Pulido Leads De La Cruz 51-44 in TX-15 Poll; Market Hits 87%

On the betting market for "Which party will win the House race for TX-15?", Democrat Bobby Pulido traded at 87% on Oct 29, 2026, up from 82% three days earlier. The newest poll located in this check, from Texas Southern University's Barbara Jordan Center (fieldwork Oct 13-16), shows him leading Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz 51% to 44% among likely voters, according to the poll release. The poll and the market point the same way.

Public polling located as of 2026-10-29. Two leading candidates in the newest row; other candidates omitted. Compare like-for-like respondent bases; pollster methods may differ.

Pollster / source	Fieldwork dates	Sample base	Bobby Pulido	Monica De La Cruz	Undecided
Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center	2026-10-13 to 2026-10-16	likely voters	51%	44%	5%
Normington, Petts & Associates	2026-09-24 to 2026-09-28	likely voters	54%	41%	Not reported
Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center	2026-08-18 to 2026-08-22	likely voters	50%	45%	5%
Normington, Petts & Associates	2026-07-23 to 2026-07-27	likely voters	51%	45%	Not reported
Applecart	2026-05-18 to 2026-05-25	likely voters	48%	46%	6%

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Is Bobby Pulido Favored to Win TX-15?

Yes, on both measures, though they measure different things. The Barbara Jordan Center survey of 650 likely voters carries a 3.8-point margin of error, and 5% were undecided, per the release. Pulido's 7-point lead is about 1.8 times that margin. The same survey found independents backing him 55% to 33%, USA TODAY reported. Pulido's vote intention is stated support at a point in time. The 87% price is a win probability. One does not convert into the other.

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What Did the TX-15 Market Do After Sabato Moved the Race to Lean Democratic?

Sabato's Crystal Ball moved TX-15 from Toss-Up to Lean Democratic on Oct 27, 2026, as cited by TexPolls. Pulido's contract gained over the following days. The sources establish only that the rating change came before the move, not that it caused it.

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Within the recorded window, Pulido's low was 81%. On Oct 29, Kalshi priced him at 88% and Polymarket at 86%, a 2-point spread between venues. The 87% figure is the market's implied probability that Pulido's party wins the seat. The remaining 13% covers every other outcome.

Resolved Nov 4, 2026

Which party will win the House race for TX-15?

This market settled on November 4, 2026, so nothing below is tradeable. These are the last prices each venue published before settlement, not live quotes.

Compare every venueClosing prices, not an entry point

The rating shift extends a run of forecaster moves. Cook Political Report took the race to Toss-Up on Sept. 25, and Inside Elections followed on Oct. 15, per TexPolls. The seat sits in a roughly 82% Latino district that Trump carried by about 18 points in 2024, according to Latin Times.

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Are There Polls for Bobby Pulido (D) in TX-15?

Yes. Five likely-voter polls were located in this check, and all show Pulido ahead, by 2 to 13 points. The earlier Barbara Jordan Center survey (Aug 18-22) had him up 50% to 45%, per its release. Normington, Petts & Associates, working for the Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC, found him up 51% to 45% in late July, per the PAC's release, and 54% to 41% in late September. Applecart, a Democratic firm, had him ahead 48% to 46% in May, per its release.

Three of those five come from Democratic-aligned sources. The two nonpartisan Barbara Jordan Center surveys show the narrower leads of 5 and 7 points. Fieldwork for the newest poll ended Oct 16, so it cannot reflect the Oct 27 rating change or later campaign events. Early voting runs through Oct 30, and Election Day is Nov 3, USA TODAY reported.

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How Does the TX-15 Market Settle?

The contract settles on which party wins the TX-15 House seat, with resolution expected Nov 4, 2026. Pulido's contract pays on a Democratic win. Readers should check the exact certification terms on each venue's market page. A poll lead or a forecaster rating does not settle the market. Only the official result under those rules does. Live prices sit on the TX-15 House race odds page.