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Pittsburgh Pirates vs.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres (9:40 PM ET) — MLB game held on 2026-08-25. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Live prediction market odds for Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres (9:40 PM ET). Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket and ProphetX.
MLB·Resolved 2026-08-25
This market resolved on 2026-08-25. Pittsburgh Pirates was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 87%.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres (9:40 PM ET) — MLB game held on 2026-08-25. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate | ![]() | ![]() | ![]() | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 Hits | 99% | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | — |
Henry Davis Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | 99% |
Jacob Gonzalez Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | 99% |
Luis Campusano Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | 99% |
Michael King Over 17.5 Pitcher Outs | 99% | — | — | — |
Michael King Over 2.5 Strikeouts | 99% | — | — | — |
Michael King Over 6.5 Strikeouts | 99% | — | — | — |
Nick Gonzales Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | 99% |
Oneil Cruz Over 0.5 Hits | 99% | — | — | — |
Oneil Cruz Over 0.5 RBIs | 99% | — | — | — |
Oneil Cruz Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | — |
Oneil Cruz Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 99% | 99% |
Paul Skenes Over 15.5 Pitcher Outs | 99% | — | — | — |
Paul Skenes Over 3.5 Strikeouts | 99% | — | — | — |
Total under 10.5 | — | — | — | 99% |
Total under 11.5 | — | — | — | 99% |
Total under 9.5 | — | — | — | 99% |
Ty France Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 99% | 99% |
Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | 99% |
Pittsburgh Pirates spread plus 3.5 | — | — | — | 99% |
San Diego Padres spread plus 3.5 | — | — | — | 99% |
Jake Mangum Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 97% | 99% |
Oneil Cruz Over 3.5 Total Bases | 97% | — | — | — |
Spencer Horwitz Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 96% | 99% |
Gavin Sheets Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | 96% |
Total under 5.5 | — | — | — | 96% |
Total under 8.5 | — | — | 92% | 96% |
Esmerlyn Valdez Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 96% | 91% |
Manny Machado Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 88% | 99% |
Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 93% | 99% |
Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 86% | 99% |
Total under 8.0 | — | — | — | 92% |
Pittsburgh Pirates spread plus 4.5 | — | — | — | 92% |
San Diego Padres spread plus 2.5 | — | — | 86% | 98% |
San Diego Padres spread plus 4.5 | — | — | — | 92% |
Total under 7.5 | — | — | 90% | 99% |
Total under 7.0 | — | — | — | 90% |
Total under 4.5 | — | — | — | 89% |
Bryan Reynolds Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 88% | 99% |
Pittsburgh Pirates spread plus 2.5 | — | — | 76% | 99% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases | 85% | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 85% | 99% |
Total under 6.5 | — | — | 84% | 99% |
Pittsburgh PiratesWINNER | 99% | 83% | 33% | 92% |
Pittsburgh Pirates spread plus 1.5 | — | — | 68% | 92% |
Spencer Horwitz Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 79% |
Henry Davis Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 78% |
Total under 3.5 | — | — | — | 78% |
Jacob Gonzalez Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 76% |
Nick Gonzales Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 76% |
Paul Skenes Under 6.5 Strikeouts | — | — | 61% | 91% |
Luis Campusano Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 74% |
San Diego Padres spread plus 1.5 | — | — | 74% | 99% |
Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 69% |
Michael King Under 5.5 Strikeouts | — | — | 99% | 68% |
Gavin Sheets Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 67% |
Jake Cronenworth Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 66% |
Esmerlyn Valdez Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 66% |
Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 65% |
Xander Bogaerts Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 65% |
Jake Mangum Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 64% |
Oneil Cruz Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 63% |
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 Hits | 63% | — | — | — |
Paul Skenes Over 1.5 Earned Runs | 63% | — | — | — |
Brandon Lowe Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 61% |
Jackson Merrill Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 61% |
Paul Skenes Over 6.5 Strikeouts | 1% | — | 99% | 61% |
San Diego Padres spread plus 1.0 | — | — | — | 61% |
Michael King Over 9.5 Strikeouts | 60% | — | — | — |
Pittsburgh Pirates spread plus 1.0 | — | — | — | 58% |
Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 57% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 57% |
Gavin Sheets Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 57% |
Manny Machado Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 57% |
Ty France Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 57% |
Paul Skenes Over 5.5 Strikeouts | 1% | — | 56% | 58% |
Ty France Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 54% |
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 48% | — | — | 50% |
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 43% | — | — | 54% |
Jake Mangum Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 49% |
Bryan Reynolds Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 48% |
San Diego Padres spread minus 1.0 | — | — | — | 47% |
Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 47% |
Oneil Cruz Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | 46% |
Bryan Reynolds Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 88% | 4% |
Jake Cronenworth Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 46% |
Esmerlyn Valdez Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 45% |
Esmerlyn Valdez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 45% |
Pittsburgh Pirates spread minus 1.0 | — | — | — | 44% |
Luis Campusano Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 43% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 21% | — | — | 64% |
Luis Rengifo Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 43% |
Paul Skenes Over 4.5 Strikeouts | 1% | — | 38% | — |
Luis Campusano Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 38% |
Luis Rengifo Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 68% | 5% |
Jacob Gonzalez Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 35% |
Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 35% |
Jackson Merrill Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 35% | — | — | — |
Henry Davis Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 33% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 RBIs | 33% | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 33% | — | — | — |
Oneil Cruz Over 1.5 Total Bases | 33% | — | — | — |
Spencer Horwitz Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 32% |
Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 32% | 99% |
Manny Machado Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 28% | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Home Runs | 25% | — | 1% | — |
San Diego Padres spread minus 1.5 | 1% | — | 32% | 16% |
Total over 3.5 | 1% | — | — | 23% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 2.5 Hits | 23% | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 23% | — | — | — |
Oneil Cruz Over 2.5 Total Bases | 23% | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 0.5 Hits | 22% | — | — | — |
San Diego Padres spread minus 4.5 | — | — | — | 19% |
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Hits | 19% | — | — | — |
Total over 1.5 | 1% | — | — | 18% |
Total over 4.5 | 1% | — | — | 18% |
Total over 7.0 | — | — | — | 17% |
San Diego Padres spread minus 2.5 | 1% | — | 24% | 10% |
Oneil Cruz Over 1.5 Hits | 17% | — | — | — |
San Diego Padres | 1% | 17% | 68% | 9% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 RBIs | 16% | — | — | — |
Total over 8.0 | — | — | — | 14% |
Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 14% | 99% |
Manny Machado Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 14% | — | — | — |
Total over 6.5 | 1% | — | 16% | 10% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 13% | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 RBIs | 13% | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Hits | 13% | — | — | — |
Oneil Cruz Over 1.5 RBIs | 13% | — | — | — |
Paul Skenes Over 8.5 Strikeouts | 13% | — | — | — |
Pittsburgh Pirates spread minus 4.5 | — | — | — | 12% |
Pittsburgh Pirates spread minus 2.5 | 1% | — | 11% | 13% |
Total over 8.5 | 1% | — | 8% | 15% |
Pittsburgh Pirates spread minus 1.5 | 1% | — | 14% | 9% |
San Diego Padres spread minus 3.5 | 1% | — | — | 11% |
Gavin Sheets Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | 11% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 4.5 Total Bases | 11% | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 0.5 Home Runs | 5% | — | 12% | 11% |
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 Home Runs | 24% | — | 8% | 11% |
Total over 7.5 | 1% | — | 10% | 10% |
Brandon Lowe Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 14% | 6% |
Esmerlyn Valdez Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 4% | 16% |
Oneil Cruz Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 9% | — | — | — |
Total over 5.5 | 1% | — | — | 9% |
Total over 9.5 | 1% | — | — | 9% |
Xander Bogaerts Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | 9% |
Jackson Merrill Over 3.5 Total Bases | 8% | — | — | — |
Pittsburgh Pirates spread minus 3.5 | 1% | — | — | 8% |
Total over 10.5 | 1% | — | — | 8% |
Total over 11.5 | 1% | — | — | 8% |
Manny Machado Over 4.5 Total Bases | 7% | — | — | — |
Spencer Horwitz Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 4% | 8% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 Home Runs | 2% | — | 15% | 6% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 2.5 Total Bases | 6% | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 3.5 Total Bases | 6% | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 2.5 Total Bases | 6% | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 2.5 Total Bases | 6% | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 3.5 Total Bases | 6% | — | — | — |
Ty France Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 1% | 6% |
Henry Davis Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | 6% |
Jake Cronenworth Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 7% | 5% |
Jacob Gonzalez Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | 6% |
Oneil Cruz Over 0.5 Home Runs | 99% | — | 1% | 5% |
Luis Campusano Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | 5% |
Jackson Merrill Over 2.5 Hits | 4% | — | — | — |
Paul Skenes Over 10.5 Strikeouts | 4% | — | — | — |
Nick Gonzales Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | 4% |
Jake Mangum Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 3% | 4% |
Manny Machado Over 2.5 Hits | 3% | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Total Bases | 2% | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Total Bases | 2% | — | — | — |
Oneil Cruz Over 4.5 Total Bases | 2% | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Home Runs | 2% | — | 1% | — |
Oneil Cruz Over 1.5 Home Runs | 2% | — | 1% | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Hits | 1% | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 3.5 Hits | 1% | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 1% | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Home Runs | 1% | — | 1% | — |
Manny Machado Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 1% | — | — | — |
Michael King Over 7.5 Strikeouts | 1% | — | — | — |
Michael King Over 8.5 Strikeouts | 1% | — | — | — |
Over 2.5 runs scored | 1% | — | — | — |
Paul Skenes Over 7.5 Strikeouts | 1% | — | — | — |
Paul Skenes Over 9.5 Strikeouts | 1% | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 RBIs | 0% | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 0% | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 0% | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 4.5 Total Bases | 0% | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 0.5 RBIs | 0% | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 1.5 RBIs | 0% | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 0% | — | — | — |
Oneil Cruz Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 0% | — | — | — |
Oneil Cruz Over 2.5 Hits | 0% | — | — | — |
Oneil Cruz Over 2.5 RBIs | 0% | — | — | — |
Oneil Cruz Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 0% | — | — | — |
Paul Skenes Over 0.5 Earned Runs | 0% | — | — | — |
Michael King Over 3.5 Strikeouts | 99% | — | 1% | — |
Michael King Over 4.5 Strikeouts | 99% | — | 1% | — |
Michael King Over 5.5 Strikeouts | 99% | — | 1% | 99% |
Pittsburgh Pirates
76.6% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Polymarket US and ProphetX.
KalshiIf Pittsburgh wins the Pittsburgh vs San Diego professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 25, 2026 at 9:40 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Pittsburgh vs San Diego professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 25, 2026 at 9:40 PM EDT. If this game is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled game has finished (within two days). If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over two days away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
PolymarketIn the upcoming MLB game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and San Diego Padres, scheduled for August 25 at 9:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates win the game. This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Polymarket USThis market will settle to the winner of the Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres MLB game scheduled for 2026-08-25 at 9:40PM ET. Extra innings are included if played. If the game is delayed, postponed, or suspended and not rescheduled to a date within two weeks of the originally scheduled date, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from MLB.
Sports moneyline - resolves based on official game outcome per ProphetX Prediction Rules
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, ProphetX in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
The last available prices are Pittsburgh Pirates: 99.0¢ on Kalshi, 32.5¢ on Polymarket, 91.8¢ on ProphetX, 83.0¢ on Polymarket US; San Diego Padres: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 67.5¢ on Polymarket, 9.4¢ on ProphetX, 17.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
The largest price difference shown across venues is 66.5 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.
For example, Pittsburgh Pirates at 76.6¢ implies about a 76.6% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading. Historical prices alone do not identify the winning outcome.