Market News & Analysis
Auto-generated, data-driven articles on significant prediction market moves and cross-platform arbitrage opportunities. 1,334 published · page 7 of 14.
Markey Hits 93% After Poll Shows 28-Point Lead Over Moulton
A UMass Amherst/WCVB poll showing Markey up 60-32 over Moulton pushed his probability up 9 points in 3 days. Kalshi sits at 92%, PredictIt at 95%.
Crow-Armstrong Hits 48% in NL Hank Aaron Award After MVP-Caliber Run
Crow-Armstrong jumped +29pp to 48% in three days, now priced above the entire NL field combined. Ohtani is the last serious challenger.
Democrats Fall to 34% in CO-03 as Prediction Markets Reprice the Race
Democrats slid 9 points to 34% in CO-03 prediction markets over three days. Kalshi sits at 31%, Polymarket at 38%, a 7-point platform gap.
Walt Weiss NL Manager of the Year Odds Fall 15 Points to 35%
No news catalyst triggered the slide. Weiss still leads at 35%, but Pat Murphy and Craig Counsell are now within range.
Ernie Clement Ties for MLB Doubles Lead, Odds Jump to 26%
Clement's three-way tie at 27 doubles pushed his implied probability from 6% to 26% in three days, with Devers and Freeman sharing the lead.
Begich Primary Win and Schultz Exit Push Republican Odds to 82%
Republican implied probability rose 10 points in three days. Begich led with 48% in the primary while Schultz dropped out and endorsed independent Bill Hill.
Scott Jennings Hits 32% After Secret Meetings With Susie Wiles
Jennings rose from 16% to 32% in three days. The jump followed Alina Habba's public denial and reports of Wiles-backed dinners in Washington.
Tom Pelphrey Hits 46% in Emmy Supporting Actor Race After 12-Point Surge
Pelphrey's price climbed from 34% to 46% in 72 hours with no confirmed catalyst, while Kalshi and Polymarket remain seven points apart on fair value.
Julian Sayin's Odds to Go #1 Overall in 2027 NFL Draft Fall to 6%
Sayin fell 34 percentage points in 3 days as analyst commentary shifted toward Dante Moore and Arch Manning in early 2027 QB rankings.
2026 Emmy Predictions: Carey Mulligan Leads at 49%
Carey Mulligan leads the 2026 limited-series lead actress market near 49%, ahead of Sarah Snook near 25% before final voting closes.
Alcaraz US Open Odds Jump 7 Points to 33% After Sinner Exit
Carlos Alcaraz is priced near 33% to win the 2026 US Open after Jannik Sinner's official withdrawal. Alexander Zverev follows near 21%.
2027 Oscar Best Actor Predictions Put Gosling at 57%
Ryan Gosling has a market-implied 57% chance of receiving a 2027 Best Actor nomination for Project Hail Mary.
Ballon d'Or 2026 Odds Put Harry Kane at 63%
Harry Kane is priced near 63% across four prediction markets after winning the 2025-26 European Golden Shoe with 36 Bundesliga goals.
Netflix Top 10: The Last House at 93% for Global No. 2
The Last House is priced near 93% to rank No. 2 on Netflix's Aug. 25 global movie chart after leading the latest official list.
Mahomes Ankle Sprain Drops Week 1 Starting Probability to 73%
A practice ankle sprain pushed Mahomes' Week 1 probability down 18 points, layered on top of an ACL rehab he began eight months ago.
Tom Dyas Drops to 21% in Kelowna Mayor Race After 12-Point Slide
Dyas's re-election odds fell from 32% to 21% in three days on Kalshi and Polymarket, with the September 11 nomination deadline approaching.
Balkcom Replaces Edwards in NC-11, GOP Climbs to 32%
Jennifer Balkcom enters NC-11 after Chuck Edwards exits over ethics censure. Republicans trail Democrat Jamie Ager but have gained 8 points in three days.
Rand Paul's Clarity Act Yes Odds Jump 17 Points to 28%
Paul gained 17pp in three days with no public statement on the bill. Kalshi holds him at 11% while Polymarket prices him at 45%.
Treg Taylor Drops to 2% After Finishing Fifth in Alaska Primary
Taylor missed the top-four cutoff on August 18, placing fifth with 7.6% of the vote. Markets repriced him from 29% to 2% within hours.
Kreiss-Tomkins Jumps to 27% After Advancing Alaska Primary
The five-term Sitka Democrat cleared the top-four cutoff with 21.6% of the primary vote, pushing his win probability from 3% to 27% in three days.
Yashar Reaches 45% in Israel Election Odds After 26-Seat Poll
Yashar leads a new Israel election poll by 26 Knesset seats to Likud's 20, while prediction markets price Yashar near 45%.
Die Linke at 39% in Berlin Election Odds as Polls Tighten
Die Linke and the CDU are effectively tied in Berlin election polls and prediction markets, with Linke's live win odds near 39%.
PQ Holds 72% Quebec Election Odds as Poll Lead Persists
The Parti Quebecois leads recent Quebec election polls with 30% to 34% support, while prediction markets put its win probability near 72%.
Sutcliffe Holds 65% Ottawa Mayor Odds as Poll Shows Wide Lead
Mark Sutcliffe is priced near 65% to win Ottawa's 2026 mayoral election, while a citywide poll gives him 54% among decided voters.
Pete Fry Reaches 29% in Vancouver Mayor Odds, Tied for Second
Pete Fry is tied for second in a Vancouver mayor poll and priced near 29% to win, behind incumbent Ken Sim but ahead of Kareem Allam in markets.
BOJ September Rate Hike Odds Hit 86% After Internal Leak
Bank of Japan sources confirmed a September hike is under active consideration, pushing 25 bps increase odds 11 points higher in three days to 86%.
UTC Cajamarca Title Odds Slide to 40% After Sanctions and Defeat
UTC Cajamarca fell 8 percentage points in three days. A five-point deduction, foreign-player ban, coaching change, and 1-0 loss to Alianza Lima drove the drop.
Democrats' California 47-Seat Chances Halved After Progressive Primary
The 47-seat outcome dropped from 24% to 12% in three days. Randy Villegas's CA-22 primary win over a moderate Democrat is cited as a key driver.
Ethereum Below $2,500 Odds Hit 42% as ETH Stalls Near $1,625
The bearish ETH outcome jumped 18pp in three days. ETH needs a 54% rally in roughly four months to escape the bracket.
Alvarez Drops to 36% in Batting Title Market Despite MLB Lead
Alvarez fell 11 percentage points in three days on Pro Baseball Batting Average Leader markets. He still holds MLB's top average at .322, eight points clear of Arraez.
Trump Crypto Summit Cuts Bitcoin Sub-$55K Odds to 23% for 2026
BTC reclaimed $72K after Trump's White House meeting and Clarity Act push, pulling sub-$55K probability down 11 points to 23% across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Markey Hits 93% After Poll Shows 28-Point Lead Over Moulton
A UMass Amherst survey of 445 likely voters puts Markey at 60% to Moulton's 32%, with just 7% undecided and 11 days until the Sept. 1 primary.
Crow-Armstrong NL Hank Aaron Award Odds Jump to 48% in Three Days
Cubs center fielder gains 29 percentage points in 72 hours, now trading at 48% on Polymarket and 49% on Kalshi with Ohtani as his closest rival.
Sinner's US Open Odds Fall 16 Points After Knee Treatment in Turin
Shockwave therapy on Sinner's right knee pushed his win probability from 49% to 33% in three days. His camp says he travels only if fully recovered.
Walt Weiss Drops to 35% in NL Manager of the Year Race
Weiss fell 15 points in 3 days as the Braves stumbled in August, including a 6-4 loss to Colorado. His frontrunner status has evaporated.
Peltola Tops Sullivan in Primary, Pushing Alaska Split-Ticket Odds
Peltola's 48%-to-43% primary lead over a two-term incumbent pushed the Republican Gov, Democratic Senate combo from 12% to 21%. Kalshi and Polymarket are 10 points apart.
Republican Odds in IA-01 Jump to 32% as Polls Show 4.5-Point Gap
GOP implied probability climbed 8 points in three days to 32%. Bohannan leads polling averages 41.5% to 37.0% but Miller-Meeks has a fundraising edge.
Ernie Clement's Doubles Title Odds Crash to 6% Despite AL Lead
Clement dropped 18 percentage points in 3 days on prediction markets, now priced at 6% on Kalshi despite tying for the AL doubles lead with 27.
California Governor Race Volume Triples While Hilton Holds at 5%
$127K traded on Aug 19, nearly 4x the weekly baseline. Becerra holds at 94% as the market enters its 30th day.
Nasim Nuñez Hits 74% in MLB Steals Title Market After +9pp Surge
A 10-steal lead over Bobby Witt Jr. pushed Nuñez's implied probability to 74%, up from 52% at his season low.
Republican Chances in Alaska House Race Jump to 82% After Primary
Alaska's August 18 primary crystallized the field, pushing Republican implied probability up 10 points in three days. Kalshi sits at 80%, Polymarket at 85%.
Julian Sayin's 2027 NFL Draft #1 Odds Crash From 38% to 6%
Sayin shed 32 percentage points in 72 hours with no confirmed public catalyst. Kalshi prices him at 4%, Polymarket at 9%.
Anna Kelly Drops to 12% as Jennings and Habba Pull Ahead
Kelly shed 17 points in three days on Kalshi and Polymarket as Spicer's comments on personal rapport with Trump shifted trader attention to Habba and Jennings.
Justin Fields Hits 24% to Start Week 1 as Mahomes' ACL Timeline Blurs
Fields gained 17 percentage points in three days amid closed Chiefs camp sessions and no public update on Mahomes' practice status.
Tom Dyas Kelowna Mayor Odds Drop 16 Points to 23%
Dyas fell 16 points in three days across both Kalshi and Polymarket. Wildfire fallout and a crowded field may be repricing the incumbent.
Democratic Chances in CO-03 Drop 12 Points as Romero Faces Hurd
Prediction markets repriced CO-03 from 46% to 33% in three days. The R+20 district favors incumbent Republican Jeff Hurd heading into November.
Lawrence Win Drives Republican Odds in MI-07 to 38%
Will Lawrence's Democratic Socialist primary win handed Barrett an opening. Republican odds climbed 12 points in three days, now sitting at 38%.
Chuck Edwards Exit Sends NC-11 GOP Odds to 30%
Republican odds in NC-11 fell 12 points in three days. The party has gone two weeks since Edwards withdrew without naming a replacement candidate.
Rand Paul Drops 20 Points on Clarity Act as Regulatory Turf Wars
Paul fell from 50% to 30% in three days as the SEC canceled its crypto vote and the CFTC drew a 23-senator rebuke over jurisdictional overreach.
Kreiss-Tomkins Jumps to 47% After Advancing in Alaska Primary
The former Sitka legislator cleared the August 18 top-four cutoff, converting speculative candidacy into confirmed general-election status and triggering a +40pp repricing.
Tom Begich Falls 34 Points to 20% After Alaska Primary
Begich fell from 53% to 20% in three days after the August 18 nonpartisan primary. Kalshi and Polymarket now agree he is a long shot.
Republicans Sweep Stuck at 12% as Democrats Hold 8-Point Ballot Lead
The GOP sweep scenario sits at the bottom of the Balance of Power market. A $13.7M NRCC cash edge and redistricting gains have not moved the needle.
Democrats Climb to 49% as Senate Control Volume Hits 5x Baseline
$238K traded on Aug 17, five times the weekly baseline. Democrats gained 1 percentage point while Republicans hold a 56% composite lead.
Andrew Yang 2028 Odds Fall 10 Points as Volume Hits 9.4x Baseline
Yang's contract drew $104K in a single day on Kalshi and Polymarket, with 10 of those trades accounting for $101K of the total.
Djokovic US Open Volume Surges 6x After Cincinnati Loss and Illness
$251,932 traded on Djokovic's US Open contract Aug 17, six times the weekly average. His price held at 11% despite 993 trades.
Chuck Edwards Ethics Exit Collapses NC-11 Republican Odds to 29%
Republican Party falls 12 points to 29% in NC-11 after Edwards withdraws over ethics censure, with state Rep. Jennifer Balkcom selected as replacement nominee on August 10.
Texas CFB Championship Volume Spikes 3.36× as Season Opener Nears
Trading on the Kalshi national title market hit $86,917 on Aug. 16, more than triple the seven-day average, with Texas holding steady at 12%.
Ballon d'Or 2026 Volume Doubles on Aug 15 as Mbappé Holds at 8%
$154,792 traded on Aug 15, more than double the seven-day baseline of $67,775. Mbappé unchanged at 8%, well behind Kane (62%) and Lamine Yamal (18%).
2026 Brazil Election Volume Hits 2.7x Baseline on Aug 15
August 15 saw $354,689 traded across Polymarket and Kalshi, nearly triple the seven-day average. Lula holds 64%; Santos sits at 6%.
UTC Cajamarca Hits 56% in Liga 1 Peru Markets Despite New FPF Sanction
UTC Cajamarca jumped +11pp in three days to 56% in prediction markets; the FPF imposed an additional three-point deduction and signing ban on August 15, leaving the club last in the accumulated table.
Yordan Alvarez Hits 31% in Tight MLB Home Run Race
Alvarez holds 36 HRs, trailing Schwarber's MLB-leading 37, and jumped +10pp in three days on Kalshi and Polymarket, which now price him identically at 30% and 32%.
GOP Sits at 56% in MT-01 House Race
An 8-point drop in three days reflects Seth Bodnar's independent bid creating a three-way vote split in a district Trump carried by double digits.
Osborn Falls to 29% for Sanders Endorsement
Osborn shed 15 points in 72 hours despite new progressive endorsements. Kalshi prices him at 37%, Polymarket at 21%, suggesting a rival surge drove the move.
Schwartzel Drops to 12% in FL-19 After 29pp
Trump's endorsement of Catalina Lauf triggered a 29-point wipeout for the self-funded frontrunner, leaving him at 12% three days before the primary.
Mahomes at 76% to Start Week 1
Prediction markets dropped 15 points in three days after Reid's positive camp report. Kalshi and Polymarket diverge by 31 points on the same question.
Schlittler Reaches 62% for AL Cy Young
Skubal's elbow surgery removed the poll leader; Schlittler now holds 62% on both Kalshi and Polymarket, up 8pp in three days.
Dune Part Three Score Odds Fall to 14%
Göransson's 2026 Oscar win for Sinners triggers a 9pp drop in Dune: Part Three's Best Original Score odds, as no composer has won back-to-back since 1972.
Democrats Fall to 48% in TX-15
An 8-point drop in three days with no news catalyst. De La Cruz won by 57% in 2024 and Ada Cuellar's exit left Democrats with Bobby Pulido as nominee.
WA-04 GOP Retention Sits at 94%
Republican odds jumped 13 points in three days as the market re-anchored to district fundamentals. The lone Democrat has raised $63.8K versus McKinney's $981.8K.
Begich Hits 53% in Alaska Gov Race
A 25pp surge prices in primary certainty, but head-to-head polls show Begich tied 50-50 with Dahlstrom in the general.
Tiffany Drops to 24% in Wisconsin Gov Race
Tiffany fell 36pp in three days after Crowley won the Democratic primary by ~3,000 votes, reversing markets that had priced Republicans at 60%.
Norton's Oscar Odds Fall to 6%
Edward Norton's Best Supporting Actor probability dropped from 14% to 6% in three days, with Kalshi at 8% and Polymarket at 4% reflecting bettor disagreement.
Ford Drops to 42% in Nevada Gov Race
Aaron Ford's odds fell 9 points in 72 hours despite a clean primary win. Markets now price Lombardo as a 58% favorite heading into the general.
Turturro at 26% for Best Actor Nomination
A 12pp surge in 3 days prices a zero-time Oscar nominee as a real contender. Kalshi sits at 19% while Polymarket has him at 33%.
Kansas GOP Governor Odds Fall to 71%
Seven Republicans remain despite Trump's Masterson endorsement. Kalshi prices GOP at 64%, Polymarket at 69%, PredictIt at 81%, a 17-point cross-platform gap.
Begich Now Favored to Win Alaska Governor
Begich jumped from 24% to 52% in 72 hours across Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt, despite holding just $214,957 cash on hand.
GOP Leads PA-08 at 34%, Up 11pp in 72 Hours
Republican odds in PA-08 jumped from 24% to 34% in three days. Kalshi sits at 29% while Polymarket prices the race at 40%.
Chalamet-Jenner Engagement Market Hits 34%
Cohabitation reports and Chalamet's public "partner of three years" declaration pushed the market 11 points in 72 hours. Kalshi sits at 21%, Polymarket at 48%.
Goldman Sachs Leads OpenAI IPO at 82%
Goldman jumped 23pp in three days after its name appeared in OpenAI's confidential S-1 filing. The remaining 18% reflects IPO timing and syndicate ambiguity.
Democrats Favored at 62% to Win TX-35
Markets price Democrats at 62% in a district Trump won by 10 points. Kalshi sits at 73%, Polymarket at 52%, a 21-point platform spread.
Clarity Act 'Above 58' Rises to 43%
Seven Senate Democrats rejected the July 22 draft three weeks ago, yet traders bid the supermajority bracket up 10 points in three days. No confirmed catalyst.
Cavill Bond Odds Fall to 6%
Cavill called himself too old at 42; casting director Nina Gold's multi-film criterion independently disqualifies him. Kalshi prices him at 4%, Polymarket at 7%.
Will Barrett Hold MI-07? GOP Odds Fall to 26%
Republican implied probability fell 12 points in 72 hours after progressive Sunrise Movement co-founder William Lawrence won the Democratic primary, defeating ex-Ambassador Brink.
Republicans Hit 63% to Win MT-01
A 12-point surge from a 50% floor prices partisan fundamentals into an open seat after Zinke's retirement. No single catalyst triggered the move.
Cool Mint Hits 30% in JUUL Relaunch Market
FDA's first non-tobacco, non-menthol ENDS authorization sets precedent for JUUL's Cool Mint, its top-selling pre-ban flavor, with a Dec 31, 2026 resolution date.
TX-15 Democratic Odds Drop to 58%
Pulido leads De La Cruz 45.7% to 44.0% in polls but trails by $2.3M in fundraising, with Kalshi at 60% and Polymarket at 56%.
Dan Osborn at 44% to Receive Sanders Endorsement With No Public Signal
Osborn surged +20pp in 3 days after Sanders backed Brad Lander and a Michigan climate activist, driving a process-of-elimination thesis.
Begich Hits 46% to Win Alaska Governor as Primary Approaches
A 19-point surge in 3 days prices Begich as near coin-flip to win Alaska's governorship, the boldest Democratic gubernatorial bet since Knowles won in 2006.
Tom Tiffany Falls to 30% to Win Wisconsin Governor Race
A 28-point collapse in three days, driven by a Milwaukee ballot delay and a Hong-Crowley primary too competitive to ignore.
Fishback's Florida Primary Second-Place Odds Fall to 24%
Fishback won his ballot eligibility case on July 28, yet his second-place odds dropped 11pp to 24% across Kalshi and Polymarket within three days.
Nevada Governor: Democratic Odds Fall to 38% After 13-Point Drop
Kalshi prices Democrats at 32%, PredictIt at 45%, despite Aaron Ford's 63.3% primary win on June 9. No confirmed catalyst explains the three-day slide.
Adam Driver at 27% for Best Actor Oscar Nomination
Driver's implied probability doubled in 72 hours across Kalshi and Polymarket, with no confirmed project attached to his name.
Kansas Democrats Hit 34% to Win Governor's Race as GOP Primary Splits
A 10-point surge in 3 days reflects a seven-way Republican primary, not Democratic strength. All three major platforms moved in the same direction.
Begich Climbs to 37% to Win Alaska Governor Race Without Clear Catalyst
An 11-point surge in three days with no confirmed news event points to quiet repositioning. Kalshi prices Begich at 40%, PredictIt at 33%.
Seth Moulton Has 12% Chance to Win Massachusetts Senate Primary
Markey's 73% convention delegate haul left Moulton structurally boxed out. Markets price his nomination odds at 12%, down 8pp in three days with no polling to counter it.
Cognetti Favored at 70% to Flip PA-08 After $1.3M Fundraising Edge
Scranton mayor holds $3.3M cash-on-hand vs. Bresnahan's $2M; a partisan poll shows her leading 47-45 in the Trump-carried district.
Will the US Take a Stake in Lockheed Martin Before 2027?
Odds collapsed 35 points to 14% despite a $1.9B Pentagon contract award and strong Q2 2026 earnings. Kalshi and Polymarket now agree.
Grok 4.6 Above-1480 Odds Fall to 15% After Claude Hits 1504
Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking's record 1504 Elo raised the bar. Grok 4.5 sits 155 points below the 1480 threshold, with no launch date confirmed.
BOJ September Hike Odds Reach 60% After 15-Point Jump
Kalshi prices a 25bps BOJ hike at 57% and Polymarket at 62%, with August CPI now the key data point before the September 18 decision.
Will Cavill Be Bond? Markets Say 4% After Age Bar and His Own Words
Cavill, 42, said he is probably too old to start as Bond. Casting directors want a British actor under 30. Odds fell 8pp in three days.