Live prediction market odds for What will Kevin Warsh say during his Jackson Hole remarks?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Resolved 2026-08-28
This market resolved on 2026-08-28. CapEx / Capital Expenditure was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking what Kevin Warsh will say during his remarks at Jackson Hole.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking what Kevin Warsh will say during his remarks at Jackson Hole. His statements could influence market sentiment and economic policy discussions, particularly regarding productivity and financial stability.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
CapEx / Capital ExpenditureWINNER | — | 100% |
Challenge | — | 100% |
AI / Artificial Intelligence 3+ times | 99% | 99% |
2008 / Financial Crisis | 99% | 99% |
Bank / Asset 10+ times | — | 99% |
Productivity | 99% | 95% |
Good Morning | — | 92% |
Regime | — | 91% |
Integrity | — | 8% |
Stable 5+ times | — | 8% |
Prediction / Predictive | — | 3% |
Afford / Affordable / Affordability | 1% | — |
Event does not qualify | 1% | — |
Footprint | 1% | — |
Framework | — | 1% |
Good Day | 1% | 1% |
Independent / Independence | 1% | 1% |
Iran / Middle East | 1% | — |
Oil | 1% | — |
Powell | 1% | — |
Rate Cut / Cut Rate | 1% | — |
Recession | 1% | — |
Stablecoin | 1% | — |
Stock Market | 1% | — |
Tariff | 1% | — |
Too Late | — | 1% |
Volcker | 1% | — |
Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency | 1% | 0% |
Gold | 1% | 0% |
Trump | 1% | 0% |
-No Qualifying Event- | — | 0% |
Task Force 5+ times | — | 0% |
CapEx / Capital Expenditure
99.9% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Kevin Warsh says AI / Artificial Intelligence as part of remarks at the 2026 Economic Policy Symposium , then the market resolves to Yes.
Video of the remarks at the 2026 Economic Policy Symposium will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the remarks at the 2026 Economic Policy Symposium will be used. Payout Criterion: The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included. Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included. For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event. The event must be opened to the press for a live televised or streamed event to qualify. Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address will not count. Please see full rules for more details. Event does not qualify: If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No. The event will resolve based on Kevin Warsh speaking in an official capacity. Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify — Kevin Warsh must be speaking in an official capacity for the Contract to resolve Yes (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, or unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic, do not qualify). Postponement: If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.
Kevin Warsh's remarks are closely watched as they can signal shifts in economic policy. His insights may impact investor confidence and market trends.
Prediction markets allow participants to bet on the outcomes of specific events, reflecting collective expectations. Prices fluctuate based on new information and sentiment leading up to the event.
Economic data releases, current market conditions, and recent financial developments may shape Warsh's comments. Analysts also consider the broader economic context and potential challenges facing policymakers.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
The last available prices are CapEx / Capital Expenditure: 99.9¢ on Polymarket; Challenge: 99.9¢ on Polymarket; AI / Artificial Intelligence 3+ times: 99.0¢ on Kalshi, 99.1¢ on Polymarket; 2008 / Financial Crisis: 99.0¢ on Kalshi, 99.0¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
Prediction Market Track Record
Prediction Market Track Record
