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Live prediction market odds for Will the U.S. credit rating be downgraded by December 31, 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

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Will the U.S. credit rating be downgraded by December 31, 2026?

2027-01-01

Best price · tap to trade

Another US debt downgrade before 2027?12¢8.33xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Another US debt downgrade before 2027? about a 11.5% chance. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.0 percentage points.

Traders give Another US debt downgrade before 2027? about a 11.5% chance. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.0 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking whether the U.S. credit rating will be downgraded by December 31, 2026. The market resolves based on the official rating assigned by major credit rating agencies on or before the specified date, with odds fluctuating based on economic indicators and fiscal policy developments leading up to that time.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
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Live Markets

2 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
AU
Another US debt downgrade before 2027?
12%
Kalshi12¢
Polymarket15¢
Kalshi8.33x12¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
12.0%7¢12¢88¢93¢
PolymarketPolymarket
11.0%7¢15¢85¢93¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarketPolymarket

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread1.0%
Platforms2
Candidates1
Leader

Another US debt downgrade before 2027?

11.5% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Will the U.S. credit rating be downgraded by December 31, 2026?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If U.S. credit is downgraded by any of the three major credit ratings agencies by December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the U.S. credit rating?

Factors include government debt levels, economic growth rates, and fiscal policies. Rating agencies also consider political stability and the ability to manage financial obligations.

When will the market resolve?

The market will resolve on January 1, 2027, based on the credit rating assigned by major agencies as of December 31, 2026. If a downgrade occurs before this date, it will also impact the market.

What happens if the credit rating is unchanged?

If the U.S. credit rating remains the same by the resolution date, the market will resolve in favor of that outcome. Odds will shift based on news and economic conditions leading up to the deadline.

Will the U.S. credit rating be downgraded by December 31, 2026: what does this prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

Will the U.S. credit rating be downgraded by December 31, 2026: what are the current odds?

The latest available prices are Another US debt downgrade before 2027?: 12.0¢ on Kalshi, 11.0¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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