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Live prediction market odds for Who will win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

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Who will win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?

2026-10-26

Best price · tap to trade

Mark Sutcliffe82¢1.22xKalshiJeff Leiper9¢11.11xKalshiAlex Lawson5¢20.00xKalshi
Compare all 5 outcomes across 2 venues

About This Market

Traders give Mark Sutcliffe about a 82.0% chance. Jeff Leiper follows at 6.8%, Alex Lawson follows at 4.6%, and Neil Saravanamuttoo follows at 1.2%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 4.0 percentage points.

Traders give Mark Sutcliffe about a 82.0% chance. Jeff Leiper follows at 6.8%, Alex Lawson follows at 4.6%, and Neil Saravanamuttoo follows at 1.2%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 4.0 percentage points.

Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election. The outcome will influence local governance and policy direction in Ottawa, making it a focal point for voters and political analysts alike.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
MS
Mark Sutcliffe
82%
Kalshi82¢
Polymarket84¢
Kalshi1.22x82¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
80.0%79¢82¢18¢21¢
PolymarketPolymarket
84.0%83¢84¢16¢17¢
JL
Jeff Leiper
7%
Kalshi9¢
Polymarket8¢
Kalshi11.24x9¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
6.0%5¢9¢91¢95¢
PolymarketPolymarket
7.5%7¢8¢92¢93¢
AL
Alex Lawson
5%
Kalshi5¢
Polymarket7¢
Kalshi20.00x5¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
4.0%4¢5¢95¢96¢
PolymarketPolymarket
5.2%3¢7¢93¢97¢
NS
Neil Saravanamuttoo
1%
Kalshi1¢
Polymarket2¢
Kalshi100.00x1¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
0.5%0¢1¢99¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
1.9%1¢2¢98¢99¢
CM
Catherine McKenney
0%
Kalshi5¢
Polymarket1¢
Kalshi21.28x5¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
0.2%0¢5¢95¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
0.4%0¢1¢99¢100¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Mark Sutcliffe

Mark Sutcliffe is the current Mayor of Ottawa, having been elected in 2022. Before entering politics, he was a journalist and entrepreneur, hosting Ottawa Today on 1310News radio. His leadership and policies as mayor are central to the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election.

About Jeff Leiper

Jeff Leiper is the current Ottawa city councillor for Kitchissippi Ward. He was first elected in 2014, defeating incumbent Katherine Hobbs. He announced his intention to run for mayor of Ottawa in the 2026 municipal election.

Smart Trade Router

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread4.0%
Platforms2
Candidates5
Leader

Mark Sutcliffe

82.0% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Who will win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Alex Lawson wins the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the significance of the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?

The election will determine the leadership of Ottawa, affecting local policies and initiatives. Voter turnout and candidate platforms will play crucial roles in shaping the city's future.

How do prediction markets reflect the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?

Prediction markets aggregate public sentiment and expert analysis, providing insights into potential outcomes. Shifts in odds can indicate changing voter preferences and campaign dynamics.

What factors could influence the odds for the Ottawa mayoral election?

Key factors include candidate popularity, campaign strategies, and current events impacting the city. Polling data and debates leading up to the election will also affect market perceptions.

Who will win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election: what does this prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

Who will win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election: what are the current odds?

The latest available prices are Mark Sutcliffe: 80.0¢ on Kalshi, 84.0¢ on Polymarket; Jeff Leiper: 6.0¢ on Kalshi, 7.5¢ on Polymarket; Alex Lawson: 4.0¢ on Kalshi, 5.2¢ on Polymarket; Neil Saravanamuttoo: 0.5¢ on Kalshi, 1.9¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Swiss initiatives: September 2026

Resolved Sep 27

Final odds

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Leiper Drops 9 Points in Ottawa Mayor Race After Rival's ArrestJeff Leiper fell from 16% to 7% in three days. The arrest stems from death-threat charges targeting the incumbent Leiper is trying to unseat.Sep 28, 2026Jeff Leiper's Win Probability Halved in Three Days on Prediction MarketsLeiper fell from 17% to 8% in 72 hours as Ottawa's mayoral race consolidates around Sutcliffe, with no public polling to contradict the market's verdict.Sep 22, 2026Sutcliffe Leads Ottawa Mayor Race at 36% But Markets Price Him at 84%A July Liaison Strategies poll shows Sutcliffe down 10 points from April, yet a three-way opposition split keeps his market probability near certainty.Sep 18, 2026Leiper Drops to 15% in Ottawa Mayor Markets While Polls Show 25%Prediction markets cut Leiper 19 points in 72 hours. Sutcliffe holds 36–38% in polls; Lawson may be absorbing the anti-incumbent vote.Aug 29, 2026