About This Market
Traders give December 31, 2026 about a 7.9% chance. Compare prices from Polymarket, Opinion, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 4.1 percentage points.
Live prediction market odds for Will Nansen launch a token by ___?. Compare prices across Polymarket and Opinion and Predict.fun.
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Traders give December 31, 2026 about a 7.9% chance. Compare prices from Polymarket, Opinion, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 4.1 percentage points.
December 31, 2026
7.9% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Opinion and Predict.fun.
OpinionThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Nansen (https://www.nansen.ai/) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Nansen, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Predict.funThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Nansen (https://www.nansen.ai/) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Nansen, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. Created At: 2026-03-02T13:30:57.761541821Z
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Polymarket, Opinion, Predict.fun in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are December 31, 2026: 6.0¢ on Polymarket, 10.1¢ on Opinion, 7.5¢ on Predict.fun. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
The largest price difference shown across venues is 4.1 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.
For example, December 31, 2026 at 7.9¢ implies about a 7.9% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading.