Live prediction market odds for Top AI model in August. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Resolved 2026-08-31
This market resolved on 2026-08-31. claude-opus-5-max was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the event to determine the top AI model in August 2026.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the event to determine the top AI model in August 2026. The market resolves based on which AI model is recognized as the leading technology by the end of August, with developments in performance metrics and industry evaluations influencing the odds leading up to the date.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
claude-opus-5-maxWINNER | 99% | 100% |
claude-fable-5 | 1% | — |
claude-opus-4-6-thinking | 1% | — |
claude-opus-4-7 | 1% | — |
claude-opus-5-high | 1% | 0% |
claude-opus-4-6-high | — | 0% |
claude-opus-5-max
99.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf claude-opus-5-max is the top-ranked AI model on Aug 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.
The top AI model will be determined based on performance metrics and evaluations from industry experts. These assessments will be finalized by August 31, 2026.
Odds may fluctuate based on new developments in AI technology and announcements from companies. Performance benchmarks and competitive analyses will likely impact market sentiment.
The market will close on August 31, 2026, coinciding with the resolution of the event. Participants will need to place their bets before this date to be eligible.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
The last available prices are claude-opus-5-max: 99.0¢ on Kalshi, 99.9¢ on Polymarket; claude-fable-5: 1.0¢ on Kalshi; claude-opus-4-6-thinking: 1.0¢ on Kalshi; claude-opus-4-7: 1.0¢ on Kalshi. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
