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Live prediction market odds for Which bank will lead OpenAI's IPO?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

Kalshi

Kalshi

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Which bank will lead OpenAI's IPO?

2027-12-31

Best price · tap to trade

Goldman Sachs78¢1.28xKalshiMorgan Stanley25¢4.00xKalshiJPMorgan4¢25.00xKalshi
Compare all 7 outcomes across 2 venues

About This Market

Traders give Goldman Sachs about a 76.3% chance. Morgan Stanley follows at 20.8%, JPMorgan follows at 2.1%, and Citigroup follows at 0.9%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.8 percentage points.

Traders give Goldman Sachs about a 76.3% chance. Morgan Stanley follows at 20.8%, JPMorgan follows at 2.1%, and Citigroup follows at 0.9%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.8 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking which bank will lead OpenAI's IPO, set for late 2027. The outcome will influence investment strategies and market perceptions surrounding the tech giant's public debut, impacting both the financial sector and investor sentiment.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
GS
Goldman Sachs
76%
Kalshi78¢
Polymarket78¢
Kalshi1.28x78¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
75.0%74¢78¢22¢26¢
PolymarketPolymarket
77.5%77¢78¢22¢23¢
MS
Morgan Stanley
21%
Kalshi25¢
Polymarket20¢
Kalshi4.00x25¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
22.0%19¢25¢75¢81¢
PolymarketPolymarket
19.5%19¢20¢80¢81¢
J
JPMorgan
4%
Kalshi4¢
—
Kalshi25.00x4¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
4.0%1¢4¢96¢99¢
PolymarketPolymarket
—0¢—100¢100¢
C
Citigroup
2%
Kalshi3¢
—
Kalshi33.33x3¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
1.5%0¢3¢97¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
—0¢—100¢100¢
B
Barclays
single venue
—
—
Polymarket333.33x0¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
—0¢—100¢100¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread3.8%
Platforms2
Candidates7
Leader

Goldman Sachs

76.3% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Which bank will lead OpenAI's IPO?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Morgan Stanley serves as lead-left underwriter on OpenAI's initial public offering in the United States before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

If two or more underwriters are presented on the cover of the final prospectus as jointly occupying the lead-left position, such that no single underwriter is uppermost-and-leftmost (for example, two names sharing equal top billing), then each such underwriter's outcome resolves to $1/(the number of tied underwriters), rounded down, for “Yes”, and “No” will be paid $1 minus the Yes value.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence which bank will lead OpenAI's IPO?

Factors include the bank's reputation, previous IPO experience, and relationships with OpenAI. Market conditions and investor interest also play a crucial role.

Why is OpenAI's IPO significant for the financial sector?

OpenAI's IPO represents a major event in the tech industry, potentially setting benchmarks for future tech IPOs. It could attract substantial investment and reshape market dynamics.

How do prediction markets reflect the likelihood of different banks leading the IPO?

Prediction markets aggregate collective insights and expectations from investors about which bank may lead the IPO. Shifts in odds can indicate changing perceptions based on news, analysis, or market trends.

What does the Which bank will lead OpenAI's IPO prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Which bank will lead OpenAI's IPO odds?

The latest available prices are Goldman Sachs: 75.0¢ on Kalshi, 77.5¢ on Polymarket; Morgan Stanley: 22.0¢ on Kalshi, 19.5¢ on Polymarket; JPMorgan: 4.0¢ on Kalshi, 0.3¢ on Polymarket; Citigroup: 1.5¢ on Kalshi, 0.3¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Morgan Stanley Hits 23% in OpenAI IPO Market as Timing Risk GrowsMorgan Stanley gained 8 percentage points in three days. Its rise tracks IPO delay risk, not a real contest for Goldman's left-lead position.Sep 20, 2026Goldman Sachs Returns to 82% in OpenAI IPO Market as Senate Probe CloudsGoldman rebounds 8 points from a 74% low in three days, matching its August peak, even as a Senate data-breach investigation threatens the roadshow schedule.Sep 10, 2026Goldman Sachs Hits 80% to Lead OpenAI's IPO After SpaceX WinGoldman jumped 8 points in 3 days after locking lead-left on SpaceX while co-underwriting OpenAI's confidential S-1, leaving Morgan Stanley at roughly 15%.Sep 8, 2026Goldman Sachs Reaches 70% Odds to Lead OpenAI IPO After S-1 SyndicateA 16-point surge in three days reflects co-lead confirmation on OpenAI's confidential S-1 alongside Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan, not outright exclusivity.Aug 31, 2026