Will Solana Hit $100 in October? Odds Fall to 48% Despite ETF Outflows

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Solana $100 Odds Fall From 78% to 48% as SOL Holds Near $104-106

Solana has not hit $100 in October yet. SOL traded around $106 on Oct 21, according to CoinMarketCap, roughly 6% above that line. In Polymarket's "What price will Solana hit in October?" market, the "↓ 100" contract fell from 78% to 48% over the three days through Oct 21, a 30 percentage point drop. The token slid about 15% from a late-September peak near $125 before stabilizing in a $104-106 range.

Live market odds

2 venues

What price will Solana hit in October?

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Polymarket and Predict.fun.

↓ 100In this story

63%

Polymarket1.54x65¢

↑ 200

2%

PolymarketBest price333.33x0.3¢Predict.fun13.33x7.5¢

↓ 70

2%

Polymarket40.00x2.5¢

3 others under 1%Show all

Compare every venueCents per $1 payout, before fees

We could not find a single news event behind the 30 percentage point drop. The likeliest explanation is distance. Around Oct 15-18, SOL retreated toward $100-102, and a touch looked close. Since then the price has held above $104, and fewer days remain in October for a 6% decline to happen. A contract that pays on a single touch loses implied probability when spot drifts away from the strike and the calendar runs down.

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Why Solana's $100 Downside Case Is Still Alive

ETF outflows. U.S. spot Solana ETFs posted a $2.6 million net outflow on their 12th straight session, TokenPost reported on Oct 21. Cumulative outflows since Oct 2 total about $58.5 million. A separate report put the latest daily figure at $6.7 million. None of the cited sources explains why institutions are redeeming. Glassnode's 7-day average of about -40,000 SOL per day is the deepest reading of 2026.

The chart. Analysts have flagged a possible head-and-shoulders pattern on the daily chart, with a neckline near $100 and a downside target near $80. The pattern stays unconfirmed until price breaks below the neckline. Blockchain.News described SOL as stalled below a dense cluster of moving averages, with MACD converging at zero. Earlier coverage cited the 200-day EMA near $97.95 as key support. That puts the round number, the neckline and a major moving average in the same few dollars.

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What Could Move the Solana $100 Contract Next

The contract resolves Nov 1. It is settled on Binance SOL/USDT one-minute lows, so a brief wick to $100 is enough to resolve it.

Developments that would support the lower odds:

• SOL holds above the $104-106 support band.
• A clean push through resistance at $107-110.56.
• Spot SOL ETFs record their first net inflow since Oct 2.

Developments that would reverse the move:

• A daily close back toward $100-102, the range SOL tested around Oct 15-18.
• The ETF outflow streak extends past 12 sessions.
• Price breaks below the possible head-and-shoulders neckline.

Live pricing for every strike sits on the Solana October price market odds page.