Club Kid's Best Picture Odds Slip to 24% Amid Screenplay Talk

Club Kid has a 24% chance of a Best Picture nomination on Kalshi as of Oct. 21, 2026, and no nomination is possible before the Academy announces its 99th Oscar nominations in January 2027. Jordan Firstman's directorial debut, an A24 release opening in U.S. theaters on November 6, 2026, still faces reviews, box office returns and precursor awards. For now, Next Best Picture treats Best Original Screenplay as the film's most realistic path.

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Will Club Kid Get a Best Picture Oscar Nomination? Market Says 24%

On Kalshi, the contract on Club Kid earning a Best Picture nomination traded at 24% on Oct. 21, 2026, down from 28% three days earlier. That 4-percentage-point slide puts the price at its lowest level in the period. This figure is a market-implied probability, not a forecast from the Academy or a result. Traders are pricing roughly a one-in-four chance of a nomination.

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Oscar nominations for Best Picture?

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi.

Club KidIn this story

23%

Kalshi4.17x24¢

The Odyssey

98%

Kalshi1.01x99¢

Project Hail Mary

78%

Kalshi1.25x80¢

Dune: Part Three

82%

Kalshi1.19x84¢

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Why Pundits See Club Kid as a Screenplay Contender Rather Than a Best Picture One

Firstman writes, directs and stars as Peter, a washed-up New York party promoter who learns he has a 10-year-old son. The film premiered in Cannes' Un Certain Regard section in May 2026 to a six-minute standing ovation. A24 then paid a reported $17 million for it. It screened at Telluride in early September.

Next Best Picture identifies Best Original Screenplay as the film's most realistic category. Variety and 10NEWS also flag 73-year-old Colleen Camp as a possible supporting actress "secret weapon," though both expect a crowded field in that category.

We could not establish what caused the drop from 28% to 24%. No new review, release change or awards result has been confirmed in the past three days. An earlier Prediction.com report on the slide reached the same conclusion.

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What Could Still Move Club Kid's Oscar Odds Before January 2027

The next checkpoints are the film's November 6 theatrical opening and its box office, and the precursor awards that lead into nominations. The market concerns whether Club Kid lands among the Best Picture nominees, with a resolution date of January 21, 2027. Live pricing for every film in the field sits on the Oscar Best Picture nominations market page.