Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?
Live prediction market odds for Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?. Compare prices across .
Archived, venue decision pending Listed Updated
This event is archived while we await a venue decision. The chart below shows historical odds.
Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the race for the 2026 Fields Medal.
Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the race for the 2026 Fields Medal. This prestigious award in mathematics highlights groundbreaking research and achievements, influencing the careers of top mathematicians and the future of the field.
Odds for questions with unconfirmed results.
| Question | Result |
|---|---|
Hong Wang | Yes |
Jacob Tsimerman | Yes |
John Pardon | Yes |
Yu Deng | Yes |
Vesselin Dimitrov | No result |
Aleksandr Logunov | No |
Alexander Efimov | No |
Jack Thorne | No |
Julian Sahasrabudhe | No |
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Yu Deng wins the Fields Medal in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThe Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
The Fields Medal is awarded every four years to mathematicians under 40 in recognition of outstanding achievements. It is often regarded as the highest honor in mathematics.
The 2026 Fields Medal will recognize contributions made during a pivotal period in mathematics, potentially influencing future research directions. The award can significantly enhance the recipient's visibility and career opportunities.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of future events, with prices reflecting the perceived probabilities of various outcomes. These markets aggregate diverse opinions, providing insights into likely winners based on current trends and expert analysis.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Venue prices are not currently available on this page. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
No historical prices are available on this page. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
| No |
Will Sawin | No |
