Will Missouri Proposition A pass? - 34% Chance (Live)

Live Markets

2 platforms

OutcomeConsensus

Kalshi

Polymarket

Best price

WM

Will Missouri Proposition A pass?

34%

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Kalshi	42.0%	41¢	49¢	51¢	59¢
Polymarket	25.0%	5¢	45¢	55¢	95¢

Kalshi

Polymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

Kalshi

Primary Rule

If the Yes option wins the 2026 Missouri Proposition A referendum on the 2025 congressional redistricting plan, then the market resolves to Yes. For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option must achieve the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements). If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met. Failure to meet turnout requirements results in No. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles

Polymarket

Primary Rule

The Missouri Congressional Map Referendum is a ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would uphold the new congressional district map enacted in 2025. This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of a Missouri statewide election held on or before November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Missouri, including the Missouri Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mo.gov/).

Resolution Oracles

UMA Optimistic Oraclesos.mo.govConsensus of Sources

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Missouri Proposition A about?

Missouri Proposition A addresses specific legislative changes proposed for the state. Details on the proposition's content can be found in official voter guides.

When will the voting for Proposition A take place?

Voting on Missouri Proposition A is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This date is crucial for determining the outcome of the proposition.

How do odds change for Proposition A?

Odds for Proposition A fluctuate based on campaign activity, public opinion polls, and media coverage. Significant endorsements or controversies can also impact market prices.

Will Missouri Proposition A pass: what does this prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

Will Missouri Proposition A pass: what are the current odds?

The latest available prices are Will Missouri Proposition A pass?: 42.0¢ on Kalshi, 25.0¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.