Ottawa Mayoral Odds: Leiper Rises to 13% on Polymarket

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Ottawa Mayoral Election Polls: Sutcliffe Led Leiper in the Oct. 9 Nanos Poll

A CTV/Nanos survey released Oct. 9, 2026, as originally published, put incumbent Mark Sutcliffe at 49% among decided voters. Kitchissippi Coun. Jeff Leiper had 31%, Neil Saravanamuttoo 12% and Alex Lawson 7%. That left Sutcliffe 18 points ahead, with 23% of respondents undecided. Nanos later restated its decided-voter figures (roughly 53% for Sutcliffe and 8% for one of the other candidates); the difference is within the margin of error, and we have not confirmed the restated figures for every candidate. Voting day is Oct. 26.

Nanos is not the latest public polling. Later surveys include Mainstreet Research (Oct. 14-16, n=638) and Quorus (Oct. 15, n=807), according to Ottawa Citizen, Mainstreet Research and Poliwave. We have not reproduced their figures here; see those sources for results.

On Polymarket, in the market "Who will win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?", Leiper's implied probability of winning rose from about 5% to 13% over three days, reaching 13% on Oct. 21. The polls and the market measure different things. The market move shows traders marking up a challenger who is still the underdog.

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What Happened Before Jeff Leiper's Odds Rose to 13%

On Oct. 20, Leiper pledged $50M in sewer and green infrastructure upgrades in Bay, College and Knoxdale-Merivale wards, CTV News Ottawa reported. The plan would also raise the city's compassionate grant for flood victims from $1,000 to $5,000 and create a "flood navigator program." Lawson criticized the pledge, arguing that the city must first determine the cause of the July 1 flooding.

CBC News covered the competing flood plans from Leiper and Saravanamuttoo, and CBC Ottawa broadcast the mayoral debate during the same window. The sources establish only the timing of these events. We could not establish that any of them caused the price move.

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Are There Polls for Jeff Leiper's Race Against Sutcliffe?

Yes. The CTV/Nanos survey from Oct. 9 was released 11 days before the sewer pledge, so it does not capture any reaction to the pledge. Later polls from Mainstreet Research and Quorus, linked above, were fielded after Oct. 9.

Poll shares and market odds are not comparable. Leiper's 31% in the Nanos poll was his share of decided voters. His 13% is a trader-implied probability that he finishes first. A candidate can hold a large share of the vote and still have long odds of winning when he trails.

Live market odds

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Who will win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi and Polymarket.

Jeff LeiperIn this story

14%

PolymarketBest price7.09x14.1¢Kalshi6.67x15¢

Mark Sutcliffe

86%

PolymarketBest price1.15x87¢Kalshi1.14x88¢

3 others under 1%Show all

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Leiper, who has held the Kitchissippi seat since 2014, is running on transit, housing and transparency planks. These include reversing OC Transpo cuts, building 1,500 non-profit homes a year and refusing developer donations, according to the Kitchissippi Times and a CBC profile.

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What the Poll and Market Odds Don't Show About Leiper vs. Sutcliffe

The Nanos poll was taken before Leiper's flood announcement, so it cannot show whether voter support moved afterward.

The market move also starts from a low base. An increase of about 8 percentage points still leaves Leiper's implied probability at roughly one in eight. The 23% undecided share in the Nanos poll is where the race could move, but we have no data showing which way those voters are leaning.

The market is scheduled to resolve on Oct. 26, election day. Check the Ottawa mayoral election market page for the full settlement rules, which this article does not cover.