Will the U.S. credit rating be downgraded by December 31, 2026?
Live prediction market odds for Will the U.S. credit rating be downgraded by December 31, 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Traders give Another US debt downgrade before 2027? about a 4.5% chance. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 0.9 percentage points.
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf U.S. credit is downgraded by any of the three major credit ratings agencies by December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Factors include government debt levels, economic growth rates, and fiscal policies. Rating agencies also consider political stability and the ability to manage financial obligations.
The market will resolve on January 1, 2027, based on the credit rating assigned by major agencies as of December 31, 2026. If a downgrade occurs before this date, it will also impact the market.
If the U.S. credit rating remains the same by the resolution date, the market will resolve in favor of that outcome. Odds will shift based on news and economic conditions leading up to the deadline.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Another US debt downgrade before 2027?: 4.1¢ on Kalshi, 5.0¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
