Market News & Analysis
Auto-generated, data-driven articles on significant prediction market moves and cross-platform arbitrage opportunities. 1,705 published · page 6 of 18.
Likud Jumps 8 Points to 37% as Israeli Opposition Fractures
Likud climbed from 29% to 37% in three days while Eisenkot's Yashar holds 62%. Opposition infighting among Golan, Bennett, and Lieberman is driving the repricing.
India's Ebola Probability Falls to 11% After 11,000 Travelers Screened
Zero detections across nearly 11,000 screened arrivals drove a 21-point drop. The DRC outbreak has now crossed 6,000 confirmed cases.
Vargas Slips to 88% in CA-52 Despite 22-to-1 Fundraising Edge
The 8-point drop over three days traces to a single platform showing 79% while Polymarket holds at 96%, with no polling or scandal behind it.
Norcross Market Odds Fall 9 Points Despite 99% Forecast Consensus
Call the Map rates Norcross at 99.3% with a D+28.4 margin, but his prediction market price fell from 96% to 88% in three days, creating an 11-point model-market gap.
Republicans Privately Retreat From Georgia, Lifting Democrats' Core Four
A Dallas donor slide deck omitted Georgia's GOP nominee entirely. Markets jumped 10 points in three days, with Ossoff now leading Collins in available polls.
SC Senate Blocks Redistricting, Lifting Democratic 2-Seat Odds to 28%
The SC Senate rejected a Trump-backed map redraw on Sept. 22, locking in Clyburn's district and opening a credible path to a second Democratic seat.
Katy Perry Calls Trudeau 'Love of My Life,' Engagement Odds Fall to 14%
Perry's romantic declaration pushed engagement odds down, not up. Bettors now price a proposal before year-end at 14%, with 98 days left on the clock.
PQ Leads Quebec Polls at 27%, Yet Markets Price a 92% Win
Vote-splitting among CAQ, PLQ, and PCQ converts PQ's narrow plurality into a near-certain seat majority under Quebec's first-past-the-post rules.
Trump Endorsement Flags as Liability as Feely Falls to 20% in AZ-01
Feely dropped 10 points in three days on prediction markets. Analysts cite his Trump backing as a risk with independents who register in high numbers across AZ-01.
Ciro Gomes Falls to Underdog as Ceará Poll Shows Dead Heat
An Atlas/Focus survey (Sept. 21) erased Ciro's five-point August lead, putting both candidates at ~48%. Markets moved 14 points in three days.
Chambliss Vaults to 19% After LSU Upset, Junior Class Hits 40%
Ole Miss QB's 363-yard, 3-TD win over No. 7 LSU pushed the Junior class up 8 points; Chambliss posted the steepest individual weekly jump among all tracked candidates.
Moskowitz Hits 70% in FL-25 as School-Safety Ad and J Street Cash Roll
A Parkland-focused TV ad and a $3M J Street commitment drove the 10-point jump. Cook Political Report still calls FL-25 a toss-up.
Utah Is 3-0 With a +118 Margin, Yet Undefeated Odds Fell to 16%
Traders sold Utah's undefeated contract 8 points as Big 12 play opens Sept. 26 at Iowa State, a 10-4 team that won the 2024 Big 12 Championship.
Bohannan Leads IA-01 Polls 40-35 as Markets Price Her at 82%
A July Bullfinch poll gives Bohannan a 5-point lead over Miller-Meeks, and her $700K cash edge has traders pricing her at 82% to flip the seat.
Gillingham Rebounds to 63% as 13-Candidate Field Splits Opposition
Traders reversed a drop to 46% after concluding vote-splitting favors the incumbent. Klein's rocky entry signals no challenger is consolidating.
Hurricane Lowell Hit Hawaii. Why Is the Market at 26%?
Lowell struck Kauai and Lanai in early September, killing two and disabling a critical port. The landfall market still prices YES at only 26%.
Vikings Jump to NFC North Favorites at 33% After 2-0 Division Start
Minnesota beat Green Bay and Chicago to go 2-0 in division play; a Caleb Williams hamstring injury dropped Chicago to last in divisional odds.
Rennes Top 4 Odds Hit 48% the Week They Lost 4-0 to Lyon
PSG sits sixth and Marseille has lost four straight, giving Rennes a 10-point probability jump to 48% despite their worst result of the season.
Michigan Senate Volume Jumps 7x as El-Sayed Unity Push Lifts Odds to 72%
On Sept 22, $194K traded across 1,393 trades, the market's largest single day in 29 sessions, as Democratic consolidation drew fresh trader attention.
Notre Dame CFP Top 4 Chances Hit 60% With No Conference Title Fallback
Notre Dame is the only projected top 4 seed without a conference title game. Kalshi prices them at 64%, Polymarket at 56%.
Jackson Leads Georgia Governor Polls but Bettors Cut His Odds to 33%
Bettors dropped Jackson from 43% to 33% in three days despite a Rasmussen poll showing him up 48%-45%. A $5M labor-settlement story may explain the gap.
RCP Calls Texas Governor Race a Toss-Up as Hinojosa Hits 29%
A ReconMR/Siena poll showing Hinojosa up four points prompted RCP's toss-up call, the first for a Texas governor's race in the modern era.
Ohio State Big Ten Title Odds Fall to 38% After Blowing 20-Point Lead
Buckeyes fell from 50% to 38% in three days after surrendering 24 unanswered Q4 points to No. 4 Texas in a 24-23 road loss.
GOP Sweep Draws 4.4x Normal Volume but Stays at 10%
$886K traded on Republicans Sweep on Sept. 22, 4.4x the prior week's daily average. Sellers absorbed most of the flow; price moved just 2 points.
Meloni's Re-Election Odds Drop 13 Points After School Veil Ban
Prediction markets cut Meloni from 52% to 39% in three days as her coalition polls below 30% among under-35 voters, the fastest-growing share of the 2027 electorate.
Bengals' AFC North Probability Hits 44% After 2-0 Start
Cincinnati's division-winner probability jumped 14 points in three days. The Houston defensive performance, a 20-6 road win, drove most of the repricing.
Wild Horse Nine Climbs to 44% for Best Original Screenplay
McDonagh's script jumps 10 points in three days after a 13-minute Venice ovation and TIFF critical consensus, with La bola negra the nearest threat.
Buccaneers' NFC South Odds Fall to 25% After 0-2 Start
Tampa Bay dropped from 41% to 25% on Kalshi and Polymarket after losing to two sub-.500 opponents. Atlanta is also 0-2, keeping the Bucs alive.
Van Beats Pantoja on Scorecards, Flyweight Title Odds Hit 96%
A unanimous decision at UFC 331 erased the injury-stoppage asterisk from Van's first title win. Kalshi now prices him at 96%, Polymarket at 97%.
Azaroff Endorses Fry, Cutting Allam to 6% in Vancouver Mayor Race
Allam fell 11 points in three days after Azaroff endorsed Fry. Sim also dropped to 34%, the first time he has been priced as an underdog this cycle.
Jeff Leiper's Win Probability Halved in Three Days on Prediction Markets
Leiper fell from 17% to 8% in 72 hours as Ottawa's mayoral race consolidates around Sutcliffe, with no public polling to contradict the market's verdict.
Court Locks GOP Map in MO-02, Cutting Wellman's Odds to 22%
The 8th Circuit blocked a return to old district lines on Sep 21. Wellman's probability fell 8 points in three days; Wagner now holds a ~78% implied edge.
Cash Gap Widens as Lawrence's MI-07 Odds Fall 10 Points
Democratic implied probability slid from 66% to 56% in three days. Barrett held $2.8M and no primary opponents while Lawrence survived a three-way contest.
Sam Rockwell's Best Supporting Actor 2027 Odds Quadruple to 16%
Rockwell's implied probability jumped from 4% to 16% in three days with no confirmed project. His 2018 win in the same category is the likely anchor for the move.
Vikings Hit 56% Playoff Odds at 2-0, but a #17 Power Ranking Says
Minnesota's playoff probability rose 9 points to 56% after a 9-3 win over Chicago, yet all four NFC North teams carry playoff-caliber grades.
Haaland Hits 58% to Crack Google's Top 5 Most Searched in 2026
A buzz cut, a tribute to Norway's King Harald V, and World Cup meme traffic pushed Haaland's implied probability up 12 percentage points in three days.
PA-03 Democratic Nominee Hits 96% as No GOP Challenger Emerges
The contract climbed 8 points in three days. Cook rates the seat safe Democratic and no Republican has filed a credible challenge for November 2026.
Saliba Injury Drops Arsenal's Premier League Title Odds From 56% to 48%
A 3-0 Brighton defeat and Saliba's World Cup back injury hit Arsenal harder than four wins gained. Manchester City close to within 9 points.
Sánchez Holds 95% Odds in CA-41 Despite R+3 Lean
Prediction markets price Linda Sánchez at 95% in CA-41. Republican Mitch Clemmons has raised $2,000 total, giving Sánchez an 800-to-1 fundraising edge.
Democrat in LA-05 Calls Win 'Possible' as GOP Hits 96%
Cook rates LA-05 'Solid R' and Kalshi prices the GOP at 98%. The Democratic endorsee framed a win as something he merely believes is possible.
Tsarukyan Sits at 13% for UFC Lightweight Title After UFC 331 KO
Tsarukyan jumped from 3% to 13% after knocking out Ruffy at UFC 331, but Gaethje may sidestep him for a Topuria rematch, capping the odds climb.
Ethiopia Ebola Odds Fall 18 Points as DRC Cases Top 200
Ethiopia dropped from 54% to 36% in three days. DRC cases crossed 200 per week while the deployed vaccine has no proven efficacy against the circulating Bundibugyo strain.
Strickland Climbs to 66% After Imavov Named Title Challenger
Locking in Imavov collapsed a field of hypothetical opponents into one priceable matchup, pushing Strickland up 13 points in 72 hours.
Cooke's WI-03 Win Odds Drop 10 Points Despite $814K Fundraising Lead
Democrat probability fell from 82% to 72% in three days. Van Orden's incumbency and the district's rightward trend are repricing the race.
PQ Hits 92% in Markets Despite a Four-Way Race in Quebec Polls
PQ leads Quebec polls at 27% with CAQ and PLQ at 23% each. Markets price a PQ win at 92%, up 9 points in three days.
Ohio Senate Special Election Sees 6x Volume Spike as Brown Leads Husted
Trading hit $341K on Sept. 21, six times the daily baseline. Brown holds a 19-point edge, with 836 trades confirming broad participation across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Brewers Clinch First 2026 Division Title, Murphy's Three-Peat Odds Hit
Milwaukee's division clinch pushed Murphy's NL Manager of the Year probability up 14 points in three days. Weiss sits at 17% as the Braves crater to 39-62.
The Black Ball Drops to 10% as The Odyssey Claims 58% by Default
No news triggered the fall. The Black Ball lost 9 percentage points in three days as The Odyssey absorbed share across the entire Best Original Score field.
Tennessee's Undefeated Odds Fall to 5% Despite 3-0 Start
Vols dropped from 28% to 5% in three days. Wins over Furman and Kennesaw State moved the needle nowhere; Texas and Alabama did.
Cannan Rebounds to 56% in Kelowna Mayor Race After Debate Dip
Cannan clawed back 11 points in under a week after a 13-point post-debate drop, leaving him the frontrunner with four weeks until the October 17 vote.
Mahomes Goes 2-0 After Knee Surgery, Chiefs AFC West Odds Hit 60%
Kansas City climbed from 52% to 60% on Kalshi and Polymarket after Mahomes posted 566 yards and 5 TDs, with Kenneth Walker adding 307 rushing yards across two games.
OH-06 Hits 96%: What Does Rulli's $1.1M-to-$1K Edge Tell Us?
No public polls exist for OH-06. Rulli's 99-in-100 forecast rating rests on an R+16 partisan lean and a 1,000-to-1 fundraising gap.
Bolsonaro Hits 47% in Markets as Lula's Welfare Hike Reads as Panic
Polls still show Lula up 38%-33%, but bettors moved Bolsonaro 8 points in 72 hours after a welfare hike, a Rio crime pilot, and a Supreme Court delay.
Ethereum $4,000 Odds Jump 8 Points After Ceiling Analysis
ETH trades at $2,722, needing a 47% rally to hit $4,000. A CryptoCompass stress-test of Standard Chartered's forecast triggered the repricing.
Moskowitz Hits 68% in FL-25 as School-Safety Ad Counters Trump
FL-25 Democratic odds climbed 8 points in 3 days. J Street's $3M spend and Moskowitz's Parkland-tied TV ad are outweighing Trump's Singer endorsement.
Katy Perry Called Trudeau 'the Love of My Life,' but Engagement Odds
Perry's September 2 People interview moved markets 12 points in three days. Bettors still price a 75% chance no proposal arrives before December 31.
LSU SEC Title Odds Halved to 8% After Loss to Kiffin's Former Team
A 32-24 ranked loss at Ole Miss on September 19 cut LSU's SEC title probability from 16% to 8%, with Kalshi pricing the Tigers at 7% and Polymarket at 8%.
Elmano Cuts Ciro's Ceará Lead From 19 to 5 Points in Five Weeks
Three Sept. 18 polls show Elmano at 40-42%, up from 33% in August. Ciro's market odds fell from 63% to 52% in three days.
Kreiss-Tomkins Hits 84% in Alaska Governor Race as Begich Drops Out
Begich's dropout and endorsement pushed JKT to 84%, but an RCV referendum on the same ballot could erase the consolidation advantage markets are pricing in.
Vikings Surge to 34% NFC North Favorite After Caleb Williams Carted Off
Back-to-back wins over Green Bay and Chicago pushed Minnesota to division favorite; Williams left Sunday's 9-3 loss on a cart with a hamstring injury.
KY-02: Guthrie's 627-to-1 Fundraising Edge Prices Republican Win at 96%
Wingfield has raised $7,500 against Guthrie's $4.7M. Kalshi prices a Republican win at 98%, Polymarket at 94%, with margin-of-victory contracts pointing to a 35-plus-point blowout.
49ers' NFC West Odds Hit 43% After 27-7 Rout of Rams
San Francisco's division probability rose 9 points in three days after the Rams blowout, even as a receiver injury and owner Jed York's arrest cloud the outlook.
Mary Miller at 96% in IL-15: What's Behind the 9-Point Market Climb
Prediction markets climbed 9 points to 96% for Miller, with Call the Map projecting a 30-point margin and no DCCC money entering the race.
IL-04 Markets Hit 97% as Forecasters Peg Garcia at 99.4%
Prediction markets jumped 9 points in three days, still trailing forecasters by 2.4 points. Garcia leads Castillo by 19 points in the only public poll.
Bengals' AFC North Probability Jumps to 45%, Matching Baltimore
Cincinnati climbed 10 percentage points in 72 hours. Kalshi shows 44% and Polymarket shows 46%, erasing what had been a clear Ravens lead.
Falcons' NFC South Odds Fall to 7% After 34-3 Panthers Blowout
Atlanta is 0-2 with a combined scoring margin of minus-38. Tua Tagovailoa is the franchise's sixth different starting QB in six seasons.
Van Beats Pantoja in Rematch, Flyweight Title Odds Rise to 86%
Van's dominant UFC 331 win (49-46, 49-47, 50-45) pushed his year-end title probability from 54% to 86%, with Kalshi at 80% and Polymarket at 93%.
Digger's Best Original Screenplay Odds Fall to 20% With No Precursor
The 30% recovery has reversed over three days with zero precursor wins awarded in the category and no confirmed catalyst driving the move.
Messmer Hits 97% in IN-08 as Markets Correct an Underpriced Safe Seat
An 8-point jump in three days reflects district math and a primary opponent who won 6% of the vote, not a new development. No catalyst triggered the move.
Smucker Leads PA-11 at 98.3% While Markets Sit at 96%
Call the Map gives Lloyd Smucker a 98.3% win probability and R+16 margin. Prediction markets price a GOP win at 96%, trailing by two points.
Bills AFC East Probability Jumps 8 Points Before 2-0 Patriots Showdown
Buffalo sits at 72% on Kalshi and Polymarket ahead of Sunday's only unbeaten-vs.-unbeaten divisional matchup, with no roster move driving the shift.
Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet Engagement Odds Hit 20% After World
Odds climbed 8 percentage points in three days following the couple's joint appearance at the 2026 World Cup Final, with Kalshi at 27% and Polymarket at 12%.
Buckhout's NC-01 Odds Fall to 38%, Erasing Most of Her Primary Bounce
Republican odds in NC-01 dropped from 48% to 38% in three days. Davis remains the narrow favorite as no public polls have emerged.
Democrats' Alaska Sweep Odds Hit 68% After Begich Exits Governor Race
Tom Begich's withdrawal unified the Democratic gubernatorial ticket behind Kreiss-Tomkins, pushing combo sweep odds up 14 percentage points in three days to a cycle high.
Fernández's NM-03 Market Price Jumps 8 Points in 3 Days
Markets now price the Democratic hold at 94%, closing the gap with Call the Map's 99-in-100 forecast after traders dismissed Zamora's stock-disclosure attack ad.
Foxx at 88% in NC-05 While Forecasters Say 97%
The market jumped 9 points to 88% but still trails forecasters' 96.5% call. Foxx holds a 34-to-1 cash edge over her Democratic challenger.
FL-24 Hits 96%: Why Gilbert's Odds May Still Be Too Low
FL-24 jumped 8 percentage points in 3 days. The move corrected mispricing in a D+50 seat Cook rates Solid D with no competitive challenger.
Tsarukyan's Title Odds Triple After First-Round KO at UFC 331
His implied probability rose from 5% to 14% in three days. Topuria's 2027 return leaves Tsarukyan as Gaethje's most credible 2026 challenger.
Morgan Stanley Hits 23% in OpenAI IPO Market as Timing Risk Grows
Morgan Stanley gained 8 percentage points in three days. Its rise tracks IPO delay risk, not a real contest for Goldman's left-lead position.
Malkovich Jumps to Oscar Best Actor Frontrunner After Venice Win
His Venice Best Actor prize for 'Wild Horse Nine' pushed him from 24% to 36% in three days. He has never won an Oscar.
Republican Win Probability in IN-03 Reaches 97% With No Democratic
Prediction markets price Indiana's 3rd District at 97% Republican, up 9 points from an 88% period low, as no Democratic candidate has filed.
Hawaii Hit by Two Hurricanes in 2026, Market Still Prices 14%
The Atlantic confirms two hurricane strikes on Hawaii this year. The prediction market implies an 86% chance it hasn't happened, with Kalshi at 11% and Polymarket at 16%.
Pete Fry Hits 65% After Azaroff Backs Him in Vancouver Mayor Race
Fry surged 32 percentage points after OneCity's Azaroff endorsed him, yet polls still show Ken Sim leading or tied with 34% of voters undecided.
Braves at 39-62 Push Weiss's NL Manager of the Year Odds to 17%
Murphy's Brewers clinched the first division title in baseball, tightening the three-peat narrative that is pulling traders away from Weiss contracts.
Brooks Leads Mackenzie 47-43 in PA-07's Only Poll
PA-07 prediction markets jumped 8 points toward Brooks in 3 days. Mackenzie's $2.94M cash advantage is the strongest counter-signal.
Arsenal Title Odds Fall 9 Points After Brighton Loss and Saliba Injury
Arsenal dropped from 56% to 47% in 72 hours after a 3-0 defeat at Brighton. Saliba's back injury, sustained at the World Cup, has no return date.
Masterson Hits 70% in Kansas Governor Markets Despite Tied Poll
Markets jumped 11 points in three days after a State Fair debate on data centers. The last public poll, taken before the debate, had Holscher up 47-46.
Texas Tech Undefeated Odds Hit 32% Despite Losing QB to NCAA Probe
Red Raiders are now the prediction market favorite for a 2026 undefeated season at 32%, up 9 points in three days, even after QB Brendan Sorsby's departure.
Harlem Doc Hits 24% Oscar Odds After Library of Congress Prize
The $200,000 Lavine/Ken Burns Prize pushed Once Upon a Time in Harlem from 16% to 24% in three days, its highest market position since Sundance.
Glenn Thompson's PA-15 Odds Fall 9 Points With No Public Catalyst
Republican odds in PA-15 slid from 96% to 87% in three days. Kalshi and Polymarket now show a 14-point spread, suggesting the sell-off is platform-specific.
Scalise Caps GOP at 225 Seats as Blue Tsunami Odds Hit 48%
Mace predicts a midterm 'bloodbath' for Republicans as seven House members break with Trump on Iran. Dual-chamber sweep odds up 8 points in three days.
Trump Nobel Peace Prize Volume Doubles With 3 Weeks to Announcement
Daily volume hit $98,631 on Sep 18, more than double the $45,326 baseline. Trump's composite probability held flat at 7%, though platform prices range from 2% to 20%.
The Odyssey Hits 58% for Best Original Score With No Rival in Sight
An 8-point climb in 3 days reflects a competitive vacuum, not a campaign breakthrough. Fall contenders haven't been heard yet.
Begich Endorses Kreiss-Tomkins, Pushing Alaska Governor Odds to 76%
Tom Begich dropped out and endorsed Kreiss-Tomkins on August 31, ending Democratic vote-splitting. Kreiss-Tomkins led the August 18 primary with 21.6%.
Sununu NH Senate Race Draws 10x Volume Spike, Still Priced at 19%
Traders put $153K into this market on Sept 18 vs. a $14K daily average. Pappas holds 82% despite a toss-up reclassification.
Rays Clinch First AL Playoff Spot, Lead Pennant Market at 27%
Tampa Bay's clinch triggered an 11pp surge to 27%, with Kalshi at 28% and Polymarket at 26%. The Yankees' 19-8 run since Aug. 16 and a remaining head-to-head series keep the race open.
Fed January 2027 Hike Odds Hit 34% After Warsh Defies Trump
Polymarket and Kalshi both price a 1-in-3 chance of another Fed hike in January 2027, up 12 points in three days, with inflation still at 3.3%.
Randy Fine's FL-06 Odds Fall 8 Points Despite $3.9M War Chest
Republican odds in FL-06 fell from 96% to 88% in three days. Kalshi prices the seat at 81% while Polymarket sits at 94%, a 13-point platform gap.
Pantoja Enters UFC 331 as 37% Underdog to Reclaim Flyweight Belt
Pantoja's implied probability fell 12 points in three days, driven by a nine-month injury layoff and Van's successful title defense in May.
Digger Rebounds to 30% for Best Original Screenplay
Digger climbed from 7% to 30%, overtaking The Debut at 28% in a race where no film has earned a single precursor win and Kalshi prices Digger at 52% while Polymarket holds it at 8%.