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San Diego Padres vs.
San Diego Padres vs. Tampa Bay Rays (4:10 PM ET) — MLB game held on 2026-08-29. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Live prediction market odds for San Diego Padres vs. Tampa Bay Rays (4:10 PM ET). Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket and ProphetX.
MLB·Resolved 2026-08-29
This market resolved on 2026-08-29. Tampa Bay Rays was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 93%.
San Diego Padres vs.
San Diego Padres vs. Tampa Bay Rays (4:10 PM ET) — MLB game held on 2026-08-29. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate | ![]() | ![]() | ![]() | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 100% | — |
Liam Hicks Under 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 100% | — |
Luis Rengifo Under 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 100% | — |
Nick Martinez Over 1.5 Strikeouts | 99% | — | 100% | — |
Nick Martinez Over 2.5 Strikeouts | 99% | — | 100% | — |
Walker Buehler Over 2.5 Strikeouts | 99% | — | 100% | — |
Jackson Merrill Under 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 99% | — |
Jonathan Aranda Under 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 99% | — |
Ty France Under 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 99% | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 Hits | 99% | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | — |
Jonathan Aranda Over 0.5 Hits | 99% | — | — | — |
Jonathan Aranda Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | — |
Jonathan Aranda Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | — |
Junior Caminero Over 0.5 Hits | 99% | — | — | — |
Junior Caminero Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | — |
Junior Caminero Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 0.5 Hits | 99% | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Hits | 99% | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | — |
Over 1.5 runs scored | 99% | — | — | — |
Over 11.5 runs scored | 99% | — | — | — |
Over 2.5 runs scored | 99% | — | — | — |
Over 3.5 runs scored | 99% | — | — | — |
Walker Buehler Over 7.5 Strikeouts | — | — | 99% | — |
Yandy Diaz Over 0.5 Hits | 99% | — | — | — |
Yandy Diaz Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | — |
Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 Hits | 99% | — | — | — |
Yandy Diaz Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | — |
Yandy Diaz Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 1% | 99% |
Ty France Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 0% | 99% |
Manny Machado Under 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 99% | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 98% | — |
Tampa Bay Rays spread plus 2.5 | — | — | 98% | 98% |
Richie Palacios Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 96% | 99% |
Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | 97% |
Taylor Walls Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 96% | 99% |
Jonathan Aranda Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 0% | 96% |
Jonny DeLuca Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 91% | 99% |
Liam Hicks Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 91% | 99% |
Luis Campusano Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 89% | 99% |
Gavin Sheets Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 88% | 99% |
Chandler Simpson Over 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 93% | — |
Junior Caminero Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 0% | 93% |
San Diego Padres spread plus 1.5 | — | — | 97% | 88% |
San Diego Padres spread plus 4.5 | — | — | — | 92% |
Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 92% | 99% |
Tampa Bay Rays spread plus 1.5 | — | — | 91% | 91% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 81% | 99% |
Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 80% | 99% |
Tampa Bay Rays spread plus 4.5 | — | — | — | 89% |
Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 89% | 99% |
Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 88% | 99% |
Total over 5.5 | 99% | — | — | 87% |
Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 86% | 99% |
San Diego Padres spread plus 3.5 | — | — | — | 86% |
San Diego Padres spread plus 2.5 | — | — | 85% | 86% |
Total over 4.5 | 99% | — | — | 85% |
Total over 7.5 | 99% | — | 100% | 80% |
Total over 6.5 | 99% | — | 100% | 78% |
Tampa Bay RaysWINNER | 99% | 69% | 99% | 87% |
Tampa Bay Rays spread plus 3.5 | — | — | — | 75% |
Total over 9.5 | 99% | — | — | 73% |
Walker Buehler Over 1.5 Strikeouts | 99% | — | 71% | — |
Tampa Bay Rays spread plus 1.0 | — | — | — | 68% |
Richie Palacios Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | 67% |
Total over 8.5 | 99% | — | 100% | 67% |
Xander Bogaerts Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 64% |
Cedric Mullins Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | 63% |
Taylor Walls Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | 63% |
Luis Rengifo Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 63% |
Luis Campusano Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 62% |
Total over 7.0 | — | — | — | 62% |
Gavin Sheets Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | 61% |
Nick Martinez Under 3.5 Strikeouts | — | — | 0% | 61% |
Walker Buehler Under 3.5 Strikeouts | — | — | 62% | 60% |
Jake Cronenworth Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 59% |
Liam Hicks Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 58% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | 58% |
Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | 58% |
Nick Martinez Under 7.5 Strikeouts | — | — | 58% | — |
Jonny DeLuca Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 57% |
Junior Caminero Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | 57% |
San Diego Padres spread plus 1.0 | — | — | — | 56% |
Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | 56% |
Ty France Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 55% |
Chandler Simpson Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | 54% |
Total under 8.0 | — | — | — | 54% |
Jackson Merrill Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 54% |
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | 52% |
Total under 10.5 | — | — | — | 52% |
Ty France Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | 51% |
Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 50% |
Total over 10.5 | 99% | — | — | 50% |
Total over 8.0 | — | — | — | 50% |
Junior Caminero Over 1.5 Home Runs | 9% | — | 91% | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 49% | — | — | 51% |
Jonathan Aranda Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 50% |
Manny Machado Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 49% |
Jonny DeLuca Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 48% | — | — | 49% |
Walker Buehler Over 6.5 Strikeouts | 3% | — | 94% | — |
Junior Caminero Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 48% |
Liam Hicks Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | 48% |
Yandy Diaz Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 48% |
Chandler Simpson Over 0.5 Home Runs | 2% | — | 91% | — |
Gavin Sheets Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 46% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 46% |
Jake Cronenworth Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 99% | — | — | 46% |
Tampa Bay Rays spread minus 1.0 | — | — | — | 46% |
Luis Rengifo Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 0% | — | — | 45% |
Nick Martinez Over 7.5 Strikeouts | — | — | 45% | — |
Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 45% |
Xander Bogaerts Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 45% |
San Diego Padres spread minus 1.0 | — | — | — | 43% |
Taylor Walls Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 43% |
Luis Campusano Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 42% | — | — | 43% |
Nick Martinez Over 3.5 Strikeouts | 99% | — | 100% | 42% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 41% | — | — | — |
Richie Palacios Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | 40% |
Total under 7.0 | — | — | — | 40% |
Total under 8.5 | — | — | 0% | 36% |
Walker Buehler Over 3.5 Strikeouts | 1% | — | 25% | 42% |
Total under 9.5 | — | — | — | 31% |
Jackson Merrill Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 31% | — | — | — |
Walker Buehler Under 1.5 Strikeouts | — | — | 31% | — |
San Diego Padres spread minus 3.5 | 1% | — | — | 29% |
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Hits | 26% | — | — | — |
Total under 7.5 | — | — | 0% | 25% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 25% | — | — | — |
Total under 6.5 | — | — | 0% | 24% |
San Diego Padres | 1% | 31% | 1% | 16% |
Total under 4.5 | — | — | — | 22% |
Jonathan Aranda Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 22% | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 2.5 Hits | 21% | — | — | — |
Jonathan Aranda Over 2.5 Hits | 20% | — | — | — |
Junior Caminero Over 0.5 Home Runs | 99% | — | 100% | 18% |
Jackson Merrill Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 18% | — | — | — |
Tampa Bay Rays spread minus 4.5 | — | — | — | 18% |
Total under 5.5 | — | — | — | 17% |
Tampa Bay Rays spread minus 2.5 | 1% | — | 16% | 19% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 Home Runs | 1% | — | 19% | 14% |
Junior Caminero Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 16% | — | — | — |
Jonathan Aranda Over 0.5 Home Runs | 99% | — | 100% | 15% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 15% | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 Hits | 15% | — | — | — |
San Diego Padres spread minus 4.5 | — | — | — | 15% |
Tampa Bay Rays spread minus 3.5 | 7% | — | — | 19% |
Jackson Merrill Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 12% | — | — | — |
Junior Caminero Over 1.5 Hits | 12% | — | — | — |
San Diego Padres spread minus 1.5 | 1% | — | 9% | 14% |
Gavin Sheets Over 0.5 Home Runs | 3% | — | 12% | 11% |
Ty France Over 0.5 Home Runs | 99% | — | 100% | 11% |
Xander Bogaerts Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | 11% |
Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 Hits | 11% | — | — | — |
Luis Campusano Over 0.5 Home Runs | 1% | — | 11% | 9% |
Tampa Bay Rays spread minus 1.5 | 1% | — | 3% | 16% |
Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | 9% | — |
Junior Caminero Under 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 9% | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 2.5 Hits | 8% | — | — | — |
Liam Hicks Over 0.5 Home Runs | 3% | — | 10% | 8% |
Junior Caminero Over 2.5 Hits | 7% | — | — | — |
Richie Palacios Over 0.5 Home Runs | 7% | — | 4% | 9% |
Walker Buehler Under 6.5 Strikeouts | — | — | 6% | — |
Jake Cronenworth Over 0.5 Home Runs | 2% | — | — | 10% |
Luis Rengifo Over 0.5 Home Runs | 3% | — | 9% | 6% |
Yandy Diaz Over 0.5 Home Runs | 1% | — | 99% | 6% |
Cedric Mullins Over 0.5 Home Runs | 3% | — | 11% | 5% |
Jonny DeLuca Over 0.5 Home Runs | 3% | — | 9% | 5% |
Manny Machado Over 0.5 Home Runs | 2% | — | 99% | 8% |
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 Home Runs | 3% | — | 10% | 5% |
San Diego Padres spread minus 2.5 | 1% | — | 2% | 7% |
Taylor Walls Over 0.5 Home Runs | 4% | — | 4% | 5% |
Ty France Over 1.5 Home Runs | 4% | — | 1% | — |
Yandy Diaz Over 3.5 Hits | 4% | — | — | — |
Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 Home Runs | 4% | — | 1% | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Home Runs | 3% | — | 2% | — |
Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 Home Runs | 2% | — | 100% | — |
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Home Runs | 2% | — | 1% | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Home Runs | 1% | — | 1% | — |
Liam Hicks Over 1.5 Home Runs | 0% | — | 1% | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Hits | 1% | — | — | — |
Walker Buehler Under 7.5 Strikeouts | — | — | 1% | — |
Yandy Diaz Over 2.5 Hits | 1% | — | — | — |
Yandy Diaz Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 1% | — | — | — |
Luis Rengifo Over 1.5 Home Runs | 0% | — | 0% | — |
Nick Martinez Under 1.5 Strikeouts | — | — | 0% | — |
Nick Martinez Under 2.5 Strikeouts | — | — | 0% | — |
Nick Martinez Under 6.5 Strikeouts | — | — | 0% | — |
Walker Buehler Under 2.5 Strikeouts | — | — | 0% | — |
Yandy Diaz Under 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | 0% | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 3.5 Hits | 0% | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 0% | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 2.5 Hits | 0% | — | — | — |
Jonathan Aranda Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 0% | — | — | — |
Junior Caminero Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | 0% | — | — | — |
Nick Martinez Over 6.5 Strikeouts | 1% | — | 100% | — |
Tampa Bay Rays
88.4% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Polymarket US and ProphetX.
KalshiIf San Diego wins the San Diego vs Tampa Bay professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 29, 2026 at 4:10 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the San Diego vs Tampa Bay professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 29, 2026 at 4:10 PM EDT. If this game is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled game has finished (within two days). If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over two days away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
PolymarketIn the upcoming MLB game between the San Diego Padres and Tampa Bay Rays, scheduled for August 29 at 4:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game. This market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays" if the Tampa Bay Rays win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Polymarket USThis market will settle to the winner of the San Diego Padres vs Tampa Bay Rays MLB game scheduled for 2026-08-29 at 4:10PM ET. Extra innings are included if played. If the game is delayed, postponed, or suspended and not rescheduled to a date within two weeks of the originally scheduled date, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from MLB.
Sports moneyline - resolves based on official game outcome per ProphetX Prediction Rules
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, ProphetX in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
The last available prices are Tampa Bay Rays: 99.0¢ on Kalshi, 99.0¢ on Polymarket, 86.5¢ on ProphetX, 69.0¢ on Polymarket US; San Diego Padres: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 1.0¢ on Polymarket, 15.9¢ on ProphetX, 31.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
The largest price difference shown across venues is 30.0 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.
For example, Tampa Bay Rays at 88.4¢ implies about a 88.4% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading. Historical prices alone do not identify the winning outcome.