Who will be Brazilian defense minister after the election?
Live prediction market odds for Who will be Brazilian defense minister after the election?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Listed Updated
Traders give Cinara Wagner Fredo about a 35.0% chance. José Múcio follows at 10.0%, Maria Elizabeth Rocha follows at 10.0%, and Márcio Elias Rosa follows at 6.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 4.0 percentage points.
Kalshi
PolymarketKalshiPolymarketOfficial settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf José Múcio Monteiro formally takes office as Minister of Defense as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Brazilian general election before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Only the first person to formally take office as Minister of Defense in the government formed after the 2026 Brazilian general election, when it takes office or within 30 days after its first ministers are appointed, counts. An incumbent who is reappointed to the post counts, and so does an incumbent who continues in it without reappointment and still holds it at the end of that window; later reshuffles, rotations and appointments do not. A minister appointed after the election but before the new presidential term begins on Jan 5, 2027 counts only if formally appointed again within that window. Nominations, coalition agreements and announcements do not count, nor do acting, caretaker or interim service or a head of government holding the portfolio only by default while it is unassigned. If no government is formed after the election before Jul 1, 2027, every market resolves No.
PolymarketThis market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Brazilian Minister of Defense (Ministro da Defesa) in the government of the President of Brazil whose term begins on January 5, 2027. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed to that government by the President of Brazil. An individual serving as Minister of Defense at the end of the previous term who is reappointed or retained in that position at the start of the new term will count as assuming office in that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Defense will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of Defense” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of Defense are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Minister of Defense assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Odds are influenced by the election results and the political affiliations of the candidates. Additionally, public statements and endorsements can shift market perceptions.
The market is scheduled to close on March 1, 2027. This deadline is when trading will cease, but the actual appointment may occur after this date.
The market resolves based on the official announcement of the Brazilian defense minister by the newly elected president. Only the confirmed appointment will settle the market.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Cinara Wagner Fredo: 35.0¢ on Kalshi; José Múcio: 8.0¢ on Kalshi, 12.0¢ on Polymarket; Maria Elizabeth Rocha: 10.0¢ on Kalshi; Márcio Elias Rosa: 6.0¢ on Kalshi. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
