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Live prediction market odds for Who will be UFC Flyweight champion at the end of 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

Kalshi

Kalshi

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket

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Who will be UFC Flyweight champion at the end of 2026?

2026-12-31

Best price · tap to trade

Joshua Van93¢1.08xKalshiManel Kape10¢10.00xKalshiBrandon Moreno1¢100.00xKalshi
Compare all 7 outcomes across 2 venues

About This Market

Traders give Joshua Van about a 92.5% chance. Manel Kape follows at 6.0%, Brandon Moreno follows at 1.1%, and Alexandre Pantoja follows at 0.6%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.1 percentage points.

Traders give Joshua Van about a 92.5% chance. Manel Kape follows at 6.0%, Brandon Moreno follows at 1.1%, and Alexandre Pantoja follows at 0.6%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.1 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking who will hold the UFC Flyweight championship at the end of 2026. The outcome will be influenced by fighter performances, injuries, and potential title fights leading up to the date.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
JV
Joshua Van
92%
Kalshi93¢
Polymarket92¢
Kalshi1.08x93¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
93.0%91¢93¢7¢9¢
PolymarketPolymarket
91.9%92¢92¢8¢8¢
MK
Manel Kape
6%
Kalshi10¢
Polymarket5¢
Kalshi10.00x10¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
6.5%3¢10¢90¢97¢
PolymarketPolymarket
5.4%2¢5¢95¢98¢
BM
Brandon Moreno
1%
Kalshi1¢
Polymarket1¢
Kalshi100.00x1¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
1.0%0¢1¢99¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
—0¢1¢99¢100¢
AP
Alexandre Pantoja
1%
Kalshi1¢
—
Kalshi100.00x1¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
1.0%0¢1¢99¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
—0¢—100¢100¢
AA
Amir Albazi
single venue1%
Kalshi1¢
—
Kalshi100.00x1¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
1.0%0¢1¢99¢100¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Joshua Van

Joshua Van is the current UFC Flyweight Champion, holding a professional MMA record of 16 wins and 2 losses. He secured the title on December 6, 2025, by defeating Alexandre Pantoja via first-round TKO at UFC 323. Van is scheduled to defend his title against Tatsuro Taira at UFC 327 on April 11, 2026.

About Manel Kape

Manel Kape is a UFC flyweight fighter competing out of Phuket, Thailand. He previously held the RIZIN bantamweight championship before joining the UFC in 2020. Kape is a leading contender for the UFC Flyweight Championship, having secured multiple knockout victories in recent bouts.

About Alexandre Pantoja

Alexandre Pantoja is a Brazilian mixed martial artist competing in the UFC's flyweight division. He became the UFC Flyweight Champion in July 2023 by defeating Brandon Moreno at UFC 290. Pantoja is relevant to this prediction market as he was the reigning flyweight champion until his title was lost due to an injury in December 2025.

About Tatsuro Taira

Tatsuro Taira is a Japanese professional mixed martial artist competing in the UFC's Flyweight division. He holds an 18-1 record, with notable victories over Brandon Moreno and HyunSung Park. Taira is scheduled to challenge Joshua Van for the UFC Flyweight Championship on April 11, 2026, at UFC 327.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
ESPN
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic Oracleufc.com
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread1.1%
Platforms2
Candidates7
Leader

Joshua Van

92.5% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Who will be UFC Flyweight champion at the end of 2026?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Joshua Van holds the UFC Flyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
ESPN
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Flyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic Oracleufc.com

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the UFC Flyweight championship?

Fighter performance in matches, injury status, and upcoming title fights are key factors that shape the odds. Additionally, public sentiment and betting trends can also impact market prices.

How often do the odds change for this championship market?

Odds can fluctuate frequently based on recent fight outcomes, news about fighters, and changes in public interest. Major events, such as title defenses or significant match announcements, typically trigger more substantial shifts.

What is the significance of the UFC Flyweight championship?

The UFC Flyweight championship represents the pinnacle of achievement in the 125-pound weight class, showcasing elite talent. Holding the title can significantly impact a fighter's career, including sponsorship opportunities and legacy.

Who will be UFC Flyweight champion at the end of 2026: what does this prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

Who will be UFC Flyweight champion at the end of 2026: what are the current odds?

The latest available prices are Joshua Van: 93.0¢ on Kalshi, 91.9¢ on Polymarket; Manel Kape: 6.5¢ on Kalshi, 5.4¢ on Polymarket; Brandon Moreno: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 1.2¢ on Polymarket; Alexandre Pantoja: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 0.2¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Final odds

Prediction Market Track Record

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua VanWONPre-event: 57%

Prediction Market Track Record

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs HoriguchiWONPre-event: 59%

Prediction Market Track Record

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua VanLOSTPre-event: 43%

Historical Track Record

Scroll to view past markets

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van

Resolved

2026-09-20

LOSTAlexandre Pantoja
Pre-event: 43%

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs Horiguchi

Resolved

2026-06-21

WONManel Kape
Pre-event: 59%

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Van Beats Pantoja on Scorecards, Flyweight Title Odds Hit 96%A unanimous decision at UFC 331 erased the injury-stoppage asterisk from Van's first title win. Kalshi now prices him at 96%, Polymarket at 97%.Sep 22, 2026Van Beats Pantoja in Rematch, Flyweight Title Odds Rise to 86%Van's dominant UFC 331 win (49-46, 49-47, 50-45) pushed his year-end title probability from 54% to 86%, with Kalshi at 80% and Polymarket at 93%.Sep 20, 2026Pantoja Enters UFC 331 as 37% Underdog to Reclaim Flyweight BeltPantoja's implied probability fell 12 points in three days, driven by a nine-month injury layoff and Van's successful title defense in May.Sep 18, 2026Van Enters Pantoja Rematch at UFC 331 as 58% Favorite to Keep FlyweightVan jumped 8 points in 3 days after defending against Taira, but a healthy Pantoja on Saturday is the sharpest repricing risk of 2026.Sep 16, 2026