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Live prediction market odds for Oscar Winner: Best Adapted Screenplay. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

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Oscar Winner: Best Adapted Screenplay

2027-03-14

Best price · tap to trade

The Black Ball43¢2.33xKalshiThe Adventures of Cliff Booth4¢25.00xKalshiThe Social Reckoning4¢25.00xKalshi
Compare all 9 outcomes across 2 venues

About This Market

Traders give The Black Ball about a 37.3% chance. The Adventures of Cliff Booth follows at 4.5%, The Social Reckoning follows at 3.6%, and Dune: Part Three follows at 3.1%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.9 percentage points.

Traders give The Black Ball about a 37.3% chance. The Adventures of Cliff Booth follows at 4.5%, The Social Reckoning follows at 3.6%, and Dune: Part Three follows at 3.1%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.9 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Oscar Winner for Best Adapted Screenplay. This category garners attention as it highlights the creative achievements in film adaptations, influencing industry recognition and future projects for the nominees.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
TB
The Black Ball
37%
Kalshi43¢
Polymarket38¢
Kalshi2.33x43¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
38.0%37¢43¢57¢63¢
PolymarketPolymarket
36.5%35¢38¢62¢65¢
TA
The Adventures of Cliff BoothARB
4%
Kalshi4¢
Polymarket7¢
Kalshi25.00x4¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
2.5%1¢4¢96¢99¢
PolymarketPolymarket
6.4%6¢7¢93¢94¢
TS
The Social Reckoning
4%
Kalshi4¢
Polymarket8¢
Kalshi25.00x4¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
2.0%0¢4¢96¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
5.2%2¢8¢92¢98¢
DP
Dune: Part Three
3%
Kalshi5¢
Polymarket5¢
Kalshi20.00x5¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
3.5%2¢5¢95¢98¢
PolymarketPolymarket
2.8%0¢5¢95¢100¢
I
Ink
2%
Kalshi4¢
Polymarket5¢
Kalshi25.00x4¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
2.0%0¢4¢96¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
2.6%1¢5¢95¢100¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread3.9%
Platforms2
Candidates9
Leader

The Black Ball

37.3% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Oscar Winner: Best Adapted Screenplay

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Clarissa has won Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The 99th Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for Best Adapted Screenplay?

Odds are influenced by critical reception, box office performance, and awards season momentum. Additionally, industry buzz and prior accolades can sway predictions.

How do prediction markets work for the Oscars?

Prediction markets allow participants to bet on the outcomes of events like the Oscars, with prices reflecting the perceived likelihood of each nominee winning. As new information emerges, such as nominations and reviews, odds can fluctuate.

Why is Best Adapted Screenplay a significant category?

Best Adapted Screenplay recognizes the skill in transforming existing works into films, showcasing the importance of storytelling in cinema. Winning this award can elevate a writer's career and influence future projects.

What does the Oscar Winner: Best Adapted Screenplay prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Oscar Winner: Best Adapted Screenplay odds?

The latest available prices are The Black Ball: 38.0¢ on Kalshi, 36.5¢ on Polymarket; The Adventures of Cliff Booth: 2.5¢ on Kalshi, 6.4¢ on Polymarket; The Social Reckoning: 2.0¢ on Kalshi, 5.2¢ on Polymarket; Dune: Part Three: 3.5¢ on Kalshi, 2.8¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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