Dec. 12 Shutdown Odds Rebound Ahead of Crammed Lame Duck Session

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Will There Be a Government Shutdown on December 12, 2026? Kalshi Says About 40%

Kalshi's "Government shutdown on Dec 12, 2026?" market priced Yes at about 40% on Nov. 8, so a shutdown remains the less likely outcome, but the risk has grown. Federal funding runs out after Dec. 11, and Congress has passed none of the 12 FY2027 appropriations bills. Lawmakers return for a lame-duck session of about five weeks starting Nov. 9. The Center Square reports that the session is crammed and that there is "little bipartisan appetite" for deals before Democrats take control of both chambers on Jan. 3, 2027.

The price is up 14 percentage points from 26% three days earlier. A short-term extension is still widely expected, which keeps the implied probability below even odds.

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Government shutdown on Dec 12, 2026?

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi.

YesIn this story

40%

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The calendar is tight. The current stopgap, passed in September, expires Dec. 11. The lame duck also has to handle a farm bill and a possible fight over impeaching Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. Some Democrats, including Rep. Rosa DeLauro, the top House Democratic appropriator, have not ruled out using a year-end funding bill to block money for the Iran war, according to Politico reporting. That would turn a routine extension into a contested vote.

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How the Shutdown Market Moved Since the Midterms

The 40% reading is a return to an earlier level, not a new high. According to Vultax, Polymarket priced a shutdown by Dec. 12 at 39.5% on Nov. 4, the day after the midterms. By 12:00 UTC on Nov. 6 it had fallen to 25.5%. PredictionScout had Kalshi's Dec. 12 contract at 40% on Nov. 8.

The rebound came alongside The Center Square's reporting, but that reporting does not show it caused the move. The case against a sustained rise is just as concrete. A stopgap remains the base case, and a price that fell about 14 percentage points in two days and recovered just as quickly has shown it can reverse fast.

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Are There Polls for a Dec. 12 Government Shutdown?

No public polling tracks whether a shutdown will happen. It is a legislative outcome, not a voter choice. Market pricing on the Dec. 12 government shutdown market and reporting such as The Center Square's are the main available signals.

Several developments could confirm or reverse the move:

• A stopgap bill: a new continuing resolution introduced by Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Speaker Mike Johnson, especially one with backing from Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries, would undercut the Yes side.
• Iran war funding terms: if Democrats demand that a year-end bill block war funding, and President Trump follows through on his veto threats, the Yes side gains.
• The floor schedule: the order in which leaders take up the farm bill, Hegseth matters and funding will show whether a stopgap gets floor time before the deadline.

The decisive date is Dec. 11, when the current funding expires. The market resolves on Dec. 12.