About This Market
San Diego Padres vs.
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants (4:05 PM ET): MLB game held on 2026-09-12. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Live prediction market odds for San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants (4:05 PM ET). Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Novig and Polymarket and ProphetX.
MLB·Resolved 2026-09-12
This market resolved on 2026-09-12. San Diego Padres was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 98%.
San Diego Padres vs.
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants (4:05 PM ET): MLB game held on 2026-09-12. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate | ![]() | ![]() | ![]() | ![]() | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Michael King Over 18.5 Pitcher Outs | 100% | — | — | — | — |
Cesar Perdomo Over 1.5 Strikeouts | 99% | — | — | — | — |
Cesar Perdomo Over 2.5 Strikeouts | 99% | — | — | — | — |
Drew Gilbert Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 Hits | 99% | — | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 RBIs | 99% | — | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 Stolen Bases | 99% | — | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases | 99% | — | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 2.5 Total Bases | 99% | — | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 3.5 Total Bases | 99% | — | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 4.5 Total Bases | 99% | — | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 Hits | 99% | — | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 RBIs | 99% | — | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Total Bases | 99% | — | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 2.5 Total Bases | 99% | — | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 3.5 Total Bases | 99% | — | — | — | — |
Michael King Over 1.5 Earned Runs | 99% | — | — | — | — |
Michael King Over 1.5 Strikeouts | 99% | — | — | — | — |
Michael King Over 2.5 Strikeouts | 99% | — | — | — | — |
Rafael Devers Over 0.5 Hits | 99% | — | — | — | — |
Rafael Devers Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | — | — |
Rafael Devers Over 0.5 RBIs | 99% | — | — | — | — |
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 RBIs | 99% | — | — | — | — |
Rafael Devers Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | — | — |
Rafael Devers Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | — | — |
Shay Whitcomb Over 0.5 Home Runs | 99% | — | — | — | — |
Cesar Perdomo Over 0.5 Earned Runs | 98% | — | — | — | — |
Cesar Perdomo Over 1.5 Earned Runs | 98% | — | — | — | — |
Cesar Perdomo Over 2.5 Earned Runs | 98% | — | — | — | — |
Cesar Perdomo Over 3.5 Earned Runs | 98% | — | — | — | — |
Cesar Perdomo Over 4.5 Earned Runs | 98% | — | — | — | — |
Michael King Over 0.5 Earned Runs | 98% | — | — | — | — |
Michael King Over 2.5 Earned Runs | 98% | — | — | — | — |
San Diego Padres spread plus 4.5 | — | — | — | — | 95% |
Manny Machado Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | — | 92% |
San Diego Padres spread plus 3.5 | — | — | — | — | 91% |
San Diego PadresWINNER | 99% | 56% | 91% | 100% | 98% |
Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | — | 90% |
Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | — | 89% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | — | 88% |
San Francisco Giants spread plus 4.5 | — | — | — | — | 88% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Hits | 88% | — | — | — | — |
San Diego Padres spread plus 2.5 | — | — | — | 99% | 87% |
Total over 9.5 | 100% | — | — | 100% | 85% |
San Diego Padres spread plus 1.5 | — | — | — | 89% | 78% |
Rafael Devers Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | — | 82% |
Total under 12.5 | — | — | — | — | 79% |
Manny Machado Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 75% | — | — | — | — |
San Diego Padres spread plus 1.0 | — | — | — | — | 75% |
Osleivis Basabe Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 69% |
Cesar Perdomo Over 3.5 Strikeouts | 79% | — | — | — | 57% |
Total over 8.5 | 99% | — | 44% | 100% | 91% |
Osleivis Basabe Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 67% |
Drew Gilbert Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 65% |
Turner Hill Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 65% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | — | 64% |
Mason McCoy Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 64% |
San Diego Padres spread minus 3.5 | 1% | — | 45% | — | 80% |
Bryce Eldridge Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 62% |
Christian Koss Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | — | 62% |
Total under 9.0 | — | — | — | — | 62% |
Total over 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 62% |
Jake Cronenworth Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 61% |
Jung Hoo Lee Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 61% |
Samad Taylor Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 61% |
Michael King Over 3.5 Strikeouts | 61% | — | — | — | — |
Total over 11.5 | 61% | — | 51% | — | 67% |
Shay Whitcomb Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | — | 60% |
Austin Hays Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 59% |
Total under 11.5 | — | — | 49% | — | 67% |
San Diego Padres spread minus 1.0 | — | — | — | — | 58% |
Drew Cavanaugh Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | — | 57% |
San Diego Padres spread minus 2.5 | 1% | — | — | 47% | 67% |
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 56% | — | — | — | 58% |
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | — | 56% |
Rafael Devers Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 56% |
Luis Campusano Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 54% |
Xander Bogaerts Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | — | 54% |
Total over 7.5 | 99% | — | 53% | 91% | 49% |
Total under 10.5 | — | — | — | — | 52% |
Total under 8.0 | — | — | — | — | 52% |
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | — | 51% |
Drew Cavanaugh Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 50% |
Manny Machado Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 50% |
Xander Bogaerts Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 50% |
Total over 8.0 | — | — | — | — | 50% |
Jackson Merrill Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 50% |
Michael King Under 4.5 Strikeouts | — | — | — | — | 50% |
Austin Hays Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | — | 49% |
Luis Campusano Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 45% | — | — | — | 53% |
Jake Cronenworth Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | — | 48% |
Samad Taylor Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | — | 48% |
Cesar Perdomo Under 3.5 Strikeouts | — | — | — | — | 48% |
Total under 7.5 | — | — | 47% | 9% | 54% |
Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 46% | — | — | — | 47% |
Shay Whitcomb Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 47% |
Mason McCoy Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 46% |
Christian Koss Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 45% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | — | 45% |
Drew Gilbert Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | — | 44% |
San Francisco Giants spread plus 3.5 | — | — | 58% | — | 30% |
San Diego Padres spread minus 1.5 | 4% | — | 56% | 32% | 73% |
San Francisco Giants spread plus 1.5 | — | — | 44% | 68% | 32% |
San Francisco Giants spread plus 1.0 | — | — | — | — | 44% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 44% |
San Francisco Giants spread plus 2.5 | — | — | — | 53% | 33% |
Total under 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 43% |
Osleivis Basabe Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 43% |
Turner Hill Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 41% | — | — | — | 43% |
Michael King Over 4.5 Strikeouts | 31% | — | — | — | 53% |
Cesar Perdomo Over 4.5 Strikeouts | 1% | — | — | — | 40% |
Osleivis Basabe Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 40% |
Total over 9.0 | — | — | — | — | 40% |
Total under 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 40% |
Total under 5.5 | — | — | — | — | 35% |
Total under 8.5 | — | — | 57% | 0% | 13% |
Bryce Eldridge Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 22% | — | — | — | 46% |
Jackson Merrill Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 32% | — | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 30% | — | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 29% | — | — | — | — |
San Francisco Giants spread minus 1.0 | — | — | — | — | 28% |
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Hits | 27% | — | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 0.5 Hits | 25% | — | — | — | — |
San Diego Padres spread minus 4.5 | — | — | — | — | 23% |
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Total Bases | 23% | — | — | — | — |
Rafael Devers Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 23% | — | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 22% | — | — | — | — |
Total under 4.5 | — | — | — | — | 22% |
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Hits | 21% | — | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 3.5 Total Bases | 21% | — | — | — | — |
Michael King Over 6.5 Strikeouts | 21% | — | — | — | — |
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Hits | 21% | — | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 2.5 Hits | 20% | — | — | — | — |
San Francisco Giants spread minus 2.5 | 1% | — | — | 1% | 20% |
Rafael Devers Over 0.5 Home Runs | 99% | — | — | — | 20% |
Total under 9.5 | — | — | — | 0% | 19% |
Michael King Over 5.5 Strikeouts | 19% | — | — | — | — |
San Francisco Giants spread minus 1.5 | 1% | — | — | 11% | 25% |
Jackson Merrill Over 2.5 Hits | 17% | — | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 2.5 Total Bases | 17% | — | — | — | — |
Total under 3.5 | — | — | — | — | 16% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 Home Runs | 100% | — | — | — | 16% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 RBIs | 15% | — | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 RBIs | 15% | — | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 1.5 RBIs | 15% | — | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 Home Runs | 99% | — | — | — | 14% |
Manny Machado Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 14% | — | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 0.5 Home Runs | 11% | — | — | — | 15% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 13% | — | — | — | — |
San Francisco Giants spread minus 3.5 | 1% | — | — | — | 11% |
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 Stolen Bases | 11% | — | — | — | — |
Michael King Over 7.5 Strikeouts | 11% | — | — | — | — |
Drew Gilbert Over 0.5 Home Runs | 1% | — | — | — | 11% |
Austin Hays Over 0.5 Home Runs | 8% | — | — | — | 12% |
Jackson Merrill Over 4.5 Total Bases | 9% | — | — | — | — |
San Francisco Giants | 1% | 44% | 9% | 0% | 5% |
San Francisco Giants spread minus 4.5 | — | — | — | — | 8% |
Bryce Eldridge Over 0.5 Home Runs | 2% | — | — | — | 15% |
Xander Bogaerts Over 0.5 Home Runs | 6% | — | — | — | 10% |
Manny Machado Over 2.5 Hits | 7% | — | — | — | — |
Luis Campusano Over 0.5 Home Runs | 2% | — | — | — | 11% |
Manny Machado Over 0.5 Stolen Bases | 6% | — | — | — | — |
Jung Hoo Lee Over 0.5 Home Runs | 4% | — | — | — | 7% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 5.5 Total Bases | 5% | — | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 2.5 RBIs | 5% | — | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 2.5 RBIs | 5% | — | — | — | — |
Michael King Over 8.5 Strikeouts | 5% | — | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 3.5 Hits | 4% | — | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 3.5 Hits | 4% | — | — | — | — |
Rafael Devers Over 2.5 Hits | 4% | — | — | — | — |
Samad Taylor Over 0.5 Home Runs | 4% | — | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Home Runs | 4% | — | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Home Runs | 3% | — | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 0.5 RBIs | 2% | — | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Home Runs | 2% | — | — | — | — |
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Home Runs | 2% | — | — | — | — |
Jake Cronenworth Over 0.5 Home Runs | 2% | — | — | — | — |
Cesar Perdomo Over 15.5 Pitcher Outs | 1% | — | — | — | — |
Cesar Perdomo Over 5.5 Strikeouts | 1% | — | — | — | — |
Cesar Perdomo Over 6.5 Strikeouts | 1% | — | — | — | — |
Cesar Perdomo Over 7.5 Strikeouts | 1% | — | — | — | — |
Drew Cavanaugh Over 0.5 Home Runs | 1% | — | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 3.5 Hits | 1% | — | — | — | — |
Turner Hill Over 0.5 Home Runs | 1% | — | — | — | — |
Christian Koss Over 0.5 Home Runs | 1% | — | — | — | — |
Michael King Over 3.5 Earned Runs | 0% | — | — | — | — |
Michael King Over 4.5 Earned Runs | 0% | — | — | — | — |
Over 2.5 runs scored | — | — | — | — | — |
Total over 10.5 | — | — | — | — | — |
Total over 12.5 | — | — | — | — | — |
Total over 3.5 | — | — | — | — | — |
Total over 4.5 | — | — | — | — | — |
Total over 5.5 | — | — | — | — | — |
Total over 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — |
San Diego Padres
88.8% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Novig and Polymarket and Polymarket US and ProphetX.
KalshiIf San Francisco wins the San Diego vs San Francisco professional baseball game originally scheduled for Sep 12, 2026 at 4:05 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the San Diego vs San Francisco professional baseball game originally scheduled for Sep 12, 2026 at 4:05 PM EDT. If this game is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled game has finished (within two days). If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over two days away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
NovigSan Francisco Giants in San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants (MLB); settled by Novig.
If the contract cannot be settled on the stated outcome, Novig settles it at fair market value (FMV) instead of refunding it.
PolymarketIn the upcoming MLB game between the San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants, scheduled for September 12 at 4:05PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game. This market will resolve to "San Francisco Giants" if the San Francisco Giants win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Polymarket USThis market will settle to the winner of the San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants MLB game scheduled for 2026-09-12 at 4:05PM ET. Extra innings are included if played. If the game is delayed, postponed, or suspended and not rescheduled to a date within two weeks of the originally scheduled date, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from MLB.
Sports moneyline - resolves based on official game outcome per ProphetX Prediction Rules
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Novig, Polymarket, ProphetX in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
The last available prices are San Diego Padres: 99.0¢ on Kalshi, 99.9¢ on Polymarket, 98.2¢ on ProphetX, 56.0¢ on Polymarket US, 91.0¢ on Novig; San Francisco Giants: 0.5¢ on Kalshi, 0.1¢ on Polymarket, 5.1¢ on ProphetX, 43.5¢ on Polymarket US, 9.0¢ on Novig. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
The largest price difference shown across venues is 43.9 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.
For example, San Diego Padres at 88.8¢ implies about a 88.8% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading. Historical prices alone do not identify the winning outcome.