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Live prediction market odds for TIME's Person of the Year for 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket

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TIME's Person of the Year for 2026?

2027-01-01

Best price · tap to trade

Zohran Mamdani30¢3.33xKalshiDonald Trump12¢8.33xKalshiDario Amodei9¢11.11xKalshi
Compare all 22 outcomes across 2 venues

About This Market

Traders give Zohran Mamdani about a 29.5% chance. Donald Trump follows at 11.0%, Dario Amodei follows at 9.0%, and Pope Leo XIV follows at 9.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.7 percentage points.

Traders give Zohran Mamdani about a 29.5% chance. Donald Trump follows at 11.0%, Dario Amodei follows at 9.0%, and Pope Leo XIV follows at 9.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.7 percentage points.

Kalshi is tracking the selection of TIME's Person of the Year for 2026. This recognition influences public perception and can significantly impact the careers of the individuals involved, making it a focal point of cultural and social discussions.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
ZM
Zohran Mamdani
single venue30%
Kalshi30¢
—
Kalshi3.33x30¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
29.5%29¢30¢70¢71¢
DT
Donald Trump
single venue11%
Kalshi12¢
—
Kalshi8.33x12¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
11.0%10¢12¢88¢90¢
DA
Dario Amodei
single venue9%
Kalshi9¢
—
Kalshi11.11x9¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
9.0%7¢9¢91¢93¢
PL
Pope Leo XIV
single venue9%
Kalshi10¢
—
Kalshi10.00x10¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
9.0%9¢10¢90¢91¢
JT
James Talarico
single venue7%
Kalshi7¢
—
Kalshi14.29x7¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
7.0%5¢7¢93¢95¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarketPolymarket

Smart Trade Router

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¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread2.7%
Platforms2
Candidates22
Leader

Zohran Mamdani

29.5% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: TIME's Person of the Year for 2026?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Taylor Swift is Time Person of the Year for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This will count towards the payout criterion: If multiple persons win, all persons that are listed are encompassed within the Payout Criterion. If, for example, the Person of the Year is “Joe Biden and Kamala Harris”, both “Joe Biden” and “Kamala Harris” strikes are encompassed within the Payout Criterion. The person must be explicitly named as the Person of the Year or pictured on the/a relevant cover if they are associated with the group/concept winning (the picture is only relevant for a natural human being winning). Some examples to illustrate this: “Jamal Khasogghi” would resolve to Yes in 2018, when “The Guardians” won, as he is also named and shown on a cover and falls within “The Guardians”. Similarly, “Bill Gates” would resolve to Yes in 2005. If Time uses language that does not specifically refer to a person or organization (examples being 2018’s “The Guardians of Truth” or 2017’s “The Silence Breakers”), Kalshi will resolve markets to the most simple meaning reasonable. In those cases, “Journalists” and “the Me Too movement” would resolve to Yes. This does NOT count towards the payout criterion: If there is no Person of the Year (and instead many variations thereof, e.g. Entertainer of the Year, Hero of the Year), that is not encompassed in the Payout Criterion. If “ChatGPT” was the Person of the Year, strikes of “AI” or “LLMs” would resolve to No, since even if they are conceptually linked, they are not synonymous (and thus are not explicitly named), and are not persons, so it would not matter if they were identified in the image. Or if “Sam Altman” was the Person of the Year, and the cover showed a person using ChatGPT on their computer, “ChatGPT” would not resolve to Yes because it is not a person.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

What criteria does TIME use to select the Person of the Year?

TIME's selection is based on the individual or group that has had the most influence on the events of the year. This includes factors such as cultural impact, political significance, and contributions to society.

When will the Person of the Year for 2026 be announced?

The announcement is typically made in December, with the official reveal often coinciding with the end of the calendar year. This timing allows for a reflection on the year's events.

How does public opinion affect the prediction market for this event?

Public opinion can sway the odds as it reflects the popularity and relevance of potential candidates. As discussions and media coverage evolve, the prediction market adjusts to these changing sentiments.

What does the TIME's Person of the Year for 2026 prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest TIME's Person of the Year for 2026 odds?

The latest available prices are Zohran Mamdani: 29.5¢ on Kalshi; Donald Trump: 11.0¢ on Kalshi; Dario Amodei: 9.0¢ on Kalshi; Pope Leo XIV: 9.0¢ on Kalshi. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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