Market News & Analysis
Auto-generated, data-driven articles on significant prediction market moves and cross-platform arbitrage opportunities. 1,333 published · page 4 of 14.
Netanyahu October 7 Warning Report Pushes Yashar to 58% in Israel
Yashar gains 8 percentage points in 3 days after a report alleges Netanyahu had advance warning of the October 7 attack. Kalshi: 53%, Polymarket: 62%.
Late Show Swept Creative Arts Emmys but Its Top-Prize Odds Keep Falling
Five craft wins and the end of Oliver's 10-year writing streak haven't reversed The Late Show's slide. Its Outstanding Variety Series probability dropped 8 points to 82%.
Inter Milan's Serie A Title-Defense Odds Cut From 52% to 30%
Markets priced Inter down 22 percentage points in 72 hours despite their 11-point Scudetto win, leaving the rest of the field collectively at 70%.
Shawn Hatosy's Emmy Odds Halved to 12% With 6 Episodes on Record
His probability fell from 22% to 12% in three days. Kalshi and Polymarket agree on the number, ruling out a platform-specific glitch.
Stranger Things Hits 22% for Google Year in Search 2026 Top TV
Kalshi and Polymarket are 10 points apart on the same contract, with the show posting 23.26B streaming minutes despite airing nothing new in 2026.
Texas Senate Volume Spikes 7x as Whistleblower Ad and $10M MAGA Buy Land
Traders pushed $240K through the Texas Senate market on Sep 9, nearly 7x the baseline. A former Paxton aide's endorsement ad and a $10M MAGA Inc. buy both dropped that week.
América's Apertura 2026 Title Odds Fall to 15% After Almada Rebuild
A 10-point drop in three days follows a fourth-place Leagues Cup finish behind Toluca, Monterrey, and León, plus midseason roster overhaul.
2026 House Control Bets Hit $684K in One Day, 10x Normal Volume
Kalshi's 2026 House control market logged $684,315 on Sep 9, nearly 10x its weekly average. Democratic odds held at 85% despite the surge.
Seahawks' Playoff Odds Drop 16 Points After Week 1 Home Deficit
Defending champs trail New England 10-0 at home in Week 1. Playoff qualifier market falls from 68% to 52% in three days, the contract's period low.
Clarity Act 64+ Senate Votes Drop to 12% Before September 15 Cloture
The "Above 64" outcome shed 17 percentage points in three days. Both Kalshi (9%) and Polymarket (14%) agree: Democratic crossover votes have not materialized.
Mulligan Drops 12 Points as Pidgeon Pulls Within 5 at Emmy Lead Actress
Mulligan fell from 44% to 32% in three days. Pidgeon has climbed to 32.5% on Polymarket, turning a settled race into a two-candidate contest.
Cook Downgrades IA-02 to Lean R, James Hits 54% on Prediction Markets
Cook shifted IA-02 from Likely R to Lean R on June 17. Markets moved Democrats 10 points in three days, the first time James has been priced as favorite.
Reynolds' Doubles Title Odds Hit 34% as Stat Sources Clash by 9
Reynolds jumped from 13% to 34% in three days. Baseball Reference shows him tied for first at 36 doubles; StatMuse puts him fourth at 27.
Flávio Bolsonaro Hits 34% as Supreme Court Justices Clash Over Police
A public reversal between two sitting justices over federal police leadership gave Bolsonaro a concrete anti-judiciary talking point. Polls still show Lula ahead at 38%.
Lindstrom's America First Entry Cuts Nebraska GOP Governor Odds to 72%
Republican implied probability dropped 20 points in three days after Lindstrom revived his bid outside the GOP. No public polls exist for the 2026 race.
Once Upon a Time in Harlem Oscar Odds Fall to 14%, Tied for Second
Three days erased 10 points from the frontrunner's lead. It now trails American Doctor at 16% with One in a Million matching it at 14%.
Megan Thee Stallion–Klay Thompson Engagement Market Triples
The 2026 engagement market jumped from 6% to 16% in three days, even as Megan publicly called the breakup painful and no reconciliation has been reported.
Aspinall UFC Title Odds Fall 8 Points With No Fight Date in Sight
Aspinall's year-end title probability dropped from 64% to 56% in three days. No medical clearance, no bout announcement, and the 12-month mark hits in late October.
Figures Tied at 46% in Redrawn AL-02, Yet Markets Price Democrats at 75%
A DCCC poll shows Figures tied at 46% in a GOP-redrawn district. Kalshi prices Democrats at 72%, Polymarket at 78%, up 8 points in three days.
Schwarber Hits 43 Home Runs, Jumps to 69% to Win the 2026 Title
His probability rose 11 points in three days as Crow-Armstrong, two back at 41, failed to close the gap during Schwarber's Phillies homestand.
Stewart Leads MLB With 107 RBIs But His Title Odds Fell 8 Points
Stewart's prediction market probability fell from 65% to 57% in 72 hours despite holding the MLB RBI lead outright and remaining the only player past 100 this season.
DTF St. Louis Hits 91% for Outstanding Limited Series After Six-Emmy
Six Creative Arts wins on Sept. 6 pushed DTF St. Louis from 58% to 91%, covering both supporting acting awards and every major craft category.
'Widow's Bay' Hits 83% for Comedy Series Emmy After 8 Creative Arts Wins
Apple TV+'s horror-comedy leads all 2026 shows with 19 nominations and converted 8 of them into Creative Arts wins before the September 14 main telecast.
Shah Leads AZ-01 Forecasts at 67%, But Bettors Price Him at 80%
Call the Map gives Shah a D+2.9 projected margin; prediction markets have surged 9 points in three days on fundraising and open-seat momentum.
Court Removes Green Party Spoiler Twice, Lifting Brooks to 84% in PA-07
Andrew Tupone's double removal from the PA-07 ballot erased the vote-split risk that had capped Democratic odds at 76%, pushing Brooks to 84% despite a $2M fundraising deficit.
Arraez Rebounds to 53% Batting Title Favorite After Hamstring Scare
A 21-point swing in one week. Arraez trails Alvarez by one average point with 22 games left but leads the prediction market.
TX-28 Markets Drop 10 Points on Democrats Despite Cuellar's 11-Point
Democratic odds fell from 84% to 74% in three days as traders weigh Cuellar's bribery conviction against a neutral poll showing him up 11 over Tijerina.
CDU Berlin Election Odds Fall 15 Points After Ransomware Exposes State
Prediction markets price CDU at 30% to win Berlin's September 20 vote after Rhysida dumped 1.44 million government files, including emergency and water infrastructure data.
Nuñez Leads by 5 Steals as Chisholm's Title Odds Fall to 6%
Nasim Nuñez holds 45 steals to Chisholm's 40, and Kalshi and Polymarket both price Chisholm at 5–6% with 19 days left.
The Social Reckoning's Best Picture Odds Fall 12 Points in 3 Days
No single catalyst explains the slide from 31% to 19%. The drop mirrors a broader repricing as new 2027 contenders absorb market share.
Bennett's NJ-07 Odds Fall 12 Points in 3 Days With No Confirmed Catalyst
Bennett's implied probability fell from 77% to 65% in 72 hours. The district has shed 18 points from its September peak, now its lowest reading this cycle.
Antonelli Wins 2026 Italian GP from 19th, Title Odds Reach 86%
Seven wins and a 66-point lead have prediction markets pricing Antonelli as an 86% favorite, up 15 points in three days. Russell finished second at Monza.
Cardi B Hinted at a Split Days After Diggs Said Engagement Was 'On
The couple publicly reunited two months after the concert split hint. A 2026 engagement market has climbed from 7% to 16%, with Kalshi at 8% and Polymarket at 24%.
Gary Oldman Says Bond Is Cast, and Turner's Odds Fall to 12%
Turner drops 8 points in three days as Oldman's implicit endorsement of co-star Jack Lowden pulls market conviction away from the shortlist frontrunner.
Walt Weiss Is Crashing Pat Murphy's NL Manager of the Year Three-Peat
Murphy's probability fell from 50% to 41% in three days as Weiss and the Braves emerged as frontrunners, narrowing Murphy's edge to its smallest margin of the season.
Schlittler Breaks Yankees Franchise Record, Cy Young Odds Reach 87%
Schlittler's 19 low-run starts broke a mark shared by Guidry, Ford, and Chesbro. His 2.04 ERA and 1.14 road ERA anchor the case.
Giamatti Jumps to 45% for Best Supporting Actor With No Public Catalyst
His win probability climbed 9 points in three days. A separate Kalshi nomination market already prices him at 76%, second only to Sam Rockwell at 85%.
Goldman Sachs Hits 80% to Lead OpenAI's IPO After SpaceX Win
Goldman jumped 8 points in 3 days after locking lead-left on SpaceX while co-underwriting OpenAI's confidential S-1, leaving Morgan Stanley at roughly 15%.
COPE Withdrawal Backfires: Ken Sim Hits 50% in Vancouver Mayor Race
COPE's Allen quit the race to unite the left against Sim. Markets read it as a progressive weakness signal, pushing him up 8 percentage points to 50%.
NY-17 Democratic Odds Drop 11 Points as Lawler's Cash Edge Mounts
Conley sits at 58% on Polymarket, down from 70% in three days, with no public poll released and Lawler holding a $2.4M fundraising lead.
Inter's Serie A Odds Cross 50% After 3-2 Napoli Comeback
Inter's title probability climbed from 29% to 52% in three days. The 3-2 comeback win over Napoli was the catalyst, with Kalshi pricing them at 54%.
Julianne Moore Hits 57% Best Actress Odds With No Precursor Yet
Moore jumped from 28% to 57% in 72 hours on Kalshi and Polymarket. Her nomination probability, 94%, is the highest in the field.
Clarity Act 60-Vote Odds Hit 30%, but Cloture Math Cuts Both Ways
The 'Above 60' outcome climbed from 20% to 30% in three days. A separate Kalshi market puts 94% odds on any Senate vote happening before October 1.
Hargitay's Double Emmy Win Cuts Snook to 15% in Three Days
Snook fell from 23% to 15% after Mariska Hargitay won two Creative Arts Emmys for My Mom Jayne, signaling broad Academy support for a rival project.
Italy's Palestine Recognition Odds Hit 16% as Tajani Sets Conditions
Italy's recognition probability rose from 9% to 16% in three days. Foreign Minister Tajani's July 2026 warning signals the coalition remains split with under four months left.
Wild Horse Nine's Oscar Screenplay Odds Drop 10 Points After Venice
A 13-minute Venice ovation pushed traders to sell, not buy. Wild Horse Nine sits at 32% for Best Original Screenplay with 18 months of competition ahead.
Toluca's Liga MX Apertura 2026 Title Odds Double on Viñas Signing
Toluca's implied probability jumped from 9% to 18% in three days, with a $13.5M striker signing and coaching continuity under Mohamed driving the move.
Progressive Primary Win Cuts Democratic MI-07 Odds to 51%
Lawrence defeated moderate Bridget Brink on August 4, triggering an 8-point market slide. Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato's all rate the seat a toss-up.
Stephen Root Hits 48% to Lead Harrison Ford in Emmy Supporting Comedy
Root surged 12 points in three days to become the narrow favorite, with Ford at 46% and the two candidates splitting 94% of total market probability.
Schwarber at 64%: 42 Homers and Five Weeks Left Narrow the Field
The calendar is doing most of the work. Any challenger now needs roughly twice Schwarber's season pace over 25 to 28 games to close a six-homer gap.
Pillen's Reelection Odds Drop 13 Points in 3 Days as Walz Outraises Him
Walz raised nearly twice what Pillen did last quarter, and a crossover Republican endorsement has pushed his implied probability to 79%.
CA-48 Poll: Von Wilpert Leads Desmond by 2 Points in Redrawn District
Lake Research puts von Wilpert up 2 in a district redrawn 18 points bluer. The 48-seat California House market has climbed to 71% implied probability.
Aspinall Rematch With Gane Takes Shape, Title Odds Jump 8 Points
Aspinall holds the belt after the Abu Dhabi no contest. Bettors moved him from 54% to 62% in three days as Gane becomes the only credible title challenger left.
Hatosy Jumps to 20% for Supporting Actor Emmy After The Pitt's Four
Hatosy surged from 12% to 20% in three days after The Pitt collected four early-ceremony Emmys on September 5, continuing his run from Guest Actor winner in 2025.
DTF St. Louis Hits 80% to Win Emmy for Outstanding Limited Series
A 30-point surge in three days makes DTF St. Louis the heavy favorite, yet Beef holds ~39% on rival platforms despite the gap. Race is not sealed.
De La Cruz Wins TX-35 GOP Runoff, Republican Odds Jump to 46%
Republican probability in TX-35 rose 8 points to 46% after Trump-backed De La Cruz won the GOP runoff. Casar's exit leaves Democrats without an incumbent.
Hurricane Lowell Misses Hawaii; 2026 Landfall Odds Fall to 13%
Lowell's westward track cut implied landfall probability nearly in half in three days, with Kalshi at 12% and Polymarket at 14%.
Hacks Drops 11 Points in Emmy Comedy Odds Despite Record 24 Nominations
Hacks sits at 24% for Outstanding Comedy Series, down from 35% three days ago, as Abbott Elementary absorbs the market shift ahead of the Sept. 14 ceremony.
Evloev Gets UFC 333 Title Shot, Odds Jump to 47%
A confirmed October bout against Volkanovski pushed Evloev from 38% to 47%, collapsing multiple contingencies into one fight.
AfD Berlin Win Odds Double to 18% After Saxony-Anhalt Landslide
AfD's Berlin win probability jumped from 8% to 18% in three days. Party polling in the capital has also nearly doubled since 2023, reaching 18% in a May 2026 INSA survey.
Late Show Sweeps Creative Arts, Surges to 86% Emmy Favorite
A five-category Creative Arts haul, including snapping John Oliver's decade-long writing streak, pushed the Late Show up 20 points in three days.
Arraez Hits 50% to Win Batting Title Despite Trailing Alvarez
Arraez jumped 10 percentage points in 3 days to 50% on Kalshi. Bettors are pricing his contact consistency over Alvarez's one-point lead with 22 games left.
State Department Backs Somalia's Sovereignty, Cutting Somaliland
Two Somaliland presidential visits to Washington this summer produced no formal output, leaving fewer than four months for a reversal before the 2027 deadline.
Oscar Isaac Hits 73% in Emmy Lead Actor Race as Rhys Closes In
Isaac jumped 10 points in 3 days for Lead Actor in a Limited Series. Rhys, a two-time BAFTA winner and former Emmy winner, is the field's strongest rival.
Wittman's VA-01 Odds Fall 9 Points as D+8.1 Headwinds Hit R+4.7 District
Republican implied probability in VA-01 fell from 63% to 54% in 72 hours. A D+8.1 national environment now exceeds the district's R+4.7 structural lean.
Antonelli Hits 87% F1 Title Favorite After Monza Win From 19th
Seven wins in 13 races and a last-to-first drive at Monza push Antonelli's title odds to 87%, with Russell 66 points back in the same car.
AZ-08 Jumps to 83% Republican With No Catalyst and a 17% Democratic Gap
Every major forecaster rates AZ-08 Solid Republican, yet markets still price Democrats at 17%. No polls exist for this race and no challenger has raised meaningful money.
Doug Petno's JPMorgan CEO Odds Fall 12 Points After Co-President Title
Petno dropped from 56% to 43% in three days. Troy Rohrbaugh received an identical Co-President title, turning an expected coronation into a two-candidate race.
Kaitlin Olson Climbs 20 Points, Nearly Ties Betty Gilpin for Emmy
Olson jumped from 26% to 46% in three days on Kalshi and Polymarket, pulling into a near-tie with Gilpin eight days before the September 14 ceremony.
Rob Reiner Drops 9 Points in Emmy Guest Actor Comedy Market
Reiner fell from 43% to 34% in three days. Fox and Goldstein both nominated for Shrinking are now the primary competitive pressure on his posthumous Bear candidacy.
Giamatti Jumps 20 Points in Three Days to Lead Best Supporting Actor
Giamatti rose from 34% to 54% with no confirmed catalyst. Edward Norton leads nomination odds at 96%, the highest in the field.
Crow-Armstrong Hits 86% to Win NL Hank Aaron Award
A 38-point rise since August 22 reflects sustained second-half offense. No competitor holds more than a fraction of the remaining 14%.
The Social Reckoning Drops 8 Points With Zero Bad Reviews
Sorkin's unreleased film falls from 38% to 30% for a Best Picture nomination as locked-in frontrunners claim slots before a single screening.
Klein Entry Cuts Gillingham's Winnipeg Mayor Odds 16 Points in 3 Days
Kevin Klein's Sept. 1 candidacy pushed Gillingham's implied probability from 72% to 56%, turning a clear favourite into a near toss-up with 52 days until voting.
Nuñez Leads Chisholm 45-40 With 3 Weeks Left. Why Only 75%?
A five-steal cushion with under 25 games left makes a collapse historically rare, yet prediction markets still price a 1-in-4 chance Chisholm overtakes him.
Bob Brooks Leads PA-07 at 75% as Mackenzie Faces Structural Deficit
Prediction markets give Brooks a 75% win probability, down from 83% three days ago. Mackenzie holds $1.8M cash on hand and no primary threat.
Inter's Serie A Title Chances Fall to 30% After Dominant Defense
Markets cut Inter from 48% to 30% despite an 11-point Scudetto margin. Five rivals finished within 18 points last season, tightening the 2026-27 race.
Rival's Campaign Pushed Julianne Moore to 52% Best Actress Favorite
Focus Features' push for Inde Navarrette collapsed field ambiguity, lifting Moore 24 points in 72 hours. She now leads at 52% while Navarrette draws heavier nomination volume.
Mensah's 2027 #1 Pick Odds Jump to 18% After Miami's 45-6 Opener
Mensah went from 7% to 18% in three days on Kalshi and Polymarket. He's now the fastest-rising name in early 2027 draft pricing.
Clarity Act Senate Vote Odds Rise to 31% After Lummis Bill Update
Above 55 votes now prices at 31%, up 8 points in three days. No Democratic senator has publicly committed to a yes vote.
Search Traffic Shifts to Talarico as Osborn Drops 9 Points in Sanders
Osborn falls from 28% to 20% over three days as endorsement-intent queries cluster around Texas progressive James Talarico, not Osborn.
Stelson's PA-10 Win Probability Falls 8 Points With No Clear Catalyst
Democratic odds in PA-10 dropped from 85% to 77% in three days. Stelson lost to Perry by 5,100 votes in 2024 and secured the 2026 Democratic nomination.
Wild Horse Nine Hits 50% for Best Original Screenplay After Venice
McDonagh's CIA thriller got zero 2026 Oscar nods but now co-leads the 2027 Best Original Screenplay market after an 8-point surge driven by Venice critic praise.
Imavov Hits 40% UFC Middleweight Title Odds After Chimaev Crashes to 5%
Chimaev's 68-point drop reshuffled the entire middleweight market the night before UFC Paris, pushing Imavov to the top of the field at 40%.
Jeff Kober's Chances of Winning Guest Actor Emmy Double
Kober's implied probability jumped from 9% to 17% in three days, pricing in a rare self-submitted nomination path.
Pat Murphy's NL Manager of the Year Three-Peat Sits at 39%
Back-to-back winner leads MLB in wins, yet markets price his unprecedented third consecutive award below 40%, with Walt Weiss his closest named rival.
Anna Kelly's Press Secretary Odds Fall 8 Points Amid White House Chaos
Kelly dropped from 26% to 18% in three days. A Pentagon resignation, policy infighting, and an insider-trading scandal are rattling the entire appointment field.
Tinubu's 2027 Win Probability Drops 10 Points After APC Landslide
Tinubu fell from 77% to 68% in three days despite an 11M-vote APC primary win, as opposition campaigns open and traders reprice incumbency advantage.
Schlittler's AL Cy Young Odds Hit 76% on a 1.14 Road ERA
A franchise-record Angels start pushed Schlittler's Cy Young probability to 76%, with Kalshi at 74% and Polymarket at 78%.
Lindstrom Ballot Disqualification Pushes Nebraska GOP Governor Odds
Petition fraud knocked the only serious independent off the ballot. Pillen now leads Walz by just 2 points in polls, but markets price Republicans at 92%.
Zendaya's Emmy Odds Fall to 6% With Nine Days to Go
Prediction markets cut Zendaya from 21% to 6% in 72 hours, pricing her three-peat bid as a long shot with no confirmed catalyst for the move.
Cook Moves CA-48 to Lean Democrat After Issa Retirement
Issa's exit and locked-in Prop 50 maps give Democrats a structural edge, with no Republican incumbent to absorb an 18-point partisan shift.
CJ Carr Leads Heisman Market at 12% as Week 1 Volume Doubles
Kalshi's Heisman market hit $44,957 on Sep 4, with Carr at 12% and Manning at 10%, while 60% of probability sits outside the top four candidates.
Philippe's 2027 Election Odds Drop 9 Points as Centrist Split Widens
Philippe fell from 36% to 27% in three days. His rivalry with Attal is fragmenting the centrist bloc, with an August poll now placing Mélenchon in second-round contention.
Left Party Scandal Lifts CDU Win Odds 16 Points in Berlin Election
CDU leads Berlin polls at 21% after the Left Party fell to 19% following an antisemitism scandal. A second poll confirming that gap would firm up CDU's 42% market price.
Sal Stewart Leads MLB in RBIs but His Odds Have Fallen 11 Points
Stewart holds 105 RBIs and still leads the field, but Yordan Alvarez's Triple Crown push has cut Stewart's win probability to 54% in three days.
León's Liga MX Apertura 2026 Title Odds Triple to 14% on Two Wins
León beat Pachuca 1-0 on opening day and crushed Real Salt Lake 3-0 in the Leagues Cup, pushing their Apertura title probability from 4% to 14%.
Colbert Told Emmy Voters to Pick Kimmel, and His Show Dropped 14 Points
The Late Show fell from 87% to 73% after Colbert endorsed Kimmel during the final day of voting. The contract hit a low of 64% before recovering.
Leela Gray Leads Luna 51-46 in First FL-13 Poll of 2026
A House Majority PAC survey put Gray up five points, erasing Luna's 90% market edge to 72% in three days. Gray won her primary just two weeks earlier.
Sam Forstag Hits 39% in MT-01 With No New Polls Behind the Move
Prediction markets have pushed Forstag 12 points higher in three days while structural models hold at 18%. No poll or news event explains the gap.