Live prediction market odds for Will the Citrini scenario happen?. Compare prices across Kalshi.
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Traders put the chance of a Yes outcome at about 22.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi.
Traders put the chance of a Yes outcome at about 22.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi.
Kalshi is tracking the likelihood of the Citrini scenario occurring in the upcoming elections. This scenario's implications could significantly influence voter sentiment and campaign strategies as the election date approaches.
Yes
22.0% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf at least 3 of: unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS) S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50% CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release occur in any release published after Issuance and before July 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
The Citrini scenario refers to a specific set of political events that could unfold during the election cycle. Understanding this scenario helps analysts gauge potential shifts in voter behavior.
Prediction markets provide insights into public sentiment and potential outcomes based on current events. The Citrini scenario could alter the dynamics of the election, making it a focal point for analysts.
Factors such as polling data, candidate performances, and major political events can impact the perceived likelihood of the Citrini scenario. As these elements evolve, they can lead to fluctuations in market odds.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Yes: 22.0¢ on Kalshi. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
