Flores Jr. Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
1%——43%
Pittsburgh Pirates spread minus 1.0
———42%
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
42%———
Pittsburgh Pirates spread plus 1.0
———42%
Gavin Sheets Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
1%——40%
Freddy Fermin Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%——35%
Total over 4.5
1%——32%
Manny Machado Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
32%———
Oneil Cruz Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
32%———
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%——31%
San Diego Padres spread minus 3.5
1%——29%
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
26%———
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 Home Runs
1%——24%
Pittsburgh Pirates spread minus 2.5
1%—25%17%
Brandon Lowe Over 0.5 Home Runs
1%—19%23%
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Hits
21%———
Esmerlyn Valdez Over 0.5 Home Runs
1%—18%23%
Manny Machado Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
20%———
Oneil Cruz Over 1.5 Hits
20%———
Oneil Cruz Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
20%———
Total over 8.0
———20%
Manny Machado Over 0.5 Home Runs
34%—14%19%
Pittsburgh Pirates spread plus 2.5
——1%19%
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 Home Runs
1%—16%20%
Oneil Cruz Over 0.5 Home Runs
2%—18%23%
Total over 11.5
1%——17%
Total over 7.0
———17%
Total over 9.0
———15%
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
15%———
Pittsburgh Pirates spread plus 1.5
——1%15%
Pittsburgh Pirates spread minus 4.5
———15%
Total over 3.5
1%——14%
San Diego Padres spread minus 4.5
———14%
Total over 6.5
1%——14%
Pittsburgh Pirates spread minus 1.5
1%—13%13%
Rafael Flores Jr. Over 0.5 Home Runs
3%—13%14%
Ty France Over 0.5 Home Runs
5%—12%16%
Manny Machado Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
11%———
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Home Runs
10%———
Oneil Cruz Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
10%———
Bryan Reynolds Over 0.5 Home Runs
11%——9%
Total over 10.5
1%——9%
Total over 8.5
1%—3%16%
Gavin Sheets Over 0.5 Home Runs
2%——16%
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Hits
9%———
Pittsburgh Pirates spread minus 3.5
1%——9%
Total over 12.5
1%——9%
Spencer Horwitz Over 0.5 Home Runs
4%——13%
Nick Gonzales Over 0.5 Home Runs
2%—8%8%
Jacob Gonzalez Over 0.5 Home Runs
3%—99%12%
Pittsburgh Pirates
1%1%0%7%
Xander Bogaerts Over 0.5 Home Runs
4%——10%
Jackson Merrill Over 2.5 Hits
7%———
Total over 7.5
1%—5%9%
Total over 9.5
1%—2%12%
Jake Cronenworth Over 0.5 Home Runs
2%——11%
Freddy Fermin Over 0.5 Home Runs
3%——10%
Luis Rengifo Over 0.5 Home Runs
3%——7%
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 2.5 Hits
4%———
Jake Mangum Over 0.5 Home Runs
2%——6%
Manny Machado Over 2.5 Hits
4%———
Oneil Cruz Over 2.5 Hits
3%———
Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 Home Runs
2%———
Esmerlyn Valdez Over 1.5 Home Runs
2%———
Oneil Cruz Over 1.5 Home Runs
2%———
Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 Home Runs
1%———
Bubba Chandler Over 5.5 Strikeouts
1%———
Bubba Chandler Over 6.5 Strikeouts
1%———
Bubba Chandler Over 7.5 Strikeouts
1%———
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 Hits
1%———
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
1%———
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Home Runs
1%———
Oneil Cruz Over 0.5 Hits
1%———
Oneil Cruz Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
1%———
Randy Vasquez Over 2.5 Strikeouts
1%———
Randy Vasquez Under 2.5 Strikeouts
——1%—
Spencer Horwitz Over 1.5 Home Runs
1%———
Bubba Chandler Under 2.5 Strikeouts
——0%—
Randy Vasquez Under 1.5 Strikeouts
——0%—
Bubba Chandler Over 1.5 Earned Runs
0%———
Bubba Chandler Over 3.5 Earned Runs
0%———
Bubba Chandler Over 4.5 Earned Runs
0%———
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 3.5 Hits
0%———
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Home Runs
0%———
Jake Cronenworth Over 1.5 Home Runs
0%———
Randy Vasquez Over 0.5 Earned Runs
0%———
Randy Vasquez Over 1.5 Earned Runs
0%———
Randy Vasquez Over 3.5 Earned Runs
0%———
Randy Vasquez Over 4.5 Earned Runs
0%———
Ty France Over 1.5 Home Runs
0%———
Jake Mangum Over 1.5 Home Runs
————

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
ProphetXProphetX
ProphetX Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread7.2%
Platforms4
Candidates2
Winner

San Diego Padres

99.4% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres (4:10 PM ET)

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Polymarket US and ProphetX.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Pittsburgh wins the Pittsburgh vs San Diego professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 26, 2026 at 4:10 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The following market refers to the Pittsburgh vs San Diego professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 26, 2026 at 4:10 PM EDT. If this game is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled game has finished (within two days). If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over two days away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

In the upcoming MLB game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and San Diego Padres, scheduled for August 26 at 4:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates win the game. This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to the winner of the Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres MLB game scheduled for 2026-08-26 at 4:10PM ET. Extra innings are included if played. If the game is delayed, postponed, or suspended and not rescheduled to a date within two weeks of the originally scheduled date, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from MLB.

ProphetXProphetX
Primary Rule

Sports moneyline - resolves based on official game outcome per ProphetX Prediction Rules

Resolution Oracles
ProphetX Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres (4:10 PM ET) prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, ProphetX in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.

What were the last available Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres (4:10 PM ET) odds?

The last available prices are San Diego Padres: 99.0¢ on Kalshi, 99.9¢ on Polymarket, 99.0¢ on ProphetX, 99.5¢ on Polymarket US; Pittsburgh Pirates: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 0.1¢ on Polymarket, 7.3¢ on ProphetX, 0.5¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.

Why do Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres (4:10 PM ET) odds vary across prediction markets?

The largest price difference shown across venues is 7.2 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.

How do Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres (4:10 PM ET) prediction market payouts work?

For example, San Diego Padres at 99.4¢ implies about a 99.4% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading. Historical prices alone do not identify the winning outcome.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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