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Live prediction market odds for San Diego Padres vs. Tampa Bay Rays (4:10 PM ET). Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket and ProphetX.

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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket / ProphetX

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Tampa Bay Rays Wins: San Diego Padres vs. Tampa Bay Rays (4:10 PM ET)

MLB·Resolved 2026-08-29

This market resolved on 2026-08-29. Tampa Bay Rays was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 93%.

About This Market

San Diego Padres vs.

San Diego Padres vs. Tampa Bay Rays (4:10 PM ET) — MLB game held on 2026-08-29. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Final Closing Odds

4 platforms
Candidate
Kalshi
Polymarket US
Polymarket
ProphetX
Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 Home Runs
——100%—
Liam Hicks Under 1.5 Home Runs
——100%—
Luis Rengifo Under 1.5 Home Runs
——100%—
Nick Martinez Over 1.5 Strikeouts
99%—100%—
Nick Martinez Over 2.5 Strikeouts
99%—100%—
Walker Buehler Over 2.5 Strikeouts
99%—100%—
Jackson Merrill Under 1.5 Home Runs
——99%—
Jonathan Aranda Under 1.5 Home Runs
——99%—
Ty France Under 1.5 Home Runs
——99%—
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 Hits
99%———
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———
Jonathan Aranda Over 0.5 Hits
99%———
Jonathan Aranda Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———
Jonathan Aranda Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———
Junior Caminero Over 0.5 Hits
99%———
Junior Caminero Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———
Junior Caminero Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———
Manny Machado Over 0.5 Hits
99%———
Manny Machado Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Hits
99%———
Manny Machado Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———
Manny Machado Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———
Manny Machado Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———
Over 1.5 runs scored
99%———
Over 11.5 runs scored
99%———
Over 2.5 runs scored
99%———
Over 3.5 runs scored
99%———
Walker Buehler Over 7.5 Strikeouts
——99%—
Yandy Diaz Over 0.5 Hits
99%———
Yandy Diaz Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———
Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 Hits
99%———
Yandy Diaz Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———
Yandy Diaz Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———
Manny Machado Under 0.5 Home Runs
——1%99%
Ty France Under 0.5 Home Runs
——0%99%
Manny Machado Under 1.5 Home Runs
——99%—
Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 1.5 Home Runs
——98%—
Tampa Bay Rays spread plus 2.5
——98%98%
Richie Palacios Under 0.5 Home Runs
——96%99%
Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 Home Runs
———97%
Taylor Walls Under 0.5 Home Runs
——96%99%
Jonathan Aranda Under 0.5 Home Runs
——0%96%
Jonny DeLuca Under 0.5 Home Runs
——91%99%
Liam Hicks Under 0.5 Home Runs
——91%99%
Luis Campusano Under 0.5 Home Runs
——89%99%
Gavin Sheets Under 0.5 Home Runs
——88%99%
Chandler Simpson Over 1.5 Home Runs
——93%—
Junior Caminero Under 0.5 Home Runs
——0%93%
San Diego Padres spread plus 1.5
——97%88%
San Diego Padres spread plus 4.5
———92%
Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 Home Runs
——92%99%
Tampa Bay Rays spread plus 1.5
——91%91%
Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 Home Runs
——81%99%
Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 Home Runs
——80%99%
Tampa Bay Rays spread plus 4.5
———89%
Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 Home Runs
——89%99%
Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 Home Runs
——88%99%
Total over 5.5
99%——87%
Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 Home Runs
——86%99%
San Diego Padres spread plus 3.5
———86%
San Diego Padres spread plus 2.5
——85%86%
Total over 4.5
99%——85%
Total over 7.5
99%—100%80%
Total over 6.5
99%—100%78%
Tampa Bay RaysWINNER
99%69%99%87%
Tampa Bay Rays spread plus 3.5
———75%
Total over 9.5
99%——73%
Walker Buehler Over 1.5 Strikeouts
99%—71%—
Tampa Bay Rays spread plus 1.0
———68%
Richie Palacios Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%——67%
Total over 8.5
99%—100%67%
Xander Bogaerts Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———64%
Cedric Mullins Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%——63%
Taylor Walls Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%——63%
Luis Rengifo Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———63%
Luis Campusano Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———62%
Total over 7.0
———62%
Gavin Sheets Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%——61%
Nick Martinez Under 3.5 Strikeouts
——0%61%
Walker Buehler Under 3.5 Strikeouts
——62%60%
Jake Cronenworth Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———59%
Liam Hicks Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———58%
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%——58%
Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%——58%
Nick Martinez Under 7.5 Strikeouts
——58%—
Jonny DeLuca Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———57%
Junior Caminero Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%——57%
San Diego Padres spread plus 1.0
———56%
Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%——56%
Ty France Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———55%
Chandler Simpson Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%——54%
Total under 8.0
———54%
Jackson Merrill Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———54%
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%——52%
Total under 10.5
———52%
Ty France Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%——51%
Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———50%
Total over 10.5
99%——50%
Total over 8.0
———50%
Junior Caminero Over 1.5 Home Runs
9%—91%—
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
49%——51%
Jonathan Aranda Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———50%
Manny Machado Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———49%
Jonny DeLuca Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
48%——49%
Walker Buehler Over 6.5 Strikeouts
3%—94%—
Junior Caminero Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———48%
Liam Hicks Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%——48%
Yandy Diaz Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———48%
Chandler Simpson Over 0.5 Home Runs
2%—91%—
Gavin Sheets Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———46%
Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———46%
Jake Cronenworth Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%——46%
Tampa Bay Rays spread minus 1.0
———46%
Luis Rengifo Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
0%——45%
Nick Martinez Over 7.5 Strikeouts
——45%—
Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———45%
Xander Bogaerts Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———45%
San Diego Padres spread minus 1.0
———43%
Taylor Walls Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———43%
Luis Campusano Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
42%——43%
Nick Martinez Over 3.5 Strikeouts
99%—100%42%
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
41%———
Richie Palacios Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———40%
Total under 7.0
———40%
Total under 8.5
——0%36%
Walker Buehler Over 3.5 Strikeouts
1%—25%42%
Total under 9.5
———31%
Jackson Merrill Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
31%———
Walker Buehler Under 1.5 Strikeouts
——31%—
San Diego Padres spread minus 3.5
1%——29%
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Hits
26%———
Total under 7.5
——0%25%
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
25%———
Total under 6.5
——0%24%
San Diego Padres
1%31%1%16%
Total under 4.5
———22%
Jonathan Aranda Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
22%———
Manny Machado Over 2.5 Hits
21%———
Jonathan Aranda Over 2.5 Hits
20%———
Junior Caminero Over 0.5 Home Runs
99%—100%18%
Jackson Merrill Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
18%———
Tampa Bay Rays spread minus 4.5
———18%
Total under 5.5
———17%
Tampa Bay Rays spread minus 2.5
1%—16%19%
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 Home Runs
1%—19%14%
Junior Caminero Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
16%———
Jonathan Aranda Over 0.5 Home Runs
99%—100%15%
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
15%———
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 Hits
15%———
San Diego Padres spread minus 4.5
———15%
Tampa Bay Rays spread minus 3.5
7%——19%
Jackson Merrill Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
12%———
Junior Caminero Over 1.5 Hits
12%———
San Diego Padres spread minus 1.5
1%—9%14%
Gavin Sheets Over 0.5 Home Runs
3%—12%11%
Ty France Over 0.5 Home Runs
99%—100%11%
Xander Bogaerts Over 0.5 Home Runs
———11%
Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 Hits
11%———
Luis Campusano Over 0.5 Home Runs
1%—11%9%
Tampa Bay Rays spread minus 1.5
1%—3%16%
Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 Home Runs
——9%—
Junior Caminero Under 1.5 Home Runs
——9%—
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 2.5 Hits
8%———
Liam Hicks Over 0.5 Home Runs
3%—10%8%
Junior Caminero Over 2.5 Hits
7%———
Richie Palacios Over 0.5 Home Runs
7%—4%9%
Walker Buehler Under 6.5 Strikeouts
——6%—
Jake Cronenworth Over 0.5 Home Runs
2%——10%
Luis Rengifo Over 0.5 Home Runs
3%—9%6%
Yandy Diaz Over 0.5 Home Runs
1%—99%6%
Cedric Mullins Over 0.5 Home Runs
3%—11%5%
Jonny DeLuca Over 0.5 Home Runs
3%—9%5%
Manny Machado Over 0.5 Home Runs
2%—99%8%
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 Home Runs
3%—10%5%
San Diego Padres spread minus 2.5
1%—2%7%
Taylor Walls Over 0.5 Home Runs
4%—4%5%
Ty France Over 1.5 Home Runs
4%—1%—
Yandy Diaz Over 3.5 Hits
4%———
Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 Home Runs
4%—1%—
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Home Runs
3%—2%—
Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 Home Runs
2%—100%—
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Home Runs
2%—1%—
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Home Runs
1%—1%—
Liam Hicks Over 1.5 Home Runs
0%—1%—
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Hits
1%———
Walker Buehler Under 7.5 Strikeouts
——1%—
Yandy Diaz Over 2.5 Hits
1%———
Yandy Diaz Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
1%———
Luis Rengifo Over 1.5 Home Runs
0%—0%—
Nick Martinez Under 1.5 Strikeouts
——0%—
Nick Martinez Under 2.5 Strikeouts
——0%—
Nick Martinez Under 6.5 Strikeouts
——0%—
Walker Buehler Under 2.5 Strikeouts
——0%—
Yandy Diaz Under 1.5 Home Runs
——0%—
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 3.5 Hits
0%———
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
0%———
Jackson Merrill Over 2.5 Hits
0%———
Jonathan Aranda Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
0%———
Junior Caminero Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
0%———
Nick Martinez Over 6.5 Strikeouts
1%—100%—

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
ProphetXProphetX
ProphetX Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread30.0%
Platforms4
Candidates2
Winner

Tampa Bay Rays

88.4% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: San Diego Padres vs. Tampa Bay Rays (4:10 PM ET)

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Polymarket US and ProphetX.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If San Diego wins the San Diego vs Tampa Bay professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 29, 2026 at 4:10 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The following market refers to the San Diego vs Tampa Bay professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 29, 2026 at 4:10 PM EDT. If this game is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled game has finished (within two days). If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over two days away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

In the upcoming MLB game between the San Diego Padres and Tampa Bay Rays, scheduled for August 29 at 4:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game. This market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays" if the Tampa Bay Rays win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to the winner of the San Diego Padres vs Tampa Bay Rays MLB game scheduled for 2026-08-29 at 4:10PM ET. Extra innings are included if played. If the game is delayed, postponed, or suspended and not rescheduled to a date within two weeks of the originally scheduled date, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from MLB.

ProphetXProphetX
Primary Rule

Sports moneyline - resolves based on official game outcome per ProphetX Prediction Rules

Resolution Oracles
ProphetX Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the San Diego Padres vs. Tampa Bay Rays (4:10 PM ET) prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, ProphetX in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.

What were the last available San Diego Padres vs. Tampa Bay Rays (4:10 PM ET) odds?

The last available prices are Tampa Bay Rays: 99.0¢ on Kalshi, 99.0¢ on Polymarket, 86.5¢ on ProphetX, 69.0¢ on Polymarket US; San Diego Padres: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 1.0¢ on Polymarket, 15.9¢ on ProphetX, 31.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.

Why do San Diego Padres vs. Tampa Bay Rays (4:10 PM ET) odds vary across prediction markets?

The largest price difference shown across venues is 30.0 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.

How do San Diego Padres vs. Tampa Bay Rays (4:10 PM ET) prediction market payouts work?

For example, Tampa Bay Rays at 88.4¢ implies about a 88.4% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading. Historical prices alone do not identify the winning outcome.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Final odds