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Pittsburgh Pirates vs.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres (9:40 PM ET) — MLB game held on 2026-08-24. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Live prediction market odds for Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres (9:40 PM ET). Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket and ProphetX.
MLB·Resolved 2026-08-24
This market resolved on 2026-08-24. Pittsburgh Pirates was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres (9:40 PM ET) — MLB game held on 2026-08-24. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate | ![]() | ![]() | ![]() | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Braxton Ashcraft Over 0.5 Earned Runs | 99% | — | — | — |
Braxton Ashcraft Over 17.5 Pitcher Outs | 99% | — | — | — |
Freddy Fermin Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | 99% |
Jared Triolo Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | 99% |
Nick Yorke Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | 99% |
Over 1.5 runs scored | 99% | — | — | — |
Over 2.5 runs scored | 99% | — | — | — |
Robbie Ray Over 0.5 Earned Runs | 99% | — | — | — |
Robbie Ray Over 1.5 Earned Runs | 99% | — | — | — |
Robbie Ray Over 2.5 Strikeouts | 99% | — | — | — |
Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | 99% |
Total under 9.5 | — | — | — | 99% |
Gavin Sheets Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | 99% |
Rafael Flores Jr. Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | 99% |
Ty France Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | 99% |
Nick Gonzales Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 93% | 99% |
Total under 10.5 | — | — | — | 96% |
Pittsburgh PiratesWINNER | 99% | 99% | 100% | 93% |
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 RBIs | 93% | — | — | — |
Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 93% | 99% |
Manny Machado Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 86% | 99% |
Pittsburgh Pirates spread plus 1.5 | — | — | 100% | 92% |
Total under 11.5 | — | — | — | 92% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 85% | 99% |
Pittsburgh Pirates spread plus 2.5 | — | — | 100% | 91% |
Total under 8.5 | — | — | 100% | 91% |
Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 80% | 99% |
Jake Mangum Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 80% | 99% |
Total under 5.5 | — | — | — | 89% |
Total under 7.5 | — | — | 100% | 89% |
Pittsburgh Pirates spread plus 3.5 | — | — | — | 88% |
Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 88% | 99% |
San Diego Padres spread plus 2.5 | — | — | 100% | 88% |
Braxton Ashcraft Under 5.5 Strikeouts | — | — | 81% | 94% |
Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 80% | 95% |
San Diego Padres spread plus 3.5 | — | — | — | 87% |
Bryan Reynolds Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 86% | 99% |
San Diego Padres spread plus 1.5 | — | — | 100% | 86% |
Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 85% |
Oneil Cruz Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 84% | 99% |
Jake Cronenworth Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 82% |
Robbie Ray Over 3.5 Strikeouts | 99% | — | 81% | — |
Robbie Ray Over 4.5 Strikeouts | 99% | — | 81% | — |
Robbie Ray Under 5.5 Strikeouts | — | — | 81% | 78% |
Brandon Lowe Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 77% |
Bryan Reynolds Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 74% |
Manny Machado Over 0.5 Hits | 72% | — | — | — |
Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 70% |
Gavin Sheets Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 67% |
Nick Gonzales Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 67% |
Pittsburgh Pirates spread plus 1.0 | — | — | — | 65% |
Luis Rengifo Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 65% |
Manny Machado Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 65% |
Nick Yorke Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 65% |
Rafael Flores Jr. Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 65% |
Freddy Fermin Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 64% |
Oneil Cruz Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 64% |
Ty France Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 64% |
Esmerlyn Valdez Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 63% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 61% |
Jackson Merrill Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 60% |
Jared Triolo Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 60% |
Total over 6.5 | 1% | — | 0% | 60% |
Braxton Ashcraft Under 4.5 Strikeouts | — | — | 81% | 39% |
Braxton Ashcraft Over 1.5 Earned Runs | 59% | — | — | — |
Henry Davis Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 58% |
Total under 4.5 | — | — | — | 58% |
Esmerlyn Valdez Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 19% | 96% |
Gavin Sheets Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 57% |
Jake Mangum Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 57% |
Total over 3.5 | 99% | — | — | 55% |
Total under 3.5 | — | — | — | 54% |
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 57% | — | — | 50% |
San Diego Padres spread plus 1.0 | — | — | — | 54% |
Xander Bogaerts Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 53% |
Henry Davis Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 51% |
Pittsburgh Pirates spread minus 1.0 | — | — | — | 51% |
Total over 4.5 | 99% | — | — | 51% |
Jared Triolo Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 50% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 1% | — | — | 50% |
Esmerlyn Valdez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 49% |
Total under 6.5 | — | — | 100% | 49% |
Esmerlyn Valdez Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 81% | 15% |
Freddy Fermin Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 48% |
Nick Yorke Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 48% |
Ty France Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 47% |
Rafael Flores Jr. Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 47% |
Xander Bogaerts Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 47% |
Jake Mangum Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 45% |
Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 45% |
Braxton Ashcraft Over 4.5 Strikeouts | 1% | — | 19% | 67% |
Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 43% |
Luis Rengifo Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 42% |
San Diego Padres spread minus 1.0 | — | — | — | 40% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 RBIs | 39% | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 31% | — | — | 47% |
Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 36% |
Jackson Merrill Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 36% | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Hits | 34% | — | — | — |
Jake Cronenworth Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 33% |
Oneil Cruz Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 12% | — | — | 52% |
Manny Machado Over 0.5 RBIs | 31% | — | — | — |
Oneil Cruz Over 0.5 RBIs | 31% | — | — | — |
Oneil Cruz Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 28% | — | — | — |
Brandon Lowe Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 26% |
Manny Machado Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 24% | — | — | — |
San Diego Padres spread minus 3.5 | 1% | — | — | 23% |
Pittsburgh Pirates spread minus 3.5 | 1% | — | — | 22% |
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 Hits | 22% | — | — | — |
Total over 7.5 | 1% | — | 0% | 21% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 Hits | 21% | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 21% | — | — | — |
Total over 8.5 | 1% | — | 0% | 20% |
Pittsburgh Pirates spread minus 2.5 | 1% | — | 0% | 19% |
Braxton Ashcraft Over 2.5 Strikeouts | 1% | — | 19% | — |
Braxton Ashcraft Over 3.5 Strikeouts | 1% | — | 19% | — |
Braxton Ashcraft Over 5.5 Strikeouts | 5% | — | 19% | 53% |
Robbie Ray Over 5.5 Strikeouts | 1% | — | 19% | 99% |
Total over 5.5 | 1% | — | — | 19% |
Jackson Merrill Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 18% | — | — | — |
Pittsburgh Pirates spread minus 1.5 | 1% | — | 0% | 17% |
San Diego Padres spread minus 2.5 | 1% | — | 0% | 17% |
Oneil Cruz Over 1.5 Hits | 17% | — | — | — |
Oneil Cruz Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 16% | — | — | — |
Total over 11.5 | 1% | — | — | 15% |
San Diego Padres spread minus 1.5 | 1% | — | 0% | 15% |
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Home Runs | 9% | — | 20% | — |
Total over 10.5 | 1% | — | — | 14% |
Luis Rengifo Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 20% | 8% |
Jake Mangum Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 20% | 7% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 13% | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 3.5 Total Bases | 13% | — | — | — |
Gavin Sheets Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | 12% |
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 RBIs | 12% | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Hits | 12% | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 1.5 RBIs | 12% | — | — | — |
San Diego Padres | 1% | 1% | 0% | 11% |
Rafael Flores Jr. Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | 11% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 RBIs | 11% | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 3.5 Total Bases | 11% | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 Home Runs | 1% | — | 15% | 6% |
Total over 9.5 | 1% | — | — | 10% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Hits | 10% | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 4.5 Total Bases | 10% | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 10% | — | — | — |
Jared Triolo Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | 10% |
Brandon Lowe Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 14% | 5% |
Manny Machado Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 9% | — | — | — |
Oneil Cruz Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 9% | — | — | — |
Bryan Reynolds Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 10% | 8% |
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 Home Runs | 2% | — | 20% | 8% |
Manny Machado Over 0.5 Home Runs | 2% | — | 14% | 8% |
Jackson Merrill Over 4.5 Total Bases | 8% | — | — | — |
Nick Gonzales Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 8% | 7% |
Ty France Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | 7% |
Xander Bogaerts Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | 7% |
Jake Cronenworth Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 8% | 6% |
Oneil Cruz Over 0.5 Home Runs | 2% | — | 16% | 7% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 2.5 Total Bases | 6% | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 3.5 Total Bases | 6% | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 2.5 Total Bases | 6% | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 2.5 Total Bases | 6% | — | — | — |
Oneil Cruz Over 2.5 Total Bases | 6% | — | — | — |
Nick Yorke Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | 6% |
Braxton Ashcraft Over 8.5 Strikeouts | 5% | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 2.5 Hits | 5% | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 2.5 Hits | 5% | — | — | — |
Robbie Ray Over 8.5 Strikeouts | 5% | — | — | — |
Robbie Ray Over 9.5 Strikeouts | 5% | — | — | — |
Freddy Fermin Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | 5% |
Braxton Ashcraft Over 9.5 Strikeouts | 4% | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 2.5 Hits | 4% | — | — | — |
Braxton Ashcraft Over 7.5 Strikeouts | 3% | — | — | — |
Oneil Cruz Over 2.5 Hits | 3% | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 3.5 Hits | 2% | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Total Bases | 2% | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Total Bases | 2% | — | — | — |
Oneil Cruz Over 1.5 Total Bases | 2% | — | — | — |
Oneil Cruz Over 3.5 Total Bases | 2% | — | — | — |
Oneil Cruz Over 4.5 Total Bases | 2% | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Home Runs | 2% | — | 1% | — |
Oneil Cruz Over 1.5 Home Runs | 1% | — | 1% | — |
Braxton Ashcraft Over 6.5 Strikeouts | 1% | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 1% | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases | 1% | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 1% | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 1% | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 1% | — | — | — |
Oneil Cruz Over 0.5 Hits | 1% | — | — | — |
Oneil Cruz Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 1% | — | — | — |
Robbie Ray Over 16.5 Pitcher Outs | 1% | — | — | — |
Robbie Ray Over 6.5 Strikeouts | 1% | — | — | — |
Robbie Ray Over 7.5 Strikeouts | 1% | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Home Runs | 1% | — | 1% | — |
Braxton Ashcraft Over 2.5 Earned Runs | 0% | — | — | — |
Braxton Ashcraft Over 3.5 Earned Runs | 0% | — | — | — |
Braxton Ashcraft Over 4.5 Earned Runs | 0% | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 0% | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 4.5 Total Bases | 0% | — | — | — |
Oneil Cruz Over 1.5 RBIs | 0% | — | — | — |
Pittsburgh Pirates
97.8% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Polymarket US and ProphetX.
KalshiIf San Diego wins the Pittsburgh vs San Diego professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 24, 2026 at 9:40 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Pittsburgh vs San Diego professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 24, 2026 at 9:40 PM EDT. If this game is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled game has finished (within two days). If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over two days away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
PolymarketIn the upcoming MLB game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and San Diego Padres, scheduled for August 24 at 9:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates win the game. This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Polymarket USThis market will settle to the winner of the Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres MLB game scheduled for 2026-08-24 at 9:40PM ET. Extra innings are included if played. If the game is delayed, postponed, or suspended and not rescheduled to a date within two weeks of the originally scheduled date, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from MLB.
Sports moneyline - resolves based on official game outcome per ProphetX Prediction Rules
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, ProphetX in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
The last available prices are Pittsburgh Pirates: 99.0¢ on Kalshi, 99.9¢ on Polymarket, 93.2¢ on ProphetX, 99.0¢ on Polymarket US; San Diego Padres: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 0.1¢ on Polymarket, 11.3¢ on ProphetX, 1.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
The largest price difference shown across venues is 11.2 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.
For example, Pittsburgh Pirates at 97.8¢ implies about a 97.8% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading. Historical prices alone do not identify the winning outcome.