Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
Live prediction market odds for Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?. Compare prices across Polymarket and Opinion and Predict.fun.
Listed Updated
Traders give 1 about a 95.3% chance. 2 follows at 6.0%, 5 follows at 1.1%, and 3 follows at 0.2%. Compare prices from Polymarket, Opinion, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 7.3 percentage points.
Polymarket
Opinion
Predict.funPolymarketOpinionPredict.funOfficial settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Opinion and Polymarket and Predict.fun.
OpinionThis market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Predict.funThis market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Factors include greenhouse gas emissions, natural climate variability, and significant weather events. Monitoring global temperature trends and climate policies will also play a role.
Prediction markets use real-time data and participant insights to gauge probabilities. Changes in climate reports and scientific findings can shift market sentiment.
The years 2016 and 2020 are among the hottest on record, providing a benchmark for future temperatures. Ongoing climate change discussions and extreme weather events add urgency to this prediction.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Polymarket, Opinion, Predict.fun in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are 1: 92.5¢ on Polymarket, 99.8¢ on Opinion, 93.6¢ on Predict.fun; 2: 6.0¢ on Polymarket, 6.1¢ on Predict.fun; 5: 0.1¢ on Polymarket, 2.0¢ on Predict.fun; 3: 0.2¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
Smart money is betting against 2
Buy No at 94¢Wallets with $10K+ lifetime profit · last 24h
Smart money is betting against 2
Buy No at 94¢Wallets with $10K+ lifetime profit · last 24h
