Which companies will the US take a stake in before 2027?
Live prediction market odds for Which companies will the US take a stake in before 2027?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Compare all 19 outcomes across 2 venuesTraders give OpenAI about a 8.8% chance. Boeing follows at 7.8%, Anthropic follows at 7.4%, and Palantir follows at 7.2%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 4.8 percentage points.
Kalshi
PolymarketKalshiPolymarketBest price among US-regulated venues.
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf any part of the United States federal government has taken a stake of Boeing before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Taking a stake means acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, or equivalent ownership interests. This includes indirect ownership through wholly controlled investment vehicles and convertible rights treated as equity. Pre-existing stakes count toward the threshold. Ownership is aggregated across all share classes and listings. Crossing the threshold at any point satisfies the criterion regardless of subsequent changes. Non-equity instruments like bonds or loans don't qualify. Stakes by sovereign wealth funds or state-owned enterprises attributed to the body count. The value can be expressed as percentage ownership, monetary value, or share count, with percentage being the default unless specified.
PolymarketThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. federal government takes a stake in the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Takes a stake refers to the U.S. federal government acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, convertible rights treated as equity, or equivalent ownership interests in the listed company or of a legal vehicle that primarily owns the listed company. Stakes acquired through independent entities entirely controlled or owned by the U.S. federal government (e.g. a sovereign wealth fund, state-owned enterprise, etc.) will count. Non-equity financial instruments or stakes acquired by private persons or entities not owned or controlled by the US federal government will not count; acquisitions by by states, pensions, index or mutual funds, or consortia will not qualify. An official US federal government announcement of a completed qualifying acquisition, or of a binding agreement to complete a qualifying acquisition, within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”. Speculation, suggestions, plans, or other announcements which do not announce a completed acquisition or a binding acquisition agreement, however, will not count. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Factors include national security concerns, economic stability, and the promotion of technological innovation. Government investments can also be driven by the need to support emerging industries.
Prediction markets aggregate the opinions of participants who buy and sell shares based on their expectations of future events. Market prices reflect collective insights and analysis of political and economic trends.
Investments can lead to increased funding for innovation and job creation within targeted sectors. Additionally, these stakes may influence market competition and international relations.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are OpenAI: 8.0¢ on Kalshi, 9.5¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
