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Live prediction market odds for Which party will win the House race for TX-15?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Which party will win the House race for TX-15?

2026-11-04

Best price · tap to trade

Bobby Pulido (D)75¢1.33xKalshiMonica De La Cruz (R)23¢4.35xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Bobby Pulido (D) about a 75.5% chance. Monica De La Cruz (R) follows at 25.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.0 percentage points.

Traders give Bobby Pulido (D) about a 75.5% chance. Monica De La Cruz (R) follows at 25.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.0 percentage points.

Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the House race for TX-15 ahead of the 2026 elections. This race is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in Congress, impacting legislative agendas and party strategies.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
BP
Bobby Pulido (D)
76%
Kalshi75¢
Polymarket US76¢
Polymarket76¢
Kalshi1.33x75¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
75.0%74¢75¢25¢26¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
76.0%75¢76¢24¢25¢
PolymarketPolymarket
75.5%75¢76¢24¢25¢
MD
Monica De La Cruz (R)ARB
25%
Kalshi27¢
Polymarket US23¢
Polymarket26¢
Polymarket US4.35x23¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
26.0%26¢27¢73¢74¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
23.0%22¢23¢77¢78¢
PolymarketPolymarket
26.0%25¢26¢74¢75¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Candidate Spotlight

About Bobby Pulido (D)

Bobby Pulido is a Tejano singer and songwriter running as a Democrat for Texas's 15th congressional district in the 2026 election. He is the son of Roberto Pulido, a renowned Tejano music artist, and has won two Latin Grammy Awards. Pulido's popularity and deep connection with the Latino community in South Texas make him a significant contender in this race.

About Monica De La Cruz (R)

Monica De La Cruz is the Republican U.S. Representative for Texas's 15th Congressional District. She was elected in 2022, becoming the first Republican to represent this district since its creation in 1903. De La Cruz serves on the House Committees on Agriculture and Financial Services, focusing on issues pertinent to South Texas.

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Kalshi Rules
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Stats
Spread3.0%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Bobby Pulido (D)

75.5% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Which party will win the House race for TX-15?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for TX-15 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the TX-15 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors could influence the outcome of the TX-15 House race?

Key factors include voter turnout, demographic shifts, and local issues that resonate with constituents. Additionally, national political trends and party support can significantly impact the race.

How do prediction markets reflect public sentiment about the TX-15 race?

Prediction markets aggregate the opinions of participants who wager on outcomes, reflecting their expectations based on current events and polling data. Changes in odds can indicate shifts in public sentiment or emerging campaign dynamics.

What is the historical context of the TX-15 district in elections?

TX-15 has experienced competitive races in recent elections, often reflecting broader national trends. Historical voting patterns and demographic changes in the district play a crucial role in shaping electoral outcomes.

What does the Which party will win the House race for TX-15 prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Which party will win the House race for TX-15 odds?

The latest available prices are Bobby Pulido (D): 75.0¢ on Kalshi, 75.5¢ on Polymarket, 76.0¢ on Polymarket US; Monica De La Cruz (R): 26.0¢ on Kalshi, 26.0¢ on Polymarket, 23.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Final odds

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Democrats Fall to 48% in TX-15An 8-point drop in three days with no news catalyst. De La Cruz won by 57% in 2024 and Ada Cuellar's exit left Democrats with Bobby Pulido as nominee.Aug 14, 2026TX-15 Democratic Odds Drop to 58%Pulido leads De La Cruz 45.7% to 44.0% in polls but trails by $2.3M in fundraising, with Kalshi at 60% and Polymarket at 56%.Aug 12, 2026TX-15 Republican Win Odds Drop to 33% Despite R+7 District LeanKalshi and Polymarket both price TX-15 near 33% Republican. Cook still rates the seat Likely Republican, and no public catalyst has emerged.Aug 6, 2026TX-15: Will Republicans Hold the Seat? Markets Say 26%GOP odds in TX-15 fell 20pp in 72 hours to 26% on Kalshi and Polymarket; Cook Political still rates the seat Lean R as of July 16.Aug 4, 2026