South Africa rate decision in November
Live prediction market odds for South Africa rate decision in November. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Traders give No Change about a 96.0% chance. 25 bps increase follows at 16.0%, 50+ bps increase follows at 12.0%, and 25 bps decrease follows at 0.6%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.0 percentage points.
Kalshi
PolymarketKalshiPolymarketBest price among US-regulated venues.
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf the South African Reserve Bank takes the action of cut 1-25bps at its November Monetary Policy Committee meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "Maintain current rate" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the repo rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 19, 2026, as listed on the official South African Reserve Bank calendar (https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/calendar). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Key factors include inflation rates, economic growth, and employment statistics. The South African Reserve Bank considers these indicators when deciding on interest rates.
Changes in interest rates can affect borrowing costs, consumer spending, and investment. A rate hike typically aims to curb inflation, while a cut may stimulate economic growth.
The exact announcement date is determined by the South African Reserve Bank's schedule. Markets will react to the decision as soon as it is made public.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are No Change: 95.0¢ on Kalshi, 97.0¢ on Polymarket; 25 bps increase: 17.0¢ on Kalshi, 15.0¢ on Polymarket; 50+ bps increase: 12.0¢ on Polymarket; 25 bps decrease: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 0.1¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
