Will Oil Be Above $83 on Election Day? WTI Sits $14 Over the Line

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Will Oil Be Above $83 on Election Day? The $83 Or Above Contract Is Now 94%

Oil is on track to finish Election Day above $83, unless prices fall sharply first. West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $97.15 a barrel on Oct 21, according to CNBC. That leaves WTI about $14 above the strike, with 13 days left before the Nov. 3 settlement decides the contract. The cushion reflects ongoing tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz, Houthi strikes on Saudi Aramco facilities and stalled US-Iran diplomacy.

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Oil Price (WTI) on Election Day (November 3, 2026)?

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi.

$83 Or AboveIn this story

97%

Kalshi1.02x98¢

$75 Or Above

98%

Kalshi1.01x99¢

$76 Or Above

98%

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$77 Or Above

97%

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On Kalshi, the $83 Or Above contract in the Oil Price (WTI) on Election Day market rose to 94% as of Oct 21, up from 79% three days earlier. That is a gain of 15 percentage points. The contract no longer asks whether oil is expensive. It asks whether WTI can lose more than $14 in under two weeks.

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What Pushed WTI to $97.15: Hormuz, Aramco Strikes and Stalled Iran Talks

WTI slipped 67 cents on Oct 21 to settle at $97.15, per Newsquawk. Brent added 3 cents to $108.82. The day before, the November WTI contract expired at $101.79. Crude stayed high despite the small daily decline because the supply threats in the Gulf have kept building.

• Hormuz: On Oct 20, Iran's Revolutionary Guards said naval mines had stopped three tankers using routes Tehran deemed unauthorized. The IRGC said two "violating oil tankers were set ablaze." Kpler counts at least 18 vessel attacks in the area over two weeks.
• Saudi Arabia: On Oct 19, Yemen's Houthis claimed strikes on Saudi Aramco facilities in Yanbu, the Shaybah oilfield and airports in Riyadh and Abha, CNBC reported.
• Diplomacy: Iran said there was little reason to expect progress in talks, and prices rose about $2 on the comments, RTÉ reported. Secretary of State Rubio called a deal "extremely difficult."
• Supply data: The API reported a 4.9 million barrel draw in US crude inventories. Deutsche Bank noted that 2027 futures contracts hit record highs.

Our sources do not show which of these events drove the repricing.

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What Could Push WTI Below $83 Before Nov 3

The strongest case against the contract comes from Goldman Sachs. In its normalization scenario, Hormuz flows recover and oil trades near $80, below the strike. The same analysis puts prices as high as $120 if the attacks escalate. Getting from $97.15 to under $83 would require a decline of more than $14, about 15%, within two weeks.

Some factors could ease the pressure. Trump has reportedly said US forces will not attack Iran before the Nov. 3 midterms. OPEC has also trimmed its 2026 demand growth estimate to about 200,000 barrels per day. Neither development has reopened Hormuz shipping, and that is the recovery Goldman's $80 scenario depends on.

Traders should watch three things: any restart of US-Iran talks, new strikes on tankers or Aramco sites, and the WTI settlement on Nov. 3, which decides the contract. Live strike prices are on the WTI Election Day oil price odds page.