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Live prediction market odds for San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants (4:05 PM ET). Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Novig and Polymarket and ProphetX.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket US / Novig / Polymarket / ProphetX

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San Diego Padres Wins: San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants (4:05 PM ET)

MLB·Resolved 2026-09-12

This market resolved on 2026-09-12. San Diego Padres was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 98%.

About This Market

San Diego Padres vs.

San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants (4:05 PM ET): MLB game held on 2026-09-12. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Final Closing Odds

5 platforms
Candidate
Kalshi
Polymarket US
Novig
Polymarket
ProphetX
Michael King Over 18.5 Pitcher Outs
100%————
Cesar Perdomo Over 1.5 Strikeouts
99%————
Cesar Perdomo Over 2.5 Strikeouts
99%————
Drew Gilbert Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%————
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 Hits
99%————
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%————
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 RBIs
99%————
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 Stolen Bases
99%————
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases
99%————
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 2.5 Total Bases
99%————
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%————
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 3.5 Total Bases
99%————
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 4.5 Total Bases
99%————
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 Hits
99%————
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%————
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 RBIs
99%————
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Total Bases
99%————
Jackson Merrill Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%————
Jackson Merrill Over 2.5 Total Bases
99%————
Jackson Merrill Over 3.5 Total Bases
99%————
Michael King Over 1.5 Earned Runs
99%————
Michael King Over 1.5 Strikeouts
99%————
Michael King Over 2.5 Strikeouts
99%————
Rafael Devers Over 0.5 Hits
99%————
Rafael Devers Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%————
Rafael Devers Over 0.5 RBIs
99%————
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 RBIs
99%————
Rafael Devers Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%————
Rafael Devers Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%————
Shay Whitcomb Over 0.5 Home Runs
99%————
Cesar Perdomo Over 0.5 Earned Runs
98%————
Cesar Perdomo Over 1.5 Earned Runs
98%————
Cesar Perdomo Over 2.5 Earned Runs
98%————
Cesar Perdomo Over 3.5 Earned Runs
98%————
Cesar Perdomo Over 4.5 Earned Runs
98%————
Michael King Over 0.5 Earned Runs
98%————
Michael King Over 2.5 Earned Runs
98%————
San Diego Padres spread plus 4.5
————95%
Manny Machado Under 0.5 Home Runs
————92%
San Diego Padres spread plus 3.5
————91%
San Diego PadresWINNER
99%56%91%100%98%
Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 Home Runs
————90%
Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 Home Runs
————89%
Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 Home Runs
————88%
San Francisco Giants spread plus 4.5
————88%
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Hits
88%————
San Diego Padres spread plus 2.5
———99%87%
Total over 9.5
100%——100%85%
San Diego Padres spread plus 1.5
———89%78%
Rafael Devers Under 0.5 Home Runs
————82%
Total under 12.5
————79%
Manny Machado Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
75%————
San Diego Padres spread plus 1.0
————75%
Osleivis Basabe Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
————69%
Cesar Perdomo Over 3.5 Strikeouts
79%———57%
Total over 8.5
99%—44%100%91%
Osleivis Basabe Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
————67%
Drew Gilbert Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
————65%
Turner Hill Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
————65%
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———64%
Mason McCoy Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
————64%
San Diego Padres spread minus 3.5
1%—45%—80%
Bryce Eldridge Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
————62%
Christian Koss Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———62%
Total under 9.0
————62%
Total over 7.0
————62%
Jake Cronenworth Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
————61%
Jung Hoo Lee Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
————61%
Samad Taylor Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
————61%
Michael King Over 3.5 Strikeouts
61%————
Total over 11.5
61%—51%—67%
Shay Whitcomb Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———60%
Austin Hays Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
————59%
Total under 11.5
——49%—67%
San Diego Padres spread minus 1.0
————58%
Drew Cavanaugh Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———57%
San Diego Padres spread minus 2.5
1%——47%67%
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
56%———58%
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———56%
Rafael Devers Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
————56%
Luis Campusano Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
————54%
Xander Bogaerts Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———54%
Total over 7.5
99%—53%91%49%
Total under 10.5
————52%
Total under 8.0
————52%
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———51%
Drew Cavanaugh Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
————50%
Manny Machado Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
————50%
Xander Bogaerts Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
————50%
Total over 8.0
————50%
Jackson Merrill Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
————50%
Michael King Under 4.5 Strikeouts
————50%
Austin Hays Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———49%
Luis Campusano Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
45%———53%
Jake Cronenworth Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———48%
Samad Taylor Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———48%
Cesar Perdomo Under 3.5 Strikeouts
————48%
Total under 7.5
——47%9%54%
Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
46%———47%
Shay Whitcomb Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
————47%
Mason McCoy Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
————46%
Christian Koss Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
————45%
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———45%
Drew Gilbert Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———44%
San Francisco Giants spread plus 3.5
——58%—30%
San Diego Padres spread minus 1.5
4%—56%32%73%
San Francisco Giants spread plus 1.5
——44%68%32%
San Francisco Giants spread plus 1.0
————44%
Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
————44%
San Francisco Giants spread plus 2.5
———53%33%
Total under 6.5
————43%
Osleivis Basabe Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
————43%
Turner Hill Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
41%———43%
Michael King Over 4.5 Strikeouts
31%———53%
Cesar Perdomo Over 4.5 Strikeouts
1%———40%
Osleivis Basabe Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
————40%
Total over 9.0
————40%
Total under 7.0
————40%
Total under 5.5
————35%
Total under 8.5
——57%0%13%
Bryce Eldridge Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
22%———46%
Jackson Merrill Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
32%————
Jackson Merrill Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
30%————
Manny Machado Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
29%————
San Francisco Giants spread minus 1.0
————28%
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Hits
27%————
Manny Machado Over 0.5 Hits
25%————
San Diego Padres spread minus 4.5
————23%
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Total Bases
23%————
Rafael Devers Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
23%————
Manny Machado Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
22%————
Total under 4.5
————22%
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Hits
21%————
Manny Machado Over 3.5 Total Bases
21%————
Michael King Over 6.5 Strikeouts
21%————
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Hits
21%————
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 2.5 Hits
20%————
San Francisco Giants spread minus 2.5
1%——1%20%
Rafael Devers Over 0.5 Home Runs
99%———20%
Total under 9.5
———0%19%
Michael King Over 5.5 Strikeouts
19%————
San Francisco Giants spread minus 1.5
1%——11%25%
Jackson Merrill Over 2.5 Hits
17%————
Manny Machado Over 2.5 Total Bases
17%————
Total under 3.5
————16%
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 Home Runs
100%———16%
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 RBIs
15%————
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 RBIs
15%————
Manny Machado Over 1.5 RBIs
15%————
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 Home Runs
99%———14%
Manny Machado Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
14%————
Manny Machado Over 0.5 Home Runs
11%———15%
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
13%————
San Francisco Giants spread minus 3.5
1%———11%
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 Stolen Bases
11%————
Michael King Over 7.5 Strikeouts
11%————
Drew Gilbert Over 0.5 Home Runs
1%———11%
Austin Hays Over 0.5 Home Runs
8%———12%
Jackson Merrill Over 4.5 Total Bases
9%————
San Francisco Giants
1%44%9%0%5%
San Francisco Giants spread minus 4.5
————8%
Bryce Eldridge Over 0.5 Home Runs
2%———15%
Xander Bogaerts Over 0.5 Home Runs
6%———10%
Manny Machado Over 2.5 Hits
7%————
Luis Campusano Over 0.5 Home Runs
2%———11%
Manny Machado Over 0.5 Stolen Bases
6%————
Jung Hoo Lee Over 0.5 Home Runs
4%———7%
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 5.5 Total Bases
5%————
Jackson Merrill Over 2.5 RBIs
5%————
Manny Machado Over 2.5 RBIs
5%————
Michael King Over 8.5 Strikeouts
5%————
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 3.5 Hits
4%————
Jackson Merrill Over 3.5 Hits
4%————
Rafael Devers Over 2.5 Hits
4%————
Samad Taylor Over 0.5 Home Runs
4%————
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Home Runs
4%————
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Home Runs
3%————
Manny Machado Over 0.5 RBIs
2%————
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Home Runs
2%————
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Home Runs
2%————
Jake Cronenworth Over 0.5 Home Runs
2%————
Cesar Perdomo Over 15.5 Pitcher Outs
1%————
Cesar Perdomo Over 5.5 Strikeouts
1%————
Cesar Perdomo Over 6.5 Strikeouts
1%————
Cesar Perdomo Over 7.5 Strikeouts
1%————
Drew Cavanaugh Over 0.5 Home Runs
1%————
Manny Machado Over 3.5 Hits
1%————
Turner Hill Over 0.5 Home Runs
1%————
Christian Koss Over 0.5 Home Runs
1%————
Michael King Over 3.5 Earned Runs
0%————
Michael King Over 4.5 Earned Runs
0%————
Over 2.5 runs scored
—————
Total over 10.5
—————
Total over 12.5
—————
Total over 3.5
—————
Total over 4.5
—————
Total over 5.5
—————
Total over 6.5
—————

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
ProphetXProphetX
ProphetX Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread43.9%
Platforms5
Candidates2
Winner

San Diego Padres

88.8% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants (4:05 PM ET)

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Novig and Polymarket and Polymarket US and ProphetX.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If San Francisco wins the San Diego vs San Francisco professional baseball game originally scheduled for Sep 12, 2026 at 4:05 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The following market refers to the San Diego vs San Francisco professional baseball game originally scheduled for Sep 12, 2026 at 4:05 PM EDT. If this game is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled game has finished (within two days). If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over two days away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
NovigNovig
Primary Rule

San Francisco Giants in San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants (MLB); settled by Novig.

Edge Cases

If the contract cannot be settled on the stated outcome, Novig settles it at fair market value (FMV) instead of refunding it.

PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

In the upcoming MLB game between the San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants, scheduled for September 12 at 4:05PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game. This market will resolve to "San Francisco Giants" if the San Francisco Giants win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to the winner of the San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants MLB game scheduled for 2026-09-12 at 4:05PM ET. Extra innings are included if played. If the game is delayed, postponed, or suspended and not rescheduled to a date within two weeks of the originally scheduled date, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from MLB.

ProphetXProphetX
Primary Rule

Sports moneyline - resolves based on official game outcome per ProphetX Prediction Rules

Resolution Oracles
ProphetX Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants (4:05 PM ET) prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Novig, Polymarket, ProphetX in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.

What were the last available San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants (4:05 PM ET) odds?

The last available prices are San Diego Padres: 99.0¢ on Kalshi, 99.9¢ on Polymarket, 98.2¢ on ProphetX, 56.0¢ on Polymarket US, 91.0¢ on Novig; San Francisco Giants: 0.5¢ on Kalshi, 0.1¢ on Polymarket, 5.1¢ on ProphetX, 43.5¢ on Polymarket US, 9.0¢ on Novig. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.

Why do San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants (4:05 PM ET) odds vary across prediction markets?

The largest price difference shown across venues is 43.9 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.

How do San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants (4:05 PM ET) prediction market payouts work?

For example, San Diego Padres at 88.8¢ implies about a 88.8% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading. Historical prices alone do not identify the winning outcome.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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