Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Live prediction market odds for Which company has best AI model end of 2026?. Compare prices across Polymarket and Predict.fun.
Listed Updated
Best price · tap to trade
Compare all 15 outcomes across 2 venuesTraders give Google about a 75.1% chance. Anthropic follows at 18.7%, Z.ai follows at 5.0%, and Moonshot follows at 4.5%. Compare prices from Polymarket and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 9.8 percentage points.
Polymarket
Predict.funPolymarketPredict.funOfficial settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Predict.fun.
Predict.funThis market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Polymarket, Predict.fun in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Google: 75.0¢ on Polymarket, 75.3¢ on Predict.fun; Anthropic: 18.5¢ on Polymarket, 18.9¢ on Predict.fun; Z.ai: 0.2¢ on Polymarket, 9.9¢ on Predict.fun; Moonshot: 0.2¢ on Polymarket, 8.9¢ on Predict.fun. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
The largest price difference shown across venues is 9.8 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.
For example, Google at 75.1¢ implies about a 75.1% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading.
Smart money is buying Google
Buy Yes at 76¢Wallets with $10K+ lifetime profit · last 24h
Smart money is buying Google
Buy Yes at 76¢Wallets with $10K+ lifetime profit · last 24h
