Which bank will lead OpenAI's IPO?
Live prediction market odds for Which bank will lead OpenAI's IPO?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Listed Updated Expected to settle by
Traders give Goldman Sachs about a 68.5% chance. Morgan Stanley follows at 41.5%, Bank of America follows at 1.1%, and Citigroup follows at 0.6%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 27.0 percentage points.
Kalshi
PolymarketKalshiPolymarketBest price among US-regulated venues.
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Morgan Stanley serves as lead-left underwriter on OpenAI's initial public offering in the United States before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
If two or more underwriters are presented on the cover of the final prospectus as jointly occupying the lead-left position, such that no single underwriter is uppermost-and-leftmost (for example, two names sharing equal top billing), then each such underwriter's outcome resolves to $1/(the number of tied underwriters), rounded down, for “Yes”, and “No” will be paid $1 minus the Yes value.
Factors include the bank's reputation, previous IPO experience, and relationships with OpenAI. Market conditions and investor interest also play a crucial role.
OpenAI's IPO represents a major event in the tech industry, potentially setting benchmarks for future tech IPOs. It could attract substantial investment and reshape market dynamics.
Prediction markets aggregate collective insights and expectations from investors about which bank may lead the IPO. Shifts in odds can indicate changing perceptions based on news, analysis, or market trends.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Goldman Sachs: 65.0¢ on Kalshi, 72.0¢ on Polymarket; Morgan Stanley: 28.0¢ on Kalshi, 55.0¢ on Polymarket; Bank of America: 1.1¢ on Polymarket; Citigroup: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 0.3¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
