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Live prediction market odds for VA-02 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket and PredictIt.

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Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket / PredictIt

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VA-02 House winner?

Listed Jun 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 22, 2026 · Expected to settle by Jan 4, 2027

2026 Midterms hubNew

Every 2026 House seat beside the Senate and governor races, priced across every venue.
Open the hub

Best price · tap to trade

Elaine Luria (D)90¢1.11xKalshiJen Kiggans (R)10¢10.00xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Elaine Luria (D) about a 89.3% chance. Jen Kiggans (R) follows at 9.8%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, and PredictIt. The largest cross-platform price difference is 33.5 percentage points.

Traders give Elaine Luria (D) about a 89.3% chance. Jen Kiggans (R) follows at 9.8%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, and PredictIt. The largest cross-platform price difference is 33.5 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the VA-02 House race in the upcoming 2026 elections. This contest will play a crucial role in shaping the balance of power in Congress, as both parties vie for control in a competitive political landscape.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

4 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
Kalshi
Polymarket US
Polymarket
PredictIt
Best price
EL
Elaine Luria (D)
89%
Kalshi90¢
Polymarket US90¢
Polymarket90¢
PredictIt97¢
Kalshi1.11x90¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
89.5%89¢90¢10¢11¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
89.5%89¢90¢10¢11¢
PolymarketPolymarket
89.0%88¢90¢10¢12¢
PredictItPredictIt
97.0%70¢97¢3¢30¢
JK
Jen Kiggans (R)
10%
Kalshi10¢
Polymarket US10¢
Polymarket11¢
PredictIt43¢
Kalshi10.00x10¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
9.8%10¢10¢90¢91¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
9.5%9¢10¢90¢91¢
PolymarketPolymarket
10.0%9¢11¢89¢91¢
PredictItPredictIt
43.0%3¢43¢57¢97¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarketPredictItPredictIt

Candidate Spotlight

About Elaine Luria (D)

Elaine Luria is a former U.S. Representative for Virginia's 2nd Congressional District, having served from 2019 to 2023. Before her congressional tenure, she was a U.S. Navy Commander, retiring after 20 years of service. She is currently campaigning to reclaim her former congressional seat in the 2026 elections.

About Jen Kiggans (R)

Jen Kiggans is the U.S. Representative for Virginia's 2nd Congressional District, serving on the House Armed Services, Veterans’ Affairs, and Natural Resources Committees. She previously served three terms in the Virginia State Senate, where she championed legislation supporting military families and long-term care patients. As a Navy veteran and nurse practitioner, she brings a unique perspective to her legislative work.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread33.5%
Platforms4
Candidates2
Volume$2.4M
Leader

Elaine Luria (D)

89.3% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: VA-02 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for VA-2 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the VA-02 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the VA-02 House race?

Polling data, candidate popularity, and campaign funding are key factors that can sway the odds. Additionally, local issues and voter turnout will play a significant role in determining the outcome.

When is the VA-02 House election scheduled?

The VA-02 House election is scheduled for November 4, 2026. This date is part of the general election cycle, which includes various federal and state races.

How can prediction markets impact the VA-02 House race?

Prediction markets can provide insights into public sentiment and expectations regarding the race. Fluctuations in odds may influence campaign strategies and voter engagement as candidates respond to perceived strengths and weaknesses.

What does the VA-02 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, PredictIt in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest VA-02 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Elaine Luria (D): 89.5¢ on Kalshi, 89.0¢ on Polymarket, 97.0¢ on PredictIt, 89.5¢ on Polymarket US; Jen Kiggans (R): 9.8¢ on Kalshi, 10.0¢ on Polymarket, 43.0¢ on PredictIt, 9.5¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Kiggans Falls to 17% in VA-02 as Cook Rates Race 'Lean D'Cook's 'Lean D' call and Luria's rematch bid have driven Kiggans down 10 percentage points in three days, with Luria now trading near 83%.Oct 8, 2026
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Trader up $257K lifetime bought $1.1K of No at 88¢

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PolymarketPolymarket USWill the Republican Party win the VA-02 House seat?Trade on Polymarket US →