Market News & Analysis
Auto-generated, data-driven articles on significant prediction market moves and cross-platform arbitrage opportunities. 1,333 published · page 5 of 14.
Evloev's Featherweight Title Odds Fall After He Confirms Lightweight
Evloev dropped from 46% to 38% in three days. The trigger: he confirmed a 12 kg cut and plans to leave featherweight win or lose at UFC 333.
Dyas Climbs to 41% in Kelowna Mayor Race as Cannan Closes In
Incumbent mayor gains 8 percentage points in 3 days, recovering from a period low of 32%; Cannan holds dual credibility as councillor and ex-MP.
Once Upon a Time in Harlem's Oscar Documentary Odds Double on Festival
Film jumps from 9% to 20% for Best Documentary Feature, with a Maysles Albie Award and NYFF main-slate slot cited as the overlooked signals behind the move.
Alvarez Leads AL Batting at .317 but His Title Odds Have Fallen to 34%
Markets cut Alvarez from 42% to 34% in three days. With 24 games left and challengers near .308, September variance is the deciding factor.
Giamatti Jumps 8 Points to 36% for 2027 Supporting Actor Oscar
Giamatti climbs from 27% to 36% in three days on Kalshi and Polymarket. A 15-point spread between platforms suggests the move is concentrated, not consensus.
Crow-Armstrong Hits 86% for NL Hank Aaron Award After 38-Point Run
No NL challenger holds meaningful market share. The 38-point climb since late August was built on cumulative production, not a single game.
Two August Storms Push Hawaii Hurricane Odds to 24%
Lala's near-miss and Lowell's 855-mile approach repriced landfall risk from 13% to 24%. Neither storm made landfall.
Gillingham Drops 9 Points in Winnipeg Mayor Race as Klein Registers
Kevin Klein filed Sept. 3; Gillingham fell from 71% to 62% in three days. The campaign went negative within hours of registration.
Satoshi Bitcoin Market Volume Jumps 6x, Probability Stays at 5%
$60,394 traded on Sept 3 across 88 trades, six times the weekly average. The 5% probability held flat, signaling attention without conviction.
Schwarber's Home Run Title Odds Fall 8 Points as Challenger Closes Gap
Schwarber's prediction market probability dropped from 64% to 56% in three days despite his 40-homer lead, with Yordan Alvarez emerging as the primary threat.
Paul W. Downs Emmy Odds Fall 42% in Three Days to 11%
Downs slid from 19% to 11% in three days with no confirmed catalyst, leaving him at a period low with the Sept. 14 ceremony 10 days out.
Malkovich Jumps to 24% Best Actor After Wild Horse Nine Venice Premiere
Venice reviews pushed Malkovich from 16% to 24% in three days. He now sits second in the 2027 Best Actor race, with nomination odds at 81% on Kalshi.
TX-35 Poll: De La Cruz Leads by 1 in a District Built for GOP +10
De La Cruz leads Garcia 45%-44% in a Trump +10 district. Garcia holds a slight cash-on-hand edge at $323K vs. $272K heading into fall.
Somaliland Recognition Odds Jump to 28% Despite White House Denial
Markets moved from 8% to 28% in three days. A congressional source said in June 2026 that recognition was not expected, yet Kalshi and Polymarket are both repricing.
Inter's Serie A Title Odds Hit 48% as Napoli's Allegri Transition Drags
Defending champions jump from 28% to 48% in three days; Napoli, runners-up last season, face a manager transition that markets are pricing as a structural drag.
Imavov Confirmed as Next UFC Middleweight Challenger, Priced at 33%
His probability jumped 10 points in three days once the title shot moved from rumored to confirmed, leaving Strickland at 59% and no credible third contender above 8%.
Freeman Rebounds to 20% in Doubles Race After August Selloff
Freeman's probability climbed from 14% to 20% in three days, reversing the late-August slide, even though he still trails Burleson by two doubles.
Project Hail Mary Jumps to 26% for Best Original Score With No Catalyst
The film rose 17 points in three days despite no reviews, no precursor results, and no confirmed news. The ceremony is March 14, 2027.
Feely Outraises Shah as AZ-01 Democratic Odds Fall 8 Points
Prediction markets price Democrats at 71% in AZ-01, down from 79%. Feely holds a $500K fundraising lead and a Trump endorsement in the open-seat race.
Fed Rate-Cut Volume Hits 3.87x Normal as '17 Cuts' Jumps to 70%
On Sep 2, $52,675 traded in the rate-cuts-in-2026 market, nearly 4x the daily average, with 'Exactly 17 cuts' surging from 10% to 70% in 24 hours.
JUUL Crème Brûlée Odds Fall to 9% as No PMTA Filed After JUUL2 Auth
JUUL filed no dessert-flavor PMTA after the Aug. 28 JUUL2 authorization. Crème Brûlée dropped 15 points in three days to sit at 9% on Kalshi.
Wild Horse Nine Jumps to 84% for Best Picture Nod After Venice Premiere
McDonagh's CIA thriller gained 10pp in three days on festival buzz, with only 3pp separating it from fourth place and no published reviews yet.
Dylan Cease Leads AL in FIP and Strikeouts, But Schlittler Pulls Away
Cease dropped 8 percentage points in three days on Kalshi and Polymarket, now sitting at 24% as Schlittler holds a -165 implied edge.
ChatGPT Best AI Trading Jumps 7.7x After OpenAI Hits $1B Ad Run Rate
$114K traded on ChatGPT's Best AI contract in one day, 7.68x the baseline. Claude still leads at around 64–69%, up approximately 42 points on the field.
Bohannan Hits 75–79% in IA-01 Markets Despite Cook Toss-Up Rating
Miller-Meeks fell 8 points in three days to 21%, even as Cook holds IA-01 at toss-up in a district Trump won by 8.5 points.
Lindstrom's Ballot Disqualification Clears the Field for Pillen
Signature fraud knocked Lindstrom off the nonpartisan line; he now runs on the minor America First Party ticket as Republican odds hold at 92%.
OpenAI Jalapeño Chip News Coincides With GPT-6 Market Volume Surge
$284,350 traded on Sep 2 in the GPT-6 release market, nearly 10x the prior week's daily average. The September 30 contract jumped 32 percentage points to 85%.
The Pitt's Google Year in Search 2026 Odds Fall to 9% Despite HBO Season
Traders cut The Pitt from 17% to 9% in 72 hours while HBO fast-tracked a third season, pricing in an unnamed Q4 rival with four months left on the calendar.
Clarity Act Senate Odds Fall to 24% With 60-Vote Cloture Needed
The 'Above 58' market dropped 14 percentage points in three days. Seven Senate Democrats have publicly opposed the latest draft, forming a bloc that could sink cloture.
CDU Jumps 12 Points in Berlin Odds After Replacing Wegner With Evers
Stefan Evers took over as CDU lead candidate on July 12, pushing the party from 26% to 38% on Kalshi and Polymarket ahead of the September 20 Berlin state vote.
Late Show Emmy Odds Fall 10 Points Despite Record Nine Nominations
Kalshi prices Colbert at 72%, Polymarket at 76%, with no public trigger explaining the slide. TCA wins and a 9.1M-viewer finale failed to hold the ceiling.
Begich Drops Out, Giving Democrats a 50% Shot at Alaska Sweep
Begich's Aug. 31 withdrawal and endorsement of Kreiss-Tomkins pushed the combo market from 40% to 50% in three days, the first time it crossed that threshold.
Murphy's NL Manager of the Year Odds Fall to 30% as Counsell Absorbs
Craig Counsell takes most of the 11 points shed by Weiss, pushing Murphy from 38% to 30% in three days despite Milwaukee holding MLB's best record.
Fleischmann Runs Unopposed as Republican Odds in TN-03 Reach 94%
Five independents split the opposition alongside sole Democrat Anna Golladay, who drew fewer than 28,000 primary votes against Fleischmann's 76,000-plus.
Arraez Hamstring Strain Drops His Batting Title Odds to 32%
A September 1 hamstring strain and a seven-point deficit behind Otto López pushed Arraez's implied probability to a cycle low. He bats .317 with four weeks left.
Chow Polls at 47% But Markets Price Her at 86%: Why the Gap Exists
A 7-point polling lead over Bradford translates to an 86% market price. Incumbency, a split opposition, and a progressive federal tailwind explain the spread.
Nuñez Stolen Base Title Odds Fall 15 Points in 3 Days as Simpson Surges
Nuñez holds 43 steals with 26 days left. Kalshi prices him at 65%, Polymarket at 60%, as Simpson accelerates toward the league lead.
Crude Oil All-Time High Volume Spikes 12x After U.S.-Iran Strikes
$339K traded on Sep 1 at nearly 12x the baseline across 971 trades, yet the September 30 contract held at just 3%.
Betty Gilpin Emmy Odds Fall 12 Points as 'Widow's Bay' Buzz Fails
Gilpin slipped from 42% to 30% in 72 hours for Guest Actress in a Comedy Series. No single rival absorbed the lost ground, leaving the field fragmented.
León Won But Their Apertura 2026 Title Odds Fell to 4%
León's title probability dropped 9 points to 4% in the same window as their first win over Pachuca. Leagues Cup rotation and an unresolved ownership sale are driving the slide.
Republican Odds in MT-01 Jump 8 Points as Forstag's Fundraising Edge
Prediction markets price the Republican Party at 62% in MT-01, up 8 points in 72 hours, even as Forstag holds a $80K fundraising lead over Flint.
Colman Domingo's Chances of Winning Emmy Guest Actor Rise to 50%
Domingo jumped 11 points in three days as bettors price the returning 2022 champion as a near-lock in the show's final season.
Warsh's Jackson Hole Hawkishness Drives 6x Volume Spike in Fed Rate Hike
Kalshi's "Next Fed rate hike?" market logged $130,644 on Aug 31, nearly 6x its 7-day average. Before 2027 climbed to 77%, up 7 points in 24 hours.
Inter Milan Serie A Title Odds Hit 47% Ahead of Napoli Test
Back-to-back wins over Monza and Cagliari lifted Inter from 31% to 47% on Kalshi and Polymarket. Napoli visits San Siro on September 5.
Fjord Hits 68% for Best Picture With No Reviews or Screenings
A 9-point surge in 72 hours on trailer momentum alone. No critic screenings, no festival date, no precursor results have been announced.
Mackenzie Won PA-07 by Half a Point. Markets Now Give Him 18%.
Republican odds in PA-07 dropped from 26% to 18% in three days. Democrat Bob Brooks, a retired firefighter backed by Gov. Shapiro, is now priced at 82%.
John Malkovich's Best Actor Win Odds Jump to 22% in Three Days
Malkovich climbed from 12% to 22% on prediction markets while sitting at 69% to earn a nomination, exposing a pricing gap traders are now closing.
Crow-Armstrong's Hank Aaron Award Odds Jump 39 Points on Two-Homer Game
His August 29 two-homer game against the Reds reversed a slump-driven selloff entirely, pushing him to 74% on Kalshi and Polymarket within 72 hours.
Freeman Falls to Third in Doubles Race as Market Cuts Him to 14%
Freeman sits third with 31 doubles, two behind Burleson and one behind Rafaela. His market probability halved from 29% to 14% in three days.
Sal Stewart's RBI Title Odds Cross 52% as Alvarez's Triple Crown Bid
Stewart leads MLB with 104 RBIs after hitting his 30th homer, but Alvarez trails by 19 with the first major-league Triple Crown since 1956 in reach.
Clarity Act Senate Passage Odds Fall to 26% With Seven Democrats
Kalshi prices passage at 22%, Polymarket at 29%. The September 15 cloture vote is 15 days away and no deal framework has emerged.
Matt Olson's HR Title Odds Fall to 8% as Schwarber and Alvarez Close
Rivals are gaining on Olson's 37-HR lead with 35 games left. His title probability dropped nine points in three days, the steepest single-week move of the race.
FDA Approved JUUL2 for Two Flavors. Crème Brûlée Odds Jumped to 24%.
FDA cleared only tobacco and menthol for JUUL2 on Aug 28. CEO Crosthwaite's promise to seek more flavors pushed Crème Brûlée relaunch odds from 11% to 24% in three days.
Schlittler Hits 69% AL Cy Young Odds as ERA Edge Outweighs Cease's 44-K
Markets price Schlittler's 2.16 ERA and 0.91 WHIP above Cease's 209 strikeouts; he's gained 8 points in three days across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Hawaii Hurricane Odds Hit 17% as Lowell Closes to 855 Miles
Tropical Storm Lowell sits 855 miles from Hilo as of August 31, pushing landfall probability to 17%. Lala's August 15 near-miss started the repricing.
Two Dan Sullivans on Alaska Ballot Push Peltola to 39%
A same-named GOP challenger creates a vote-splitting risk on the November ballot, lifting Peltola's sweep odds 10 points in three days while she holds a $5.5M fundraising edge.
Philippe Hits 36% in 2027 French Election Markets After Debate
Centre-right candidate climbs 10 points in three days as traders reprice a fractured left field following the August 28 multi-candidate debate.
Craig Counsell NL Manager of the Year Odds Fall to 6% Despite 92-Win
Counsell dropped 9 percentage points in three days on Kalshi and Polymarket, even after career win No. 900 and a 2025 Wild Card berth.
Goldman Sachs Reaches 70% Odds to Lead OpenAI IPO After S-1 Syndicate
A 16-point surge in three days reflects co-lead confirmation on OpenAI's confidential S-1 alongside Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan, not outright exclusivity.
Committee Pick Balkcom Leaves Republicans at 32% in NC-11
Republican odds fell 8 points in three days after a party committee replaced Chuck Edwards with state Rep. Jennifer Balkcom, who has never run district-wide.
Anna Kelly Climbs to 26% for Press Secretary Despite Trump's Reported
Kelly gained 8 percentage points in three days. The rise came while NOTUS reported Trump is specifically seeking a male replacement for Leavitt.
The Pitt Hits 18% to Lead Google's Most-Searched TV Show of 2026
Season 3 teaser and Noah Wyle's merger condemnation pushed The Pitt from 8% to 18% with four months left before the December 31 resolution.
No Aspinall Date Sends Gane's 2026 Title Odds Down 12 Points
Gane holds the interim belt after TKO'ing Pereira in June, but sits at 30% with zero confirmed unification fights and four months left in 2026.
Nuñez Leads MLB With 43 Steals But His Title Odds Have Fallen 12 Points
His prediction market probability dropped from 78% to 66% in three days while he was stealing more bases, not fewer. A challenger appears to be closing.
Perry-Trudeau Engagement Odds Fall to 16% With Four Months Left in 2026
Prediction markets cut the implied probability of a Perry-Trudeau engagement by 8 points in three days. The contract is now at its lowest price of the tracking period.
Nehls Wins TX-22 Primary, GOP Chances Rise to 92%
Trump-endorsed Trever Nehls clinched the TX-22 Republican nomination March 3. The Democratic nominee reports $0 cash on hand entering the general.
Song Yadong KOs Umar Nurmagomedov, Lifting Petr Yan to 58% Title
Yan's probability of holding the bantamweight title through 2026 jumped 8 points to 58% after Yadong's KO removed Nurmagomedov from the title queue before year-end.
Fleischmann's TN-03 Odds Drop 9 Points Despite 141-to-1 Cash Edge
Republican odds fell from 95% to 86% in three days. A redrawn map and five independent candidates are the likeliest causes.
Ron Cannan Leads Kelowna Mayor Race 55–33% as Dyas Drops 17 Points
Dyas fell from 52% to 33% in three days on Polymarket and Kalshi. Cannan leads by 22 points with the Sept. 11 nomination deadline approaching.
CAQ Pulls Into Near-Tie With PQ at 28% as Quebec Campaign Launches
CAQ jumps from 17% to 28% on prediction markets in three days, pulling within one point of PQ. Fréchette's economic framing is driving the shift.
CA-48 Toss-Up Poll Cuts California Democratic 48-Seat Odds to 50%
A single Lake Research poll showing von Wilpert up two points collapsed the 48-seat market from 61% to 50% in three days. Desmond holds structural registration advantages.
Tom Begich Made the Alaska Governor Runoff. His Odds Fell to 3%.
Begich finished second among 17 primary candidates with 20.1%, yet markets cut his winning probability from 18% to 3% once a two-Republican general election field locked in.
Luna Rises to 75% in FL-13 After Gray Wins Democratic Primary
Gray's 65% primary win cleared the Democratic field. Luna's price climbed 9 points as market ambiguity dissolved and her incumbency edge came into focus.
Chow's Win Probability Drops 10 Points Despite 8-Point Poll Lead
Prediction markets cut Chow from 88% to 78% as a Pallas Data poll shows 24% of Toronto voters undecided with eight weeks until October 26.
Outer Banks Season 5 Drops to 6% Odds as 'Sacrificio de Sangre' Hits #1
'Sacrificio de Sangre' reached #1 in 37 countries within days of release, cutting Outer Banks S5's implied probability from 38% to 6% in 72 hours.
Cardi B and Stefon Diggs Engagement Falls to 10% After Three Split
A concert hint, post-Super Bowl rumors, and a new romantic link drove the market from 23% to 10% in three days, with four months left to resolve.
Peter Obi Surges to 27% After Kwankwaso Running-Mate Pick
Obi gained 8 percentage points in three days on the NDC ticket, but Atiku Abubakar remains in the race, splitting the anti-Tinubu vote.
Peter Obi Hits 27% for 2027 Nigeria Race After Obi-Kwankwaso Ticket
Obi surged 8 points in three days on a +58.3 net favorability score, but a splintered PDP and smaller parties could recreate Tinubu's 2023 plurality win.
Project Hail Mary's Best Original Score Odds Collapse to 9%
Amazon MGM's biggest hit ever fell 18 points in three days in the Oscar score race. Both Kalshi and Polymarket independently landed near the same floor.
Don Jr. Probe Cuts Unusual Machines Government Stake Odds to 26%
Unusual Machines fell from 45% to 26% in three days after House Democrats opened a 1789 Capital investigation that clouds all Trump-adjacent defense deals.
Stephen A. Smith 2028 Volume Hit $586K in One Day, Price Stayed at 42%
Aug 29 volume was 4x his 7-day average. Smith's price held at 42%.
Inter Milan's Title-Defense Odds Drop 18 Points in Three Days
Prediction markets cut Inter's 2026-27 Serie A probability from 49% to 30% within 72 hours of the Nerazzurri clinching the Scudetto with 87 points.
Claude Opus 5 Max Hits 93% to Win Top AI Model in August on Two
Two benchmark wins in 72 hours pushed the contract from 36% to 93%, with no product launch. Arena code generation and CAD Bench drove the entire move.
Gaethje Sits Out Rest of 2026, Title Odds Rise to 90%
With no fight scheduled before December 31, Kalshi and Polymarket both price Gaethje above 88%. The belt now hinges on UFC politics, not performance.
Leiper Drops to 15% in Ottawa Mayor Markets While Polls Show 25%
Prediction markets cut Leiper 19 points in 72 hours. Sutcliffe holds 36–38% in polls; Lawson may be absorbing the anti-incumbent vote.
Rob Reiner's Emmy Odds Fall 9 Points as Guest Actor Comedy Field
Reiner's posthumous nomination for The Bear has slipped from 52% to 43% in three days, leaving him the frontrunner but no longer a near-certainty.
Crow-Armstrong's Hank Aaron Award Odds Fall 13 Points as Cubs Go 4-8
Cubs' 4-8 stretch pushed Crow-Armstrong's NL Hank Aaron Award probability from 48% to 35%, with no rival absorbing the displaced probability.
Hamadeh's GOP Odds Hit 85% in AZ-08, Up 10 Points in Three Days
Republican chances in AZ-08 climbed from 75% to 85% in 72 hours with no single confirmed catalyst, leaving the Democratic window at roughly one in six.
Garcia Wins TX-35 Primary, but Cook Still Rates District 'Likely R'
Democratic odds rose 12 points after Galindo lost over antisemitism accusations. Garcia now faces Air Force veteran Carlos De La Cruz in November.
Rutinel's CO-08 Odds Fall to 80% as Evans's Incumbency Comes Into Focus
Democratic odds slid 8 points in three days after Munsing's exit shifted trader attention from primary consolidation to the harder task of unseating a first-term Republican.
Cook Drops IA-02 Two Tiers, Putting Lindsay James in Play
Cook moved IA-02 from Likely R to Lean R in one step. Republicans sit at 58% after briefly falling to 42%, their lowest point this cycle.
Stewart Leads MLB With 102 RBIs But Market Has Him at 40%
Stewart's prediction market probability fell from 49% to 40% in three days. He still leads MLB, but five weeks remain and challengers are closing fast.
Clarity Act 'Above 58' Climbs to 40% With No Senate Vote Date Set
The 'Above 58' contract gained 10 percentage points in three days, yet the bill's odds of becoming law by year-end hold at 15% on Polymarket.
Forstag Tied With Flint at 44%, MT-01 Market Falls to Toss-Up
Republican odds dropped 11 points in three days to 50% after a June poll showed a 44-44 tie and Forstag posted a $1.38M fundraising edge.
Hawaii Dodges Two August Storms; Landfall Odds Hit 20%
Markets doubled Hawaii's hurricane landfall probability to 20% after Lala and Moke both grazed the islands in under two weeks. Four months of season remain.
Alvarez Leads All Three Triple Crown Categories, Batting Title at 48%
Alvarez holds the AL lead in average (.322), HRs (36), and RBIs (91) as of Aug. 29, the first player to do so this late in a season since Cabrera in 2012.
Peltola's $14M Edge and Ballot Chaos Push Alaska Dems Sweep to 42%
Three pressures converged in 72 hours: Peltola's 2-to-1 fundraising lead, a same-named GOP ballot rival, and a $1M DSCC ground commitment.
Pat Murphy's NL Manager of the Year Odds Hit 46% After Contract
Murphy jumped from 20% to 46% in three days on Kalshi and Polymarket. BetMGM still lists him at +750, a two-days-stale line that hasn't absorbed the August 27 extension.
Schwarber Hits 40 Home Runs by August, HR Title Odds Rise to 68%
Four 40-HR seasons in five years as a Phillie. The milestone came August 26 off Seattle's Bryan Woo, and traders repriced the market 10 points in three days.
Wild Horse Nine Slides to 68% for Best Picture Nomination as The Odyssey
A 9-point drop in three days, driven by The Odyssey's rise. Wild Horse Nine still ranks third, with its Venice premiere on September 3 the next data point.