Who will release a new song this year?
Live prediction market odds for Who will release a new song this year?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Listed Updated Expected to settle by
Best price · tap to trade
Compare all 17 outcomes across 2 venuesTraders give Zara Larsson about a 94.0% chance. The Weeknd follows at 92.5%, Dua Lipa follows at 91.0%, and Bad Bunny follows at 90.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.6 percentage points.
Kalshi
PolymarketKalshiPolymarketOfficial settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Nicki Minaj releases a new song in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves based on public availability on Spotify under the artist's official discography. For markets specifying "new song" or "new music," the release must be an original composition first released during the time period. Re-recordings (unless in a new language), remasters, radio edits, clean/explicit versions of existing tracks, remixes, live versions, acoustic versions, instrumentals, demos, alternative takes, or reproductions of songs already on Spotify do not qualify as "new." Songs released in a new language count as new releases. Cosmetic changes like title edits, artwork updates, or re-uploads of the same audio do not constitute new releases. If a release is withdrawn after appearing on Spotify, it still qualifies if verifiably public at any point during the time period. The effective release time is the first verified moment of public availability, regardless of displayed metadata dates. Region-limited or staggered releases qualify once publicly available in any official Spotify market. If the artist is deceased, posthumous releases attributed to them as primary or featured performer still qualify.
The market resolves when an artist officially releases a new song within the specified timeframe. Any song released after the trading close will not count.
Yes, if they release additional songs before the trading close, they can still impact the market. The focus is on new releases, not past ones.
If no qualifying song is released by any artist before the trading close, the market will resolve based on that outcome. In such a case, all positions would lose.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Zara Larsson: 94.0¢ on Kalshi; The Weeknd: 92.5¢ on Kalshi; Dua Lipa: 91.0¢ on Kalshi; Bad Bunny: 90.0¢ on Kalshi. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
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