US defaults before 2027?
Live prediction market odds for US defaults before 2027?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Listed Updated Expected to settle by
Best price · tap to trade
Traders give US defaults on debt by 2027 about a 1.1% chance. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 0.8 percentage points.
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the U.S. Department of the Treasury announces that the United States Federal Government failed to make a scheduled payment on a Treasury note, bond, or bill; or that one of the three major credit ratings agencies designate any United States debt in any form of default, before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Potential factors include political gridlock over debt ceiling negotiations, economic downturns, or unexpected increases in government spending. These scenarios could strain the federal budget and lead to a default.
A US default could lead to increased borrowing costs and reduced confidence in US financial stability. This may trigger volatility in global markets, affecting currencies, stocks, and commodities.
The US has never fully defaulted on its debt, but there have been instances of technical defaults, such as in 1979 due to administrative errors. These events have historically resulted in market turmoil and increased scrutiny of US fiscal policy.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are US defaults on debt by 2027: 1.5¢ on Kalshi, 0.7¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
