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Live prediction market odds for Which companies will the US take a stake in before 2027?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

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Which companies will the US take a stake in before 2027?

2026-12-31

Best price · tap to trade

Anduril23¢4.35xKalshiTSMC18¢5.56xKalshiIonQ14¢7.14xKalshi
Compare all 18 outcomes across 2 venues

About This Market

Traders give Anduril about a 21.3% chance. TSMC follows at 16.5%, IonQ follows at 14.8%, and Eli Lilly follows at 13.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 8.0 percentage points.

Traders give Anduril about a 21.3% chance. TSMC follows at 16.5%, IonQ follows at 14.8%, and Eli Lilly follows at 13.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 8.0 percentage points.

Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking which companies the US will take a stake in before 2027. This event is crucial as it reflects the government's strategic investments in key industries, impacting economic growth and technological advancements.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
A
Anduril
21%
Kalshi23¢
Polymarket22¢
Kalshi4.35x23¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
21.0%21¢23¢77¢79¢
PolymarketPolymarket
21.5%21¢22¢78¢79¢
T
TSMC
17%
Kalshi18¢
Polymarket17¢
Kalshi5.56x18¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
17.0%14¢18¢82¢86¢
PolymarketPolymarket
16.0%15¢17¢83¢85¢
I
IonQ
15%
Kalshi14¢
Polymarket18¢
Kalshi7.14x14¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
14.0%10¢14¢86¢90¢
PolymarketPolymarket
15.5%13¢18¢82¢87¢
EL
Eli Lilly
13%
Kalshi17¢
Polymarket10¢
Kalshi5.88x17¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
17.0%11¢17¢83¢89¢
PolymarketPolymarket
9.0%8¢10¢90¢92¢
O
OpenAIARB
13%
Kalshi12¢
Polymarket18¢
Kalshi8.33x12¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
11.0%10¢12¢88¢90¢
PolymarketPolymarket
15.0%14¢18¢82¢86¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarketPolymarket

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
ABCAxiosBloomberg NewsCBSCNBCCNNFox NewsMSNBCNBCPoliticoReutersSemaforthe Associated PressThe Financial TimesThe InformationThe New York TimesThe Wall Street JournalThe Washington Post
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread8.0%
Platforms2
Candidates18
Leader

Anduril

21.3% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Which companies will the US take a stake in before 2027?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If any part of the United States federal government has taken a stake of Boeing before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

Taking a stake means acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, or equivalent ownership interests. This includes indirect ownership through wholly controlled investment vehicles and convertible rights treated as equity. Pre-existing stakes count toward the threshold. Ownership is aggregated across all share classes and listings. Crossing the threshold at any point satisfies the criterion regardless of subsequent changes. Non-equity instruments like bonds or loans don't qualify. Stakes by sovereign wealth funds or state-owned enterprises attributed to the body count. The value can be expressed as percentage ownership, monetary value, or share count, with percentage being the default unless specified.

Resolution Oracles
ABCAxiosBloomberg NewsCBSCNBCCNNFox NewsMSNBCNBCPoliticoReutersSemaforthe Associated PressThe Financial TimesThe InformationThe New York TimesThe Wall Street JournalThe Washington Post
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. federal government takes a stake in the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Takes a stake refers to the U.S. federal government acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, convertible rights treated as equity, or equivalent ownership interests in the listed company or of a legal vehicle that primarily owns the listed company. Stakes acquired through independent entities entirely controlled or owned by the U.S. federal government (e.g. a sovereign wealth fund, state-owned enterprise, etc.) will count. Non-equity financial instruments or stakes acquired by private persons or entities not owned or controlled by the US federal government will not count; acquisitions by by states, pensions, index or mutual funds, or consortia will not qualify. An official US federal government announcement of a completed qualifying acquisition, or of a binding agreement to complete a qualifying acquisition, within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”. Speculation, suggestions, plans, or other announcements which do not announce a completed acquisition or a binding acquisition agreement, however, will not count. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the US government's decision to take stakes in companies?

Factors include national security concerns, economic stability, and the promotion of technological innovation. Government investments can also be driven by the need to support emerging industries.

How do prediction markets determine the likelihood of the US investing in specific companies?

Prediction markets aggregate the opinions of participants who buy and sell shares based on their expectations of future events. Market prices reflect collective insights and analysis of political and economic trends.

What are the potential impacts of US investments in companies?

Investments can lead to increased funding for innovation and job creation within targeted sectors. Additionally, these stakes may influence market competition and international relations.

What does the Which companies will the US take a stake in before 2027 prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Which companies will the US take a stake in before 2027 odds?

The latest available prices are Anduril: 21.0¢ on Kalshi, 21.5¢ on Polymarket; TSMC: 17.0¢ on Kalshi, 16.0¢ on Polymarket; IonQ: 14.0¢ on Kalshi, 15.5¢ on Polymarket; Eli Lilly: 17.0¢ on Kalshi, 9.0¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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