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Live prediction market odds for MI-08 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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MI-08 House winner?

2026-11-04

Best price · tap to trade

Kristen McDonald Rivet (D)94¢1.06xKalshiThomas J. Smith (R)7¢14.29xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Kristen McDonald Rivet (D) about a 93.2% chance. Thomas J. Smith (R) follows at 6.7%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.9 percentage points.

Traders give Kristen McDonald Rivet (D) about a 93.2% chance. Thomas J. Smith (R) follows at 6.7%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.9 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the MI-08 House race set for November 2026. This election is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in Congress, impacting legislative agendas and national policies.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
KM
Kristen McDonald Rivet (D)
93%
Kalshi94¢
—
Polymarket94¢
Kalshi1.06x94¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
92.9%93¢94¢6¢7¢
PolymarketPolymarket
93.5%93¢94¢6¢7¢
TJ
Thomas J. Smith (R)
7%
Kalshi10¢
Polymarket US7¢
Polymarket6¢
Polymarket US14.29x7¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
7.9%6¢10¢90¢94¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
6.0%6¢7¢93¢94¢
PolymarketPolymarket
6.2%6¢6¢94¢94¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Kristen McDonald Rivet (D)

Kristen McDonald Rivet is the U.S. Representative for Michigan's 8th congressional district. She previously served as a Michigan State Senator for the 35th district from 2023 to 2025. Her extensive experience in state politics and leadership roles in education and community development underscores her qualifications for federal office.

About Thomas J. Smith (R)

Thomas J. Smith is a retired General Motors engineer and small business owner. He won the Republican primary for Michigan's 8th Congressional District in August 2026, despite suspending his campaign in July. His background in engineering and business, along with his unexpected primary victory, highlight his resilience and appeal to voters seeking change.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread1.9%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Kristen McDonald Rivet (D)

93.2% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: MI-08 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for MI-8 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of Republican, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the MI-08 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the MI-08 House race?

Odds are influenced by candidate popularity, fundraising efforts, and polling data. Local issues and national trends also play a significant role in shaping voter sentiment.

How does the MI-08 House race impact national politics?

The outcome could shift the majority in the House of Representatives, affecting legislative priorities. A change in control may lead to significant policy changes on key issues.

When will the MI-08 House race take place?

The election is scheduled for November 4, 2026. This timing aligns with the general election cycle, where multiple federal and state offices are contested.

What does the MI-08 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest MI-08 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Kristen McDonald Rivet (D): 92.9¢ on Kalshi, 93.5¢ on Polymarket; Thomas J. Smith (R): 7.9¢ on Kalshi, 6.2¢ on Polymarket, 6.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Trader up $115K lifetime bet $792 on Yes at 93¢

5d ago
PolymarketPolymarket USWill the Democratic Party win the MI-08 House seat?Trade on Polymarket US →

Prediction Market Track Record

Democratic nominee for Senate in Michigan in 2026?LOSTPre-event: 1%

Historical Track Record

Scroll to view past markets

Democratic nominee for Senate in Michigan in 2026?

Resolved

2026-05-01

LOSTKristen McDonald Rivet (D)
Pre-event: 1%