Market News & Analysis
Auto-generated, data-driven articles on significant prediction market moves and cross-platform arbitrage opportunities. 1,702 published · page 5 of 18.
Yamal Jumps to 45% Ballon d'Or Favorite After Croatia Brace
A brace against Croatia on September 29 pushed Yamal from 28% to 45% on prediction markets. He holds a World Cup title, La Liga crown, and 42 goal involvements this season.
Lawrence Leads Barrett by 2 Points, but MI-07 Markets Price Him at 67%
The only recent poll shows Lawrence up 49%-47%. Call the Map gives him 52.8%. Prediction markets have jumped 9 points to 67% with no new data to justify the move.
Burlison's MO-07 Odds Fall 14 Points After Missouri Redistricting
Markets price Burlison's MO-07 general election at 82%, down from 96% in three days, while Kalshi sits at 78% and Polymarket at 85%.
Yankees AL Championship Odds Hit 33% Despite Judge Absence After 9-0
Schlittler's 10 strikeouts and Rice's grand slam powered a Wild Card shutout of Boston, lifting Yankees odds 11 points to 33%.
Georgia's 2026 SEC Title Odds Hit 36% After 9-Point Jump With No New
The market closed a gap between Georgia's 27% price and its 88-vote preseason poll lead. Texas sits second with 57 votes and comparable title odds.
Padres NL Pennant Volume Jumps 6x as Wild Card Series Opens
$147K traded on September 29 vs. a $25K daily baseline. Kalshi drove 84% of the surge while San Diego holds 10%, far behind the Dodgers at 42%.
Lynx Eliminated in First Round, Championship Odds Fall from 45% to 23%
Minnesota fell to New York in the first round on Sep. 27 despite the league's best record, cutting their Women's Pro Basketball Champion probability by 22 points.
Yan Hits 61% to Retain UFC Bantamweight Title Before Dvalishvili 3
Yan rose 8 percentage points in three days ahead of the UFC 331 rematch on Oct 24, a bout that effectively decides the year-end market.
Boise State Hits 56% to Win 2026 Pac-12 Title, Up 9 Points in Three Days
Boise State sits at 56% to win the 2026 Pac-12 Championship with zero conference games played. San Diego State is next at +400.
Villegas Leads CA-22 Polls but Market Probability Fell 12 Points in 3
Forecasters rate CA-22 a Toss-up despite Villegas's 48-44 polling lead, and his win probability has slipped to 77% as traders discount the lone partisan survey.
Stuttgart's Top 4 Probability Falls to 30% After Two Losses in Three
Stuttgart sit 14th after three 2026-27 matchdays, and prediction markets have cut their Top 4 probability 8 points in three days to a season low.
Padres World Series Volume Hits 2.6x Normal After Postseason Clinch
$658K traded on Sep 28, the highest single-day total in the market's 29-day history, as San Diego locked in a third straight playoff berth.
Junior Class Leads 2026 Heisman at 44% After Smith Jr.'s 4-TD Game
Juniors climbed 12 points to 44% in three days, overtaking Senior/Graduate at 27%, after Smith Jr. and Chambliss both broke out in Week 4.
Fed's September 2026 Hike Puts January 2027 Hike at 48%
Markets repriced January 2027 by 14 percentage points in three days after the September 16 hike. The dot plot shows 4.1% through all of 2027 with no cuts projected.
Toledo Hits 30% MAC Title Odds as WMU Appeal Reshuffles the Field
Toledo jumped from 20% to 30% in three days after the MAC filed a formal appeal contesting Western Michigan's 13-12 loss to Michigan, displacing WMU probability.
Monaco Leads Ligue 1 Unbeaten, Yet Top 4 Probability Drops 13 Points
Markets cut Monaco's Top 4 probability from 69% to 56% in three days, despite 13 points from 5 games and a win at PSG.
Manchester City's Top 2 Probability Falls 10 Points After 114-Charge
City lead the Premier League with five wins from five, yet their Top 2 probability fell from 58% to 48% after reports of guilty verdicts on 114 financial charges. Bookmakers cut relegation odds from 11/1 to 9/2.
Mendoza Hits 86% in AZ-06 While Every Forecaster Still Calls
Call the Map gives Mendoza 62-in-100 on a D+1.7 margin. Prediction markets price her at 86%, the largest model-market gap in any top-tier House race.
Forecasters Give Nunn 66% in IA-03. Markets Price Him at 32%.
Cook rates IA-03 'Lean R' and Psephologix gives Nunn 66%, but prediction markets sit at 32%. His contract has gained 8 points in three days.
Castor FL-14 Re-Election Odds Fall 10 Points to Near Toss-Up
Prediction markets price Castor at 59% as Inside Elections calls FL-14 a toss-up, the first genuinely competitive rating of her 18-year tenure.
Tonko Hits 96% on Kalshi as Markets Close Gap With Forecasters
Prediction markets repriced Tonko 10 points higher in 72 hours. Structural models have held at 99% for weeks, projecting a D+27.1 margin.
Casar's TX-37 Opponent Has $770. Why Not 100%?
Casar sits at 96% with a 775-to-1 fundraising edge over Lauren Peña. The residual 4% is a time premium, not competitive risk.
Markets Price Elmano at 61% While Datafolha Shows a Dead Heat
Elmano's win probability jumped 8 points in three days despite a statistical tie in Datafolha. Two of three recent polls show him leading by 7 points.
Man City Top 4 Odds Fall to 62% After Guilty Verdict on 114 Charges
City convicted on 114 of 115 Premier League financial charges; relegation is now priced at 18%, with sanctions ranging from points deductions to expulsion still to be determined.
Miller Trails by 8 in OH-07 Polls as Market Prices Him at 32%
Traders pushed Miller from 20% to 32% in three days, but a Bedrock poll shows Poindexter leading 43-35 with early voting starting in eight days.
Don Beyer Hits 96% in VA-08 as GOP Fields No Real Challenger
Beyer's primary win at 67% and a canceled GOP primary pushed his market price to 96%. The district backed Democrats by 47 points in 2024.
Fong Hits 98% in CA-20 After $45M in Grants and Wildfire Law
A 9-point surge in three days follows $45M+ in federal deliverables in a district Fong already won by 36 points in the June primary.
FL-17: Why Steube's 94% Market Price Lags a 98% Forecast
Call the Map projects Steube at 98-in-100 with R+16.4. Markets moved from 87% to 94% in three days but still trail the model by four points.
Ohio State's Big Ten Title Odds Rise to 45% Despite Texas Collapse
Bettors lifted Ohio State's conference title probability 9 points to 45% after the Texas loss, pricing a favorable Big Ten schedule over a non-conference collapse.
Kotek Oregon Governor Odds Fall 8 Points as Drazan Rematch Takes Shape
Prediction markets price Kotek at 78%, down from 86% in three days. The 2022 race was decided by under 3 points with a third-party spoiler who isn't running in 2026.
Leiper Drops 9 Points in Ottawa Mayor Race After Rival's Arrest
Jeff Leiper fell from 16% to 7% in three days. The arrest stems from death-threat charges targeting the incumbent Leiper is trying to unseat.
Forecasters Rate Cammack 97-98% in FL-03 While Markets Sit at 94%
Every major forecaster rates Cammack near-certain in FL-03. Prediction markets trail at 94%, likely due to thin liquidity, not competitive doubt.
Yamal's Ballon d'Or 2026 Odds Hit 33% as Kane's Lead Shrinks to 26
Yamal jumped 9 points in three days, trimming Kane's lead from 35pp to 26pp. He now trades at 34% on Kalshi and 32% on Polymarket with five weeks to go.
Virginia Foxx Hits 88% in NC-05 as Markets Correct a Persistent
Foxx gained 9 points in three days with no new catalyst. She holds a 9:1 cash advantage in a Safe R district rated R+11.6.
Georgia's SEC Title Odds Hit 42% Despite Leading Preseason Poll
Markets price Georgia at 42% for the 2026 SEC title after an 88-vote preseason poll lead, while a road slate at Alabama and Ole Miss keeps them below a coin flip.
Steve Womack Hits 96% in AR-03 as Challenger Raises Just $120K
Womack's re-election probability jumped 8 points in three days. His Democratic challenger has raised $120K against a $1.9M war chest in an R+15 district.
Lynx Title Odds Fell 20 Points in 72 Hours. Here's Why.
The No. 1 seed with a 33-11 record, Minnesota dropped from 44% to 24% as Napheesa Collier's ankle recovery and a Liberty first-round draw spooked traders.
Dyas Drops 14 Points in Three Days as Cannan Leads Kelowna Mayor Race
Tom Dyas fell from 51% to 38% after his 'Treatment First' platform launch coincided with the steepest three-day decline of his campaign, with October 17 three weeks out.
Louisville ACC Title Odds Fall to 6% Despite Beating SMU
Louisville dropped from 15% to 6% in three days. A win over SMU couldn't offset Virginia Tech's surge, which is compressing rivals across the ACC board.
Conaway Hits 94% in NJ-03 as Cook Rates Seat Solid D
Call the Map projects D+20.1; no Republican has cleared any forecast threshold. Conaway ran unopposed in the Democratic primary.
Georgia CFP Top-4 Seed Probability Drops 21 Points in 3 Days
Georgia fell from 54% to 33% on CFP top-4 seed markets. Road trips to Alabama and Ole Miss headline a 2026 SEC slate that bettors are treating as near-disqualifying.
Gooden Hits 94% in TX-05 as Ethics Probe Fails to Dent His Reelection
Prediction markets price Gooden as a near-lock despite an active House Ethics Committee probe, with opponent Chelsey Hockett holding just $5,000 cash on hand.
Ohio State CFP Odds Hit 45% Despite Blowing 20-Point Lead to Texas
Buckeyes lost 24-23 after leading 23-3 in the fourth quarter. Markets absorbed the collapse and repriced Ohio State 16 points higher over three days.
James Madison - JMU Hits 42% in Sun Belt Title Market After 10-Point Surge
JMU jumped from 32% to 42% in three days, the largest mid-season move in the Sun Belt title market. No rival has cleared the low teens.
AI-PAC Spending Gives DeSpain Her Best Attack as Hoyle Sits at 95%
Hoyle's win probability climbed 8 points in 3 days. A $292K AI-PAC spend she never authorized is DeSpain's only real line of attack.
Moolenaar Hits 98% in MI-02 After Challenger Wins Split Primary with 44%
Ambrose took the Democratic nomination with 44.3%, leaving more than half of primary voters behind. Moolenaar holds $1.9M cash on hand in a Safe R seat.
Yan's Title Odds Drop 11 Points Before Dvalishvili Trilogy
Yan's year-end title probability fell from 64% to 53% in three days. Dvalishvili already owns a win over the current champion and gets his rematch October 24.
Ken Sim Falls to 28% as Progressives Unite Behind Pete Fry
Azaroff's exit handed Fry a clear run at Sim, collapsing the incumbent's market probability from 39% to 28% in three days and ending the vote-split that kept Sim competitive.
Harbaugh Coach of the Year Volume Spikes 4.5x, Price Holds at 7%
$51K traded on Sep 26 at 4.5x the weekly baseline. Harbaugh's implied probability moved one percentage point, from 6% to 7%, suggesting two-sided disagreement rather than directional conviction.
Graham's SC Senate Odds Hold at 87% After 5.7x Volume Spike
$125K traded on Sept 26 vs. a $22K daily average. Republican odds held flat while Kalshi led with $75K across 134 trades.
Rival Resets, Not Collapses, Cut Boise State's Pac-12 Title Odds by 11
Boise fell from 48% to 38% as Oregon and USC shed known liabilities, creating option value that tightened the field rather than opening it.
Western Michigan MAC Title Odds Cut to 22% After NCAA Rejects Hail Mary
Broncos drop 11 percentage points from 33% as the NCAA refused to overturn their disputed 13-12 opening loss to Michigan, erasing the undefeated blueprint.
Democratic Senate Sweep Falls to 58% on GOP Ad Gap and Michigan
Prediction markets price a Democratic sweep of the core four Senate races at 58%, down 8 points in three days. Rogers' crossover outreach in Michigan is a key driver.
Stelson's PA-10 Odds Drop 12 Points as First Fall Poll Shows Perry +3
Markets cut Stelson from 86% to 74% in three days after a Franklin & Marshall poll put Perry ahead. Call the Map still gives her 68%.
DCCC Backing Pushes Barrett to 31% Underdog in MI-07
Barrett fell 11 points in 3 days after DCCC added Lawrence to Red to Blue. His $6.3M war chest has not reversed the slide.
Leipzig's Top 4 Odds Fall 19 Points After 2-2 Start to 2026-27
Prediction markets price Leipzig at 43% for a Bundesliga top-4 finish, down from 62% three days ago, with Kalshi and Polymarket showing a 36-point spread.
Jackson's Maine Senate Odds Fall 8 Points as Collins Fights Back
A $1.1M GOP ad blitz on transgender prison policy and Collins's Social Security rebuttals pulled Jackson from 71% to 63% in three days.
India's Ebola Odds Fall to 12% After 11,000 Travelers Screened Clean
Markets cut India's 2026 Ebola probability 16 percentage points in three days. Zero cases found among nearly 11,000 screened arrivals despite a Congo outbreak topping 6,000 infections.
Hurricane Nolo Stalls 150 Miles From Hawaii as Landfall Odds Fall to 10%
Forecasters expect Nolo to turn west before reaching shore, pushing the 2026 Hawaii landfall contract down 14 points in three days. October remains.
Meloni Hits 44% to Win Italy's Next Election After Electoral Reform
Markets price Meloni at 44% for PM, up 9 points in 3 days, as parliament-backed electoral reform strengthens her structural position against a fragmented opposition.
Gillingham's Re-Election Odds Fall to 52% as 13 Candidates Enter
Incumbent shed 10 percentage points in three days. Kevin Klein's entry and a 13-candidate field are fracturing his coalition.
Lyon's 4-0 Win Cuts Rennes' Ligue 1 Top 4 Chances to 33%
Rennes fell from 48% to 33% in three days after the Lyon defeat pushed them to fifth, with PSG climbing and the Top 4 race tightening around them.
Elmano Jumps to 56% After Polls Cut Ciro's 19-Point Lead to 5
Three Sept. 18 polls erased Ciro's August lead. Markets price Elmano at 56%, yet every published runoff simulation still gives Ciro a 48–45 edge.
Rick Jackson Hits 47% in Georgia Gov Markets Despite 3-Point Poll Lead
Jackson surged 14pp in prediction markets over 72 hours, yet his lone public poll shows a 48%-45% lead with 7% undecided and a debate looming October 6.
Hinojosa Falls to 22% as Polls Show Texas Governor Race a Tossup
Bettors cut Hinojosa 9 points in 3 days while RealClearPolitics moved the race to tossup. Republican ads outpaced Democrats 502M to 331M impressions in September.
Ohio State Big Ten Title Odds Hit 44% Despite Texas Collapse
Markets pushed Ohio State's Big Ten title probability up 8 points to 44% in three days. Indiana sits second at 25%, a 19-point gap.
Wellman Hits 31% in MO-02 Despite Court Locking In GOP Map
Wellman gained 8 points in 72 hours as redistricting coverage nationalized the race, drawing donor and volunteer attention to a seat forecasters rate R+5.3.
Nez Reaches 38% in AZ-02 After Poll Shows 2-Point Race
A late-August poll put Crane ahead only 46-44 in a Trump +double-digit district, triggering an 8-point market move for Nez over three days.
Tsarukyan KOs Ruffy, But Title Odds Fall to 6% on Gaethje-Topuria
Prediction markets cut Tsarukyan from 16% to 6% to hold the lightweight belt by year-end, with Kalshi at 9% and Polymarket at 4%.
Tennessee's Undefeated Odds Fall to 9% Despite 3-0 Start
Traders cut the Vols' probability by 16 points in three days, pricing Alabama, LSU, and Texas as near-impossible hurdles for true freshman Faizon Brandon.
Man City Win 5-3 But Top-2 Odds Drop 20 Points in Three Days
City's EPL Top 2 implied probability fell from 78% to 58% in 72 hours despite the Sunderland win, with Kalshi and Polymarket diverging by 15 points.
Manchester City's Top 4 Odds Halved Despite Perfect 5-0 Start
City lead the Premier League on 15 points from five games, yet their Top 4 probability fell 46 points in 72 hours, driven by competitive repricing across rival clubs.
Murphy's NC-03 Win Probability Falls 9 Points With No Clear Catalyst
Murphy holds 79% in a R+16.8 district with a 9-to-1 fundraising edge over Smith, yet markets have sold off steadily for three days.
Strickland Drops to 60% After Imavov Title Shot Confirmed
Imavov's confirmed challenge repriced the middleweight market to its tightest gap yet. He now sits at 33%, up 10 points, with no third contender above 8%.
Florida Democrats' 10-Seat Chances Triple Despite DeSantis Redistricting
The 10-seat implied probability jumped from 6% to 17% in three days, even as courts have shown reluctance to redraw maps this close to an election.
Jon Bonck Drops 8 Points in TX-38 With No Local Threat
Bonck falls from 93% to 85% in a Solid R district. His opponent has raised just $67K and no scandal has surfaced, pointing to national repricing.
Texas Is No. 1 but Markets Give Them a Coin-Flip Chance of Missing CFP
Kalshi prices Texas at 34% for a top-4 seed, Polymarket at 61%. The 27-point gap opened after their comeback win over Ohio State pushed the composite from 38% to 48%.
Eight GOP Candidates Split LA-05 as Republican Odds Fall to 88%
Cook still rates LA-05 'Solid R,' but markets dropped 9 points after Democrats unified behind Antonio Wilson of Tallulah.
Rodgers Retirement Sits at 10% as Next-Team Market Logs 7x Volume Day
$106K traded on Sep 24 in Rodgers's Next Team market, 7.29x the daily baseline. Pittsburgh holds at 90% despite his May retirement pledge.
Walberg Drops 8 Points in MI-05 Despite R+21 Forecast
Walberg's implied probability fell from 94% to 86% in three days, with Kalshi pricing him 15 points below Polymarket and no public challenger on record.
Gosar's AZ-09 Win Probability Falls 9 Points in 3 Days With No Catalyst
Cook rates AZ-09 'Solid R' and Gosar holds a 12-to-1 cash advantage over Sterbinsky, yet markets repriced him from 95% to 86% in three days.
Bill Graves Endorsement Triples Kansas Senate Betting Volume
Trading hit $146K on Sep 24, 3.3x the weekly norm. Marshall leads at 68% but has been outraised by Hamilton on total receipts.
Moolenaar's 22-to-1 Cash Edge Locks Up MI-02 at 98%
Benjamin Ambrose has $85K against Moolenaar's $1.9M with six weeks out. No outside Democratic spending has materialized to close the gap.
Falcons' NFC South Odds Triple to 18% on Packers Blowout
Atlanta jumped from 6% to 18% in three days after a 35-14 win over Green Bay, yet a 34-3 home loss to Carolina two weeks prior still shadows the move.
Dueling Court Orders on Missouri Maps Cut Onder's MO-03 Odds to 86%
State and federal courts have issued conflicting orders on which congressional map Missouri will use, pushing the Republican implied probability down 8 points in three days.
Tom Dyas Reaches 51% in Kelowna Mayor Race With Forum Ten Days Out
Dyas gained 12 points in three days as vote-splitting arithmetic and a confirmed three-candidate field push him past the coin-flip threshold.
Ken Sim Rebounds to 38% in Vancouver Mayor Race After 23% Low
Sim gained 15 points in three days with no new polling to explain the move, suggesting traders are doubting the progressive consolidation thesis.
Phil Scott's Vermont Governor Odds Fall to 82% After Democrats Unite
Scott drops 9 points in three days after Amanda Janoo's primary win and a party unity rally. A July poll already showed his approval at 51%, down from 61%.
Flores Falls to 17% in TX-34 Despite R+10 Map as He Scrubs Trump
Eric Flores dropped 8 percentage points in three days. The only public poll shows Gonzalez leading 45-42 in a district redistricting built for Republicans.
Vikings Playoff Odds Hit 62% After 9-3 Win Raises Offensive Questions
Minnesota jumped 8 percentage points in three days after going 2-0, but a scoreless Week 2 touchdown column keeps the ceiling debate open.
Pete Sessions Drops 8 Points in TX-17 Despite a $9,000 Opponent
Sessions fell from 95% to 86% in three days with no local catalyst. Forecasters still give him a 98.4% win probability in the R+21 district.
Malkovich's Venice Win Halved Norton's Supporting Actor Odds
Norton fell from 20% to 10% in 72 hours, not from a rival in his own category. Giamatti now leads Supporting Actor at 37–39%.
DCCC Targets FL-22, Pushing Dandiya to 52% in Prediction Markets
The DCCC added FL-22 to its competitive list after Dandiya's 68.6% primary win, lifting her odds 10 points to 52% against Casey Askar.
Stelson Leads Perry by 3 Points, But Her Market Odds Fell 8 Points
A new Franklin & Marshall poll puts Stelson up 3 points in PA-10, yet traders cut her win probability from 86% to 78% in three days.
Alex Saab's Guilty Plea Pushes Maduro's Google Top 5 Odds to 54%
The Sep 15 money laundering conviction is the third Maduro-linked legal event in nine months. It is the first to push him past 50% on the year-end list.
LaLota Sits at 85% in Prediction Markets While Forecasters Peg Him
Kalshi and Polymarket price LaLota at 85%, up 9 points in three days. Call the Map's model holds at 69% on a predicted R+2.9 margin with one poll on record.
Likud Jumps 8 Points to 37% as Israeli Opposition Fractures
Likud climbed from 29% to 37% in three days while Eisenkot's Yashar holds 62%. Opposition infighting among Golan, Bennett, and Lieberman is driving the repricing.
India's Ebola Probability Falls to 11% After 11,000 Travelers Screened
Zero detections across nearly 11,000 screened arrivals drove a 21-point drop. The DRC outbreak has now crossed 6,000 confirmed cases.
Vargas Slips to 88% in CA-52 Despite 22-to-1 Fundraising Edge
The 8-point drop over three days traces to a single platform showing 79% while Polymarket holds at 96%, with no polling or scandal behind it.
Norcross Market Odds Fall 9 Points Despite 99% Forecast Consensus
Call the Map rates Norcross at 99.3% with a D+28.4 margin, but his prediction market price fell from 96% to 88% in three days, creating an 11-point model-market gap.