Oscar Winner: Best Adapted Screenplay
Live prediction market odds for Oscar Winner: Best Adapted Screenplay. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Compare all 15 outcomes across 2 venuesTraders give La Bola Negra about a 45.5% chance. The Invite follows at 24.5%, The Odyssey follows at 15.5%, and The Adventures of Cliff Booth follows at 3.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 4.0 percentage points.
Kalshi
PolymarketKalshiPolymarketBest price among US-regulated venues.
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Clarissa has won Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
The 99th Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi.
Odds are influenced by critical reception, box office performance, and awards season momentum. Additionally, industry buzz and prior accolades can sway predictions.
Prediction markets allow participants to bet on the outcomes of events like the Oscars, with prices reflecting the perceived likelihood of each nominee winning. As new information emerges, such as nominations and reviews, odds can fluctuate.
Best Adapted Screenplay recognizes the skill in transforming existing works into films, showcasing the importance of storytelling in cinema. Winning this award can elevate a writer's career and influence future projects.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are La Bola Negra: 47.5¢ on Kalshi, 43.5¢ on Polymarket; The Invite: 24.5¢ on Kalshi; The Odyssey: 15.5¢ on Kalshi; The Adventures of Cliff Booth: 5.0¢ on Kalshi, 1.0¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
