Fourth Interstellar Object Odds Fall to 10% on Kalshi

No fourth interstellar object confirmed: "Before 2027" market falls to 10%

No new interstellar object has been confirmed for 2026 in the sources reviewed, which run through early July, so the Kalshi market "Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?" prices "Before 2027" at 10%. The only public candidate, DVAq1, drew a rebuttal from the LSST solar system team in June, who called it almost certainly a false linkage. Rubin Observatory's LSST survey, which began in 2026, is expected to find about one interstellar object per year.

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Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi.

Before 2027In this story

17%

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On Kalshi, the "Before 2027" outcome fell from 16% to 10% in the three days ending Oct. 14, a 6 percentage point drop that leaves it at the period low.

Consensus prediction market price

Background on DVAq1 and the 4I question

DVAq1 is a hyperbolic, retrograde object with an estimated v-infinity near 148 km/s, submitted to the Minor Planet Center on June 9, 2026 from three nights of Rubin data, according to the LSST community forum. The LSST team said a real discovery needs at least four to five nights with low astrometric residuals. That leaves DVAq1 unconfirmed, not formally ruled out.

The 3I/ATLAS headlines concern an object already confirmed in July 2025. A Nature paper published June 22 estimates its age at 10 to 12 billion years, per The Guardian, and an ESO study traces its composition to an old star system's outskirts. Neither adds a 4I candidate. These reports and the DVAq1 rebuttal date from June and early July, months before the October price move, and we could not establish what moved traders.

At about one detection per year, Rubin's baseline leaves little margin in the final 11 weeks of 2026.

What could move the "new interstellar visitor before 2027" odds next

A reversal would require DVAq1 observations extending its arc to the four or five nights the LSST team cited, with low residuals, or a fresh Rubin candidate meeting that bar. Without either, the interstellar visitor before 2027 market runs into its Dec. 31 resolution date with no qualifying object on record.