Live prediction market odds for Tesla production in Q2. Compare prices across Kalshi.
Resolved 2026-08-21
This market resolved on 2026-08-21. Above 360000 was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |
|---|---|
Above 360000WINNER | 99% |
Above 400000 | 99% |
Above 410000 | 99% |
Above 420000 | 99% |
Above 430000 | 99% |
Above 440000 | 99% |
Above 450000 | 99% |
Above 320000 | 98% |
Above 340000 | 96% |
Above 380000 | 96% |
Above 460000 | 1% |
Above 470000 | 1% |
Above 480000 | 1% |
Above 360000
99.0% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Tesla Inc. reports above 320000 total production in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
The last available prices are Above 360000: 99.0¢ on Kalshi; Above 400000: 99.0¢ on Kalshi; Above 410000: 99.0¢ on Kalshi; Above 420000: 99.0¢ on Kalshi. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A cross-platform comparison needs available prices for the same outcome on at least two venues.
For example, Above 360000 at 99.0¢ implies about a 99.0% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading. Historical prices alone do not identify the winning outcome.
