Tom Holland's Year in Search Odds Double Despite Unclear Cause

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Tom Holland's Odds of Topping Google's 2026 Actors List Rise From 8% to 17%

Tom Holland's chances of finishing #1 on Google's Year in Search 2026 Global Actors list more than doubled in three days. Two news items arrived in that window. Avengers director Joe Russo called him "the last great movie star," and Holland posted praise for an old Epik High interview. Google has not yet published its 2026 list, so the question remains open.

On Polymarket, Holland's implied probability rose from 8% to 17% as of Oct. 16, 2026, a gain of about 9 percentage points. The price sits about 10 points above its period low of 7%. It has also recovered from the 12% level Prediction.com reported in September.

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Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Actors: #1 search

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi and Polymarket.

Tom HollandIn this story

7%

PolymarketBest price13.89x7.2¢Kalshi12.50x8¢

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Joe Russo's "Last Great Movie Star" Comments and Holland's Epik High Post Landed in the Same Window

ThatFeed reported on Oct. 15 that Russo called Holland "the last great movie star." CinemaBlend carried Russo's reasoning.

The same coverage also noted a limit. As of mid-October, Holland has not been announced for Avengers: Doomsday, which arrives Dec. 18, or for Avengers: Secret Wars. That weakens the bullish reading of Russo's praise.

Days earlier, Holland shared a clip on his Instagram stories from a July interview with Epik High, captioned "My favorite interview ever," according to the Times of India. In the clip, Zendaya and Jacob Batalon laugh as Holland plugs BERO, his non-alcoholic beer brand. The original video had nearly 4 million views on the group's YouTube channel. Holland also discussed BERO, sobriety and padel in a separate recent interview.

All of this builds on news traders already knew. Spider-Man: Brand New Day opened July 31 and has reportedly grossed about $2.4 billion worldwide. Holland also confirmed his wedding to Zendaya in a June Esquire U.K. interview.

We could not establish what drove the repricing: no source ties the move to any single item, and no search-volume data confirms a rise in Holland searches.

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What Could Confirm or Reverse Holland's Move: Google's Year in Search Release

Even at 17%, the market implies Holland is more likely than not to miss the #1 spot. Other names in recent coverage include Jaafar Jackson, Inde Navarrette and Zendaya. Traders can follow those names on the Google Year in Search 2026 global actors market.

One watch item before the result is an official Avengers: Doomsday casting announcement involving Holland, ahead of the film's Dec. 18 release. Such an announcement could test the new price.

The decisive milestone is Google's publication of Year in Search 2026, which settles the market. The market's resolution date is Dec. 31. Google has not confirmed a release date for the list.