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Live prediction market odds for Variational FDV above one day after launch. Compare prices across Polymarket and Predict.fun.

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Polymarket / Predict.fun

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Variational FDV above one day after launch

Listed Sep 15, 2026 · Updated Oct 22, 2026

Best price · tap to trade

$100M98¢1.02xPolymarket$200M98¢1.02xPolymarket$300M93¢1.08xPolymarket
Compare all 10 outcomes across 2 venues

About This Market

Traders give $100M about a 98.0% chance. $200M follows at 96.2%, $300M follows at 92.8%, and $500M follows at 86.5%. Compare prices from Polymarket and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 0.2 percentage points.

Traders give $100M about a 98.0% chance. $200M follows at 96.2%, $300M follows at 92.8%, and $500M follows at 86.5%. Compare prices from Polymarket and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 0.2 percentage points.

Polymarket and Predictfun are tracking the event of Variational FDV exceeding one day after its launch. This market resolves based on whether the FDV surpasses a specific threshold within the first 24 hours of operation, with odds fluctuating based on early performance metrics and user engagement.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
PolymarketPolymarket
Predict.funPredict.fun
Best price
$
$100M
single venue98%
Polymarket98¢
—
Polymarket1.02x98¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
98.0%98¢98¢2¢2¢
$
$200M
single venue96%
Polymarket98¢
—
Polymarket1.02x98¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
96.2%94¢98¢2¢6¢
$
$300M
single venue93%
Polymarket93¢
—
Polymarket1.08x93¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
92.8%93¢93¢7¢7¢
$
$500M
single venue87%
Polymarket87¢
—
Polymarket1.15x87¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
86.5%86¢87¢13¢14¢
$
$800M
71%
Polymarket71¢
Predict.fun71¢
Polymarket1.41x71¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
70.5%70¢71¢29¢30¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
70.7%70¢71¢29¢30¢
PolymarketPolymarketPredict.funPredict.fun

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic Oracle
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread0.2%
Platforms2
Candidates10
Volume$1.8M
Leader

$100M

98.0% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Variational FDV above one day after launch

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Polymarket and Predict.fun.

PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic Oracle
Predict.funPredict.fun
Primary Rule

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. The token must be fungible, meaning all units of the token are identical and interchangeable. Examples of qualifying fungible token standards include: - ERC-20 or compatible/derivative standards on any EVM-compatible chain - SPL / SPL Token-2022 standard on Solana - Native blockchain tokens (e.g., a project's own Layer 1 chain coin) - Equivalent fungible token standards on other blockchains Non-fungible tokens such as ERC-1155 tokens will not qualify for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Variational, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Frequently Asked Questions

What does FDV stand for in this context?

FDV stands for Fully Diluted Valuation, which is a metric used to assess the potential market value of a cryptocurrency or token. It calculates the total value of a project if all tokens were in circulation.

When does this event resolve?

This event resolves on January 1, 2028, based on the FDV performance within the first day of the launch. The specific threshold for resolution is determined by the market's criteria.

What factors influence the odds for this event?

Odds for this event are influenced by early user engagement, trading volume, and overall market sentiment towards the new launch. Additionally, any announcements or developments related to the project can impact the odds significantly.

What does the Variational FDV above one day after launch prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Polymarket, Predict.fun in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Variational FDV above one day after launch odds?

The latest available prices are $100M: 98.0¢ on Polymarket; $200M: 96.2¢ on Polymarket; $300M: 92.8¢ on Polymarket; $500M: 86.5¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Resolved Oct 22

Final odds
Smart Money Lean · Last 24h
Full Feed

Smart money is heavily buying $1B

Smart Money Consensus$2.2K
$2.2K$1B
Smart Traders Split1
1$1B
PolymarketBuy Yes at 58¢

$10K+ lifetime-profit wallets · 24h net flow

$300MLeans No $1.6K

Sold $1.6K of Yes

$500MLeans No $277

Sold $277 of Yes

$1BLeans Yes $2.2K

Bought $2.2K of Yes

Net flow from wallets with $10K+ lifetime profit. Buying No or selling Yes counts toward No.