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Live prediction market odds for Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?. Compare prices across Polymarket and Opinion and Predict.fun.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Polymarket / Opinion / Predict.fun

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Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?

2026-12-31

Best price · tap to trade

169¢1.45xPolymarket231¢3.23xPredict.fun31¢100.00xPolymarket
Compare all 6 outcomes across 3 venues

About This Market

Traders give 1 about a 62.4% chance. 2 follows at 32.0%, 3 follows at 0.2%, and 4 follows at 0.2%. Compare prices from Polymarket, Opinion, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 10.5 percentage points.

Traders give 1 about a 62.4% chance. 2 follows at 32.0%, 3 follows at 0.2%, and 4 follows at 0.2%. Compare prices from Polymarket, Opinion, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 10.5 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking whether 2026 will be the hottest year ever recorded. This event is significant as it reflects ongoing climate change trends and the impact of human activity on global temperatures.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
PolymarketPolymarket
OpinionOpinion
Predict.funPredict.fun
Best price
1
1
62%
Polymarket69¢
Opinion100¢
Predict.fun73¢
Polymarket1.45x69¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
68.0%65¢69¢31¢35¢
OpinionOpinion
57.5%15¢100¢0¢85¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
61.9%51¢73¢27¢49¢
2
2ARB
32%
Polymarket34¢
—
Predict.fun31¢
Predict.fun3.23x31¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
33.5%33¢34¢66¢67¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
30.5%30¢31¢69¢70¢
3
3
0%
Polymarket1¢
—
Predict.fun2¢
Polymarket111.11x1¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
0.3%0¢1¢99¢100¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
0.1%0¢2¢98¢100¢
4
4
—
—
Predict.fun99¢
Polymarket250.00x0¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
—0¢—100¢100¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
0.1%0¢99¢1¢100¢
5
5
single venue
—
—
—
Polymarket500.00x0¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
—0¢—100¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarketOpinionOpinionPredict.funPredict.fun

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

OpinionOpinion
Opinion AIdata.giss.nasa.gov
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic Oracledata.giss.nasa.govConsensus of Sources
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread10.5%
Platforms3
Candidates6
Leader

1

62.4% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Opinion and Polymarket and Predict.fun.

OpinionOpinion
Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution Oracles
Opinion AIdata.giss.nasa.gov
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic Oracledata.giss.nasa.govConsensus of Sources
Predict.funPredict.fun
Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors could influence whether 2026 becomes the hottest year?

Factors include greenhouse gas emissions, natural climate variability, and significant weather events. Monitoring global temperature trends and climate policies will also play a role.

How do prediction markets assess the likelihood of 2026 being the hottest year?

Prediction markets use real-time data and participant insights to gauge probabilities. Changes in climate reports and scientific findings can shift market sentiment.

What historical context is relevant to this prediction?

The years 2016 and 2020 are among the hottest on record, providing a benchmark for future temperatures. Ongoing climate change discussions and extreme weather events add urgency to this prediction.

Will 2026 be the hottest year ever: what does this prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Polymarket, Opinion, Predict.fun in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

Will 2026 be the hottest year ever: what are the current odds?

The latest available prices are 1: 68.0¢ on Polymarket, 57.5¢ on Opinion, 61.9¢ on Predict.fun; 2: 33.5¢ on Polymarket, 30.5¢ on Predict.fun; 3: 0.3¢ on Polymarket, 0.1¢ on Predict.fun; 4: 0.2¢ on Polymarket, 0.1¢ on Predict.fun. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Final odds

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

2026 on Track to Beat Heat Record as Odds Hit 52%A 9pp move in 72 hours follows 148+ broken daily records in July. France logged 2,000+ excess deaths across three June heatwaves as El Niño intensifies.Aug 3, 2026
Smart Money Positioning (24 hours)
Full Feed

Smart money is buying 1

Smart Money Consensus$2.1K
$1.3KYes$859No
Smart Traders Split2
1Yes1No
PolymarketBuy Yes at 69¢

$10K+ lifetime-profit wallets · 24h net flow

1
Yes$1.3K · 1 whale
No$859 · 1 whale
2
No$302 · 3 whales
3
No$1.3K · 5 whales

$10K+ lifetime-profit wallets · 24h net flow