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Live prediction market odds for Which company has best AI model end of 2026?. Compare prices across Polymarket and Predict.fun.

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Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

2026-12-31

Best price · tap to trade

Anthropic76¢1.32xPolymarketGoogle11¢9.09xPolymarketOpenAI9¢11.11xPolymarket
Compare all 15 outcomes across 2 venues

About This Market

Traders give Anthropic about a 75.8% chance. Google follows at 10.3%, OpenAI follows at 8.9%, and xAI follows at 3.1%. Compare prices from Polymarket and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.8 percentage points.

Traders give Anthropic about a 75.8% chance. Google follows at 10.3%, OpenAI follows at 8.9%, and xAI follows at 3.1%. Compare prices from Polymarket and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.8 percentage points.

Predict.fun + Polymarket pair (auto-ingested via condition_id cross-ref)

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
PolymarketPolymarket
Predict.funPredict.fun
Best price
A
Anthropic
76%
Polymarket76¢
Predict.fun78¢
Polymarket1.32x76¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
76.0%75¢76¢24¢25¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
75.5%73¢78¢22¢27¢
G
Google
10%
Polymarket11¢
Predict.fun12¢
Polymarket9.09x11¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
10.0%10¢11¢89¢90¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
10.5%9¢12¢88¢91¢
O
OpenAI
9%
Polymarket9¢
Predict.fun12¢
Polymarket11.11x9¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
8.0%8¢9¢91¢92¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
9.8%8¢12¢88¢92¢
X
xAI
3%
Polymarket3¢
Predict.fun5¢
Polymarket30.30x3¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
2.5%3¢3¢97¢98¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
3.7%2¢5¢95¢98¢
M
Meta
2%
Polymarket2¢
Predict.fun5¢
Polymarket55.56x2¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
1.7%2¢2¢98¢98¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
3.0%1¢5¢95¢99¢
PolymarketPolymarketPredict.funPredict.fun

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread1.8%
Platforms2
Candidates15
Leader

Anthropic

75.8% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Predict.fun.

Predict.funPredict.fun
Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the Which company has best AI model end of 2026 prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Polymarket, Predict.fun in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Which company has best AI model end of 2026 odds?

The latest available prices are Anthropic: 76.0¢ on Polymarket, 75.5¢ on Predict.fun; Google: 10.0¢ on Polymarket, 10.5¢ on Predict.fun; OpenAI: 8.0¢ on Polymarket, 9.8¢ on Predict.fun; xAI: 2.5¢ on Polymarket, 3.7¢ on Predict.fun. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Why do Which company has best AI model end of 2026 odds vary across prediction markets?

The largest price difference shown across venues is 1.8 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.

How do Which company has best AI model end of 2026 prediction market payouts work?

For example, Anthropic at 75.8¢ implies about a 75.8% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Resolved Sep 26

Final odds
Smart Money Positioning (24 hours)
Full Feed

Smart money is heavily buying Anthropic

Smart Money Consensus$914
$914Yes
Smart Traders Split1
1Yes
PolymarketBuy Yes at 76¢

$10K+ lifetime-profit wallets · 24h net flow

Anthropic
Yes$914 · 1 whale
Google
No$360 · 4 whales
OpenAI
No$824 · 5 whales

$10K+ lifetime-profit wallets · 24h net flow